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Key findings

Twelve findings carry the disaster and resilience baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables19 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Governance
    4. 2.4 Health
    5. 2.5 Finance
    6. 2.6 Infrastructure
    7. 2.7 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

Heat is the least counted hazard: Europe alone had an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, yet the recorded disaster total for 2025 shows no extreme-temperature deaths.

Figure 2.1Heat-related deaths against recorded extreme-temperature deaths
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Europe, summer 2022 (estimated)61,672
Europe, 2023 (estimated)47,690
Worldwide, recorded annual average 2005 to 202413,586
Worldwide, recorded in 20250

Sources: Ballester et al.14; Gallo et al.15; EM-DAT1. Estimates and recorded counts use different bases and are not additive.

Implication

WHO estimates about 489,000 heat-related deaths a year worldwide in 2000 to 2019, 45% of them in Asia and 36% in Europe8. Disaster databases record far fewer because heat deaths are often recorded under other causes and counted late. EM-DAT notes that reporting delays kept 2025 heat deaths out of its total, and cites a provisional study of 16,469 preventable heat deaths in European cities in summer 20251. Adaptation matters: Europe’s 2023 burden would have been 80% higher without adaptation since 200015.

What would move it

Revisions to the 2025 EM-DAT figures, national excess-mortality releases for summer 2026 and any WHO update of the global estimate would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    EM-DAT recorded 358 natural-hazard disasters in 2025 with 16,607 deaths, 110.2 million people affected and USD 169.7 billion in losses, below its 2005 to 2024 annual averages of 377 disasters, 57,429 deaths, 169.0 million affected and USD 215.0 billion.1

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010

    About 1.81 billion people (23% of the world) are directly exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood, 89% of them in low- and middle-income countries, and satellite records show the share of people exposed to floods rose 20 to 24% between 2000 and 2015.1617

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

    The year 2025 was the third-warmest on record at 1.47 °C above the 1850 to 1900 level in the ERA5 dataset, and 2023 to 2025 was the first three-year average above 1.5 °C; WMO reported a lower consolidated value in a summary that was not opened.2328

2.3Governance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-002

    Two earthquakes caused most earthquake deaths in 2025: a magnitude 7.7 event in Myanmar (3,820 deaths, USD 11 billion) and a magnitude 6.0 event in Afghanistan (2,200 deaths).1911

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

    119 countries (60%) report a multi-hazard early warning system, small island developing States report 43%, and disaster mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are comprehensive.329

2.4Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-003

    Disasters triggered 29.9 million displacement movements in 2025, 35% fewer than in 2024 and 13% above the decade average; storms caused 17.9 million, and 13.6 million people were living in disaster displacement at year end.2

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007

    Heat is the least counted hazard: an estimated 61,672 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe in summer 2022 and 47,690 in 2023, while EM-DAT records no extreme-temperature deaths for 2025 against a 2005 to 2024 annual average of 13,586.141518

2.5Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Insured natural catastrophe losses were USD 107 billion in 2025 against economic losses of USD 220 billion; wildfire, convective storm and flood made up 92% of insured losses, and the Los Angeles wildfires cost about USD 40 billion insured.4

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

    Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane in October 2025; physical damage is put at USD 8.8 billion by the World Bank and IDB, USD 10 billion by EM-DAT and USD 12.2 billion in the National Hurricane Center report.561

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009

    If all natural disasters could be prevented, 26 million fewer people would be in extreme poverty, and well-being losses from disasters equal a USD 520 billion fall in consumption, 60% more than asset losses.12

2.6Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008

    Infrastructure disruption costs households and firms in low- and middle-income countries between USD 391 billion and USD 647 billion a year, and about 27% of global road and rail assets are exposed to at least one hazard.1320

2.7Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a major cyclone landfall in an island or delta setting where hospitals, power and communications fail together while the poorest households carry the largest well-being loss. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 11US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 6.0, near Asadabad, Afghanistan, 31 August 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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