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Risks and capability

Four disaster and resilience risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

6 min read0 figures1 table24 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS08-CLI-001

    Major tropical cyclone landfall in an island or delta setting

    Driver
    a category 5 landfall such as Melissa, with storm surge and slow rainfall6
    Exposure
    coastal settlements, hospitals, farms and roads; 1.81 billion people face a 1-in-100-year flood16
    Vulnerability
    wooden housing, limited insurance, few pre-emptive evacuations in some islands26
    Capacity
    pre-emptive evacuation, forecasts, rapid damage estimates25
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-HLT-002

    Heat mortality that is under-counted

    Driver
    extreme heat in a warming climate23
    Exposure
    older people, outdoor workers and dense cities; Europe and Asia carry most estimated deaths8
    Vulnerability
    late and uneven mortality reporting; cooling access
    Capacity
    heat action plans, adaptation that avoided 80% more deaths in Europe in 202315
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT → FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-INF-003

    Lifeline failure that propagates through networks

    Driver
    hazards damaging power, transport, water and communications assets1320
    Exposure
    27% of road and rail assets face at least one hazard20
    Vulnerability
    poor maintenance and network interdependence1321
    Capacity
    resilient design with an extra cost of about 3% of investment13
    Cascade
    INF → HLT, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS08-FIN-004

    Protection gap and uninsurability of exposed assets

    Driver
    exposure growth explains more than 80% of the rise in insured weather losses since 19704
    Exposure
    wildfire, convective storm and flood losses growing in several regions4
    Vulnerability
    80% to 90% of losses in emerging economies usually uninsured4
    Capacity
    insurance, contingent finance and loss and damage funding432
    Cascade
    FIN → INF, HLT
    Horizon
    1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for disaster and resilience at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSbuilding codes and land-use rules widespread; enforcement uneven1220
Monitoring and observationADEQUATEearthquake and cyclone monitoring strong9106; loss data thin1
Early warningDEMONSTRATEDabout 1.5 million pre-emptive evacuations in Chile after the tsunami alert2; 119 countries report systems3
Preparedness and planningEXISTSseven Sendai targets and national strategies24
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDcontingent finance and reserve funds documented but not consolidated
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDpre-emptive evacuations ahead of Melissa in Cuba2
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDstandards exist4022; hospitals became non-operational in western Jamaica6
RecoveryEXISTSrapid damage estimate within weeks of Melissa5; about 80% of damaged structures rebuilt in Nepal a decade on1
AdaptationDEMONSTRATEDadaptation avoided an estimated 80% more heat deaths in Europe in 202315
Social protectionLISTEDpoor households carry large well-being losses12; shock-responsive systems not consolidated
Finance and insuranceEXISTSUSD 107 billion insured of USD 220 billion economic losses4
Institutional coordinationEXISTSSendai Framework24; EU civil protection mechanism38
Technical infrastructureEXISTSresilient design case of USD 4.2 trillion net benefit13
WorkforceLISTEDemergency and health workforce not consolidated
Research capacityADEQUATEstrong peer-reviewed base14161718; loss data access uneven1
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 7.7, 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) earthquake, 28 March 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 10US Geological Survey (ed.), Event record M 8.8, 2025 Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia earthquake, 29 July 2025 (earthquake catalogue interface). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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