- Global Disaster and Resilience 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The disaster and resilience baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Disaster is where the systems meet
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 disaster and resilience readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading disaster as a moment of coupling between hazard, exposure and capacity. Recorded impacts were below average in 2025, warning coverage is rising, and the gaps are heat deaths, lifeline failure and the protection gap. Evidence is strongest for recorded impacts and displacement, and weakest for heat and indirect deaths.
CLI-001 · GOV-004 · HLT-007 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people disaster risk arrives as a flood, a heat wave or a lost home. The baseline asks that public debate keep unseen deaths in view, count heat alongside storms and quakes, and recognise that poor households bear the largest loss in well-being.
HLT-003 · HLT-007 · FIN-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Insured losses are USD 107 billion, and most losses in emerging economies are uninsured4. This shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-005 · FIN-006 · INF-008
NEXUS
Synthesis
The disaster system is well measured at the level of events and displacement and thinly measured at the level of heat, indirect deaths and lifeline performance. The 2027 programme should bind regional hazard evidence, test the island cyclone, and fix comparable heat counts.
SYS-012 · DR-01 · DR-03
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for disaster and resilience. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports sector desks | disaster chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability | sector editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
A cyclone is weather until it reaches a hospital, a farm and a budget. The 2025 evidence shows damage moving from housing to health care to finance within weeks. This edition asks where a hazard goes next.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Disaster is a coupling, not an event
EM-DAT, IDMC and the reinsurers each count differently, and heat deaths are missing from the disaster totals. Measuring all of the burden on a comparable basis is the first adaptation.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
What is counted decides what is seen
Chile’s evacuation after a tsunami alert and the lower mortality where warning systems are comprehensive show the return on preparation. Coverage and quality still lag in small island states and least developed countries.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Warning works when it reaches people
Asset losses understate what disasters do to people with little to lose. Resilience that reaches poor households and lifeline networks is part of risk reduction, not separate from it.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Poor households carry the unseen loss
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 disaster and resilience readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Disaster and Resilience risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
- PREPARATORY WORKING DRAFT (2026)
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 203024 | United Nations | global | ADOPTED 2015 | targets |
| Directive on the resilience of critical entities37 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | critical entities |
| Decision on the Union Civil Protection Mechanism, amended 202138 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | civil protection |
| Directive on measures for network and information security (NIS2)39 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | cyber |
| ISO 22301 business continuity management40 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | continuity |
| ISO 22320 emergency management41 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | incident management |
| ISO 37123 indicators for resilient cities42 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | indicators |
| Health emergency and disaster risk management framework22 | WHO | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | health |
| Hazard vocabulary and disaster indicator drafts | Nexus Standards desk | programme | PREPARATORY WORKING DRAFT (2026) | vocabulary |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers disaster and resilience assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about disaster risk and resilience worldwide and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- agency flagships; event and loss databases; peer-reviewed disaster and epidemiology literature; reinsurer statistics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballester et al.14 | journal article | 2023 | supports | heat deaths in Europe, 2022 |
| Gallo et al.15 | journal article | 2024 | supports | heat deaths and adaptation, 2023 |
| Rentschler et al.16 | journal article | 2022 | supports | flood exposure and poverty |
| Tellman et al.17 | journal article | 2021 | supports | satellite flood exposure |
| Kreibich et al.18 | journal article | 2022 | framework | unprecedented floods and dry spells |
| Mora et al.19 | journal article | 2022 | context | infectious disease and climate hazards |
| Pescaroli and Alexander21 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound and cascading risk |
| Zscheischler et al.43 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Hallegatte et al.44 | journal article | 2013 | context | future flood losses in coastal cities |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IPCC AR6 Working Group II summary25 | assessment | 2022 | context | vulnerability, compound risk |
| Global Climate Highlights 202523 | Copernicus Climate Change Service | 2026 | supports | temperature backdrop |
| State of the Global Climate 202528 | WMO | 2026 | context | consolidated temperature |
| Atlas of mortality and economic losses7 | WMO | 2021 | context | long-run disaster statistics |
| Global Assessment Report 202527 | UNDRR | 2025 | context | cost of disasters |
| Hazard information profiles45 | UNDRR and ISC | 2021 | context | hazard vocabulary |
| Sendai Framework 2015 to 203024 | United Nations | 2015 | supports | global targets |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Disasters in numbers, 20251 | CRED, EM-DAT | 2026 | supports | burden and averages |
| Global Report on Internal Displacement 20262 | IDMC | 2026 | supports | displacement |
| Multi-hazard early warning status 2025329 | UNDRR and WMO | 2025 | supports | warning coverage |
| sigma 1/20264 | Swiss Re Institute | 2026 | supports | insured and economic losses |
| Secretary-General report on the Sendai Framework30 | United Nations | 2025 | context | progress against targets |
| Impact of disasters on agriculture31 | FAO | 2023 | context | agricultural loss |
| World Disasters Report 202533 | IFRC | 2025 | context | humanitarian view |
| Global Humanitarian Overview 202634 | OCHA | 2025 | context | humanitarian need |
| US billion-dollar disasters dataset26 | NOAA NCEI | 2025 | gap | US loss series |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbreakable12 | World Bank | 2016 | supports | poverty and well-being |
| Lifelines13 | World Bank | 2019 | supports | infrastructure resilience |
| Koks et al.20 | journal article | 2019 | supports | road and rail exposure |
| Health emergency and disaster risk management framework22 | WHO | 2019 | supports | health resilience |
| Heat and health8 | WHO | 2026 | supports | heat burden |
| Hurricane Melissa report6 | National Hurricane Center | 2026 | supports | event analogue |
| Hurricane Melissa damage estimate5 | World Bank and IDB | 2025 | supports | rapid damage estimate |
| Loss and damage fund documents32 | FRLD Board | 2025 | context | fund operation |
| Lancet Countdown 202535 | journal article | 2025 | context | health and climate |
| Heat deaths in European cities, summer 202536 | research report | 2025 | context | provisional heat deaths |
Where the evidence agrees
Where it is unsettled
- How many people die from heat each year: estimates differ from recorded counts8141
- The total cost of disasters: EM-DAT recorded USD 169.7 billion in 20251 and Swiss Re estimated USD 220 billion4, while UNDRR’s Global Assessment Report estimate of about USD 2.3 trillion a year includes cascading and ecosystem costs and was seen in summaries only27
- The damage from Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica: USD 8.8 billion5, USD 10 billion1 and USD 12.2 billion6
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 4Swiss Re Institute (ed.), Wildfires, storms, floods contribute to record 92% of global insured losses in 2025 (press release on sigma 1/2026, 19 March 2026; the sigma study itself was not opened). Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24UNISDR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (adopted March 2015; full text). United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; the legal database returned an empty page. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Decision (EU) 2021/836 amending Decision No 1313/2013/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union (NIS2), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22301:2019, Security and resilience, Business continuity management systems, requirements. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22320:2018, Security and resilience, Emergency management, guidelines for incident management. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37123:2019, Sustainable cities and communities, Indicators for resilient cities. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3WMO (ed.), Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (press release on the UNDRR and WMO Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, 12 November 2025; the full report was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD), Board documents and the Barbados Implementation Modalities start-up phase of USD 250 million (pledges of about USD 790 million in search summaries); the fund pages refused retrieval. FRLD Secretariat, Songdo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hallegatte, S., Green, C., Nicholls, R.J. and Corfee-Morlot, J., Future flood losses in major coastal cities, Nature Climate Change 3, 802 to 806, 2013, cited from memory. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (2025 at about 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, second or third warmest year), taken from search-result summaries; the WMO pages returned errors. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7WMO (ed.), WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes (WMO-No. 1267, 2021); publication page and the library description of the updated dataset for 1970 to 2021 (nearly 12 000 disasters, USD 4.3 trillion, 2 million deaths) were opened, not the full atlas. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021 (data 1970 to 2021). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, Financing and Investing for our Future (total disaster cost of about USD 2.3 trillion a year including cascading and ecosystem costs; direct costs of USD 180 to 200 billion a year in 2001 to 2020), taken from search-result summaries and a republished summary on a third-party portal; the publisher pages refused retrieval. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and ISC (eds.), Hazard Information Profiles, supplement to the UNDRR-ISC Hazard Definition and Classification Review, 2021, cited from memory. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (full report); only the press release [3] was read. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General, Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (report A/80/333, August 2025), identified from search results; the document service returned an empty page. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRC (ed.), World Disasters Report 2025. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OCHA (ed.), Global Humanitarian Overview 2026. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (data page; opened, no figures were retrieved from it). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M. and Rozenberg, J., Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters. World Bank, Washington, 2017. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (eds.), World Bank, IDB estimate Hurricane Melissa damage to Jamaica totals all-time high of US$8.8 billion (press release on the Global Rapid Damage Estimation, 19 November 2025). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, 2025; the record was found without an abstract and no figure is used. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: research report on heat-related deaths in European cities in summer 2025 (provisional estimate of 16,469 preventable deaths), cited in the EM-DAT report [1]; the study itself was not opened and no figure rests on this entry alone. Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back