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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables16 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Disaster and water
    2. 8.2 Disaster and energy
    3. 8.3 Disaster and food
    4. 8.4 Disaster and health
    5. 8.5 Disaster, nature and cascading risk
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Disaster and water

Most disaster impact reaches people through floods, storm surge and dry spells. Flood exposure is large, concentrated in poorer countries and still rising.

1.81billion

people exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood16

255 to 290million

people directly affected by 913 large floods, 2000 to 201817

89%

of flood-exposed people live in low- and middle-income countries16

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
River and coastal floods1.81 billion people exposed; 170 million face high flood risk and extreme poverty16Reported
Satellite recordshare of people exposed to floods rose 20 to 24% from 2000 to 201517Reported
Unprecedented eventsrisk management cuts impacts but struggles with events beyond design levels18Reported
Dry spellsSyria and Somalia dry spells affected 16.2 million and 6.5 million people in 20251Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → WAT floods and surge
  • WAT → HLT contamination and outbreaks
  • WAT → FOO crop and herd loss

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • flood losses by country on one basis
  • dry-spell mortality

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.2Disaster and energy

Power is the lifeline that other lifelines depend on. Storms and quakes cut supply, and the loss then reaches hospitals, pumps and communications.

18USD billion

a year of direct damage to power and transport assets in low- and middle-income countries13

3%

extra cost of building resilience into new infrastructure13

4.2USD trillion

median net benefit of resilient infrastructure, low- and middle-income countries13

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Outages after stormspower outages affected a large part of the population of Jamaica after Melissa6Reported
Service disruptioninfrastructure disruption costs USD 391 billion to USD 647 billion a year13Estimated
Network propagationinterconnected networks pass local shocks onward21Inferred
Hazard exposure27% of road and rail assets exposed to at least one hazard20Reported

Couplings

  • INF ↔ ENE outage and restoration
  • ENE → HLT clinics and hospitals
  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power restoration times after major events
  • hospital backup supply

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.3Disaster and food

Floods, storms and dry spells destroy crops, herds and the roads that carry food. The loss in income and supply outlasts the hazard.

41,390hectares

of Jamaican farmland affected by Melissa6

1.25million

animals reported dead in Jamaica after Melissa6

6.5million

people affected by drought in Somalia, 20251

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Cropsmore than 70,000 farmers lost crops in Jamaica; coffee production fell an estimated 45%6Reported
Livestockmore than 1.25 million animals perished6Reported
Dry spellsSomalia and Syria dry spells affected 6.5 million and 16.2 million people1Reported
Global agricultural lossa published global estimate was seen in summaries only31Expert input

Couplings

  • CLI → FOO crops and herds
  • WAT → FOO floods and dry spells
  • FOO → HLT hunger after loss

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • global agricultural loss from primary document
  • food access after events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.4Disaster and health

Disaster reaches health through heat, injury, failed hospitals and outbreaks. The least visible channel, heat, is also among the largest.

489,000deaths

estimated heat-related deaths a year, 2000 to 20198

61,672deaths

estimated in Europe in summer 202214

58%

of 375 known human infectious diseases aggravated by climate hazards19

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Heatestimated deaths exceed recorded deaths by a wide margin814151Reported
Hospitalsseveral hospitals sustained serious structural damage and some became non-operational after Melissa6Reported
Outbreaksa leptospirosis outbreak followed the floods in Jamaica6Reported
Health system frameworkWHO sets out prevention, preparedness, response and recovery for health emergencies22Reported

Couplings

  • CLI → HLT heat and disease
  • INF → HLT hospital failure
  • WAT → HLT contamination

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat deaths worldwide on one basis
  • indirect deaths after events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

8.5Disaster, nature and cascading risk

Hazards intensify with warming, compound with each other and cascade through connected systems. Nature is both a buffer and a casualty, and it is the unmeasured side of this ledger.

1.47°C

above 1850 to 1900 in 2025, ERA523

1.52°C

three-year mean for 2023 to 2025, ERA523

3.3 to 3.6billion

people in contexts highly vulnerable to climate change25

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Temperature2025 was the third-warmest year; 2023 to 2025 averaged above 1.5 °C23Reported
Compound and cascading riskmultiple hazards and interacting risks compound and transmit through connected systems2521Reported
WildfireUSD 53.9 billion of recorded losses in 2025 against a USD 6.8 billion average1Reported
Ecosystem bufferseffects of habitats on flood and fire losses not consolidated here18Expert input

Couplings

  • CLI → BIO habitat and fire
  • BIO → WAT wetlands and forests buffer floods
  • INF → FIN cascading loss

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem effects on loss
  • attribution of single events

Related editions

  • GLB Global Systems
  • GS-04 Health and One Health
  • GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
  • GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
  • GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics
  • SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 16Rentschler, J., Salhab, M. and Jafino, B.A., Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries, Nature Communications 13, 3527, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17Tellman, B. et al., Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods, Nature 596, 80 to 86, 2021 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2018 (events 2000 to 2018). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 18Kreibich, H. et al., The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management, Nature 608, 80 to 86, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 13Hallegatte, S., Rentschler, J. and Rozenberg, J., Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. World Bank, Washington, 2019. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 21Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D., Understanding compound, interconnected, interacting, and cascading risks: a holistic framework, Risk Analysis 38(11), 2245 to 2257, 2018 (abstract opened). Wiley, Hoboken. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 20Koks, E.E. et al., A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nature Communications 10, 2677, 2019 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The Impact of Disasters on Agriculture and Food Security 2023 (about USD 3.8 trillion of crop and livestock loss over 30 years in search summaries); the publisher page returned an access page instead of the report. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8WHO (ed.), Heat and health, fact sheet (version of 31 July 2026). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022 (estimates for 2000 to 2019 and summer 2022). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 1857 to 1866, 2023 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 19Mora, C. et al., Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change, Nature Climate Change 12, 869, 2022 (open-access full text). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15Gallo, E. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during 2023 and the role of adaptation in protecting health, Nature Medicine 30, 3101 to 3105, 2024 (abstract opened). Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 22WHO (ed.), Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management Framework (2019), publication page. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 23Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (full report). ECMWF for the European Commission, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 25IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report, Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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