Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 disaster and resilience agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 disaster and resilience edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Disaster is where the systems meet
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Major cyclone landfall with lifeline and health-system failure
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the disaster and resilience candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. DR-01

    How would a major cyclone landfall that disables hospitals, power and communications travel through health, food and finance at once?

    INI-GS08-CYC-01 · island cyclone and lifeline failure; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

  2. DR-02

    Where do infrastructure assets sit in hazard zones, and which services fail first?

    INI-GS08-LFL-02 · lifeline exposure; first output: exposure register by region.

  3. DR-03

    How many people die from heat each year, and how can the count be made comparable across countries?

    INI-GS08-HTD-03 · heat mortality on one basis; first output: method note and country coverage table.

  4. DR-04

    Which disaster loss and damage data meet a common standard, and which do not?

    INI-GS08-LOS-04 · loss data quality; first output: data quality register.

  5. DR-05

    Where is the protection gap widest, and what would close it?

    INI-GS08-PRO-05 · protection gap; first output: cover and finance overlay.

  6. DR-06

    Which hazard corridors lack shared warning and contingency arrangements?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

  7. DR-07

    How does anticipatory action change displacement and loss outcomes?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. DR-08

    Which disaster capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    Disaster capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 disaster portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-GS08-CYC-01Island cyclone and lifeline failureInitiativeDR-01PROPOSED
INI-GS08-LFL-02Lifeline exposureInitiativeDR-02PROPOSED
INI-GS08-HTD-03Heat mortality on one basisInitiativeDR-03PROPOSED
INI-GS08-LOS-04Loss data qualityInitiativeDR-04PROPOSED
INI-GS08-PRO-05Protection gapInitiativeDR-05PROPOSED
MSN-GS08-2027-01Island cyclone Universe missionMissionDR-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The disaster edition reads national disaster chapters, regional hazard and warning evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global disaster chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National disaster chapters

    disaster risk chapter of each national edition

    DRAFTED · further national baselines

  2. 02

    Hazard and warning evidence

    shared hazard corridors, coasts and fault systems

    PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Disaster sector model

    the global disaster system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Global and strategic links

    GLB Global Systems · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Global Disaster and Resilience Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the disaster and resilience candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the disaster and resilience candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 global annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-GS08-2027-01 · Island cyclone Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · burdenpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
GOV-004 · warningINI-GS08-CYC-01island cyclone and lifeline failurePUBLIC
HLT-003 · displacementINI-GS08-LOS-04loss data qualityPUBLIC
HLT-007 · heatINI-GS08-HTD-03heat mortality on one basisPUBLIC
FIN-005 · insured lossesINI-GS08-PRO-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
INF-008 · lifelinesINI-GS08-LFL-02lifeline exposurePUBLIC
FIN-006 · Melissaregional consortiahazard corridor overlayPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-GS08-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Disasters in numbers and the EM-DAT databaseCREDannual and continuousCLI-001
Global Report on Internal DisplacementIDMCannualHLT-003
Status of multi-hazard early warning systemsUNDRR and WMOannualGOV-004
Natural catastrophe sigma seriesSwiss Re InstituteannualFIN-005
Tropical cyclone reportsNational Hurricane Centerper stormFIN-006
Earthquake catalogue and event pagesUS Geological SurveycontinuousGOV-002
Global Climate Highlights and monthly bulletinsCopernicus Climate Change Servicemonthly and annualCLI-011

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-GS08-001Heat deaths are missing from the 2025 recorded totals1CORROBORATEDHLT · CLIresearch question DR-03
SIG-GS08-002Pre-emptive evacuation changed outcomes in Cuba and Chile2CORROBORATEDHLT · INFresearch question DR-01
SIG-GS08-003Hospitals stopped working after Melissa in western Jamaica6PARTIALINF · HLTinitiative DR-02

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1CRED (ed.), 2025 Disasters in numbers: Earth, Wind and Fire (EM-DAT annual report, reference date 17 March 2026). Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels. Observation year 2025 (with 2005 to 2024 annual averages). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2IDMC (ed.), Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026 (summary and full report, 12 May 2026). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6NOAA National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Melissa (revised version, damage cost updated to 26 March 2026). National Hurricane Center, Miami. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Global Disaster and Resilience Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Disaster Risk and Resilience Worldwide. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-DISASTER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

ReportsContribute

Send evidence or a correction on Global Disaster and Resilience.

Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) Systems Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.

GCRI Systems Evidence deskGlobal Sector Risk and Resilience

Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.

CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

Science · evidence · measurement

Not for profit

Our articles, maps and twins are free to read and free to republish. Readers and partners keep it that way.

Partner with us

Who funds us

GCRI is a not-for-profit institution. To ask who funds a piece of work, use the funding questions form.

Independence

Editors and the expert reviewers named on each article decide what we publish. Funders and partners do not review or approve articles before publication.

Corrections policy

Licence

Articles: CC BY 4.0. Figures, maps, twins and data: CC BY 4.0. Other uses: ask through the permissions form.

Privacy choices