Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Indonesia (Republik Indonesia) enters 2027 as an economy of 285.7 million people and about US$1.45 trillion of output in 2025, growing 5.1% that year13. Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 in 20234. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024 and hydro 7.4%, while wind and solar supplied 0.5%8. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall national effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 20359. Indonesia is a net energy exporter, yet its food system leans on trade in wheat: the FAO forecasts near-record imports of 11.5 million tonnes in 2025/26, while the 2025 paddy crop was put at 59 million tonnes10. Floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra at the turn of 2025 and 2026 caused crop losses10. Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 20236. Hazard loss records, the national inventory, water supply, food balance and ministry series could not be read at evidence close and appear as designed gaps with their source and blocker. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Indonesia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which rain, geophysical and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Indonesia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024. The inventory including land use is not bound.419

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall effort critically insufficient and reports a net zero goal for 2060.9

    Is Indonesia on course for its climate goals?Reported

  3. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of generation in 2024; hydro supplied 7.4%.8

    How secure is electricity?Reported

  4. Paddy output was 59 million tonnes in 2025, and wheat imports are forecast near a record.10

    How secure is food?Reported

  5. Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023.6

    Is nutrition a health risk?Reported

  6. Protected land was 12.0% in 2025; water supply series are not bound.555

    What about water and nature?Reported

  7. The IMF projects 5.0% growth and 3.0% inflation for 2026.7

    What does the economy look like?Reported

  8. A flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands that cuts roads, power and harvests together. SCN-IDN-FLD-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

Greenhouse-gas emissions excluding land use were 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up from 1,261.3 Mt CO₂e in 2023 and 1,181.3 Mt CO₂e in 2022.

Figure S.1Emissions excluding land use (Mt CO₂e)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
20221,181.3
20231,261.3
20241,323.8

Source: World Bank WDI emissions series4.

Emissions rose while Climate Action Tracker puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 141% in 20359. With fossil fuels supplying 82% of electricity8, the power system is the first system to watch. Land use and peat, which the national inventory covers, are not bound here19.

S.4At a glance

285.7million

population, 20251

1.45US$ trillion

GDP, 20253

5,120US$

GNI per capita, Atlas method, 20253

59.4%

urban population, 20252

38provinces

administrative units14

Not bound

provincial population structure17

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Indonesia’s risk: rising emissions, an electricity mix that is 82% fossil, high wheat imports and recent flood losses on Sumatra.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a landslide or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the effort gap to a 1.5 °C pathway points to large investment in the power system.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Indonesia’s emissions, power, crop and nutrition series are readable now; water, hazard-loss, inventory and nature series are not.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Indonesia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
  3. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  4. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
  5. 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
  6. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  7. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
  8. 19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  9. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  10. 55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  11. 7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
  13. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), “Indonesia.” Wikimedia Foundation. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia. Used only for the count of 38 provinces; the primary source, the Ministry of Home Affairs, was not read.back
  14. 17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/enback

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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