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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands cut roads, power, markets and harvests together?

    INI-IDN-CLI-01 · island lifelines; first output: dependency graph for two island groups.

  2. A-02

    How deep are fuel, coal and grid reserves against a supply or price shock?

    INI-IDN-ENE-02 · power system resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are rice, maize and wheat supply to concurrent domestic and import shocks?

    INI-IDN-FOO-03 · food import exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How do stunting, ageing and urbanisation change service demand across provinces?

    INI-IDN-HLT-04 · population and nutrition; first output: provincial demand baseline.

  5. A-05

    Where do flood, landslide and earthquake losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?

    INI-IDN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.

  6. A-06

    How do river basins and reservoirs perform under more intense rainfall and drought?

    INI-IDN-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    How do land subsidence and sea-level exposure in the capital region combine with flood risk?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?

    National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-IDN-CLI-01Island lifelines under flood and landslideInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-IDN-ENE-02Power system resilience and fuel dependenceInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-IDN-FOO-03Food and grain import exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-IDN-HLT-04Population, nutrition and service demandInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-IDN-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-IDN-CLI-01aTwo-island-group lifeline dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-IDN-2027-01Flood, landslide and harvest Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

Indonesia is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Indonesia from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-IDN-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-IDN-2027-01 · Flood, landslide and harvest Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mixINI-IDN-ENE-02power system resiliencePUBLIC
FOO-005 · paddyINI-IDN-FOO-03import exposurePUBLIC
CLI-007 · Sumatra floodsINI-IDN-CLI-01island lifeline graphPUBLIC
HLT-008 · stuntingINI-IDN-HLT-04population and nutritionPUBLIC
HLT-009 · populationINI-IDN-HLT-04provincial demand baselinePUBLIC
FIN-011 · economyINI-IDN-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-IDN-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Weather warnings and climate datanational meteorological agency (BMKG)real timeCLI findings
Disaster recordsnational disaster management agency (BNPB)per eventCLI-007
Electricity supply and demandstate electricity company (PLN) and ministryper publisher scheduleENE findings
Statistical releasesStatistics Indonesia (BPS)per release calendarHLT-009
Health survey and nutrition dataMinistry of Healthper surveyHLT-008
Crop monitoringFAO GIEWSper briefFOO-005
Electricity dataEmberannualENE-003

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-IDN-001Emissions excluding land use rose in 2023 and 20244CORROBORATEDCLI · ENErisk object RSK-IDN-ENE-003
SIG-IDN-002Floods and landslides hit three Sumatran provinces10CORROBORATEDCLI · FOOinitiative A-01
SIG-IDN-003Wheat imports forecast near a record10CORROBORATEDFOO · TRDrisk object RSK-IDN-FOO-002

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  2. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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