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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables17 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Safely managed drinking water, water loss and flood records are not bound in this edition. The one bound series shows annual withdrawals at 11.0% of internal resources in 2022, a value the series carries unchanged from 2018.

11.0%

withdrawals, share of internal resources, 20225

19.4%

urban population in slums, 20226

Not bound

safely managed drinking water55

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Withdrawals11.0% of internal resources; series flat since 20185Reported
Drinking waternot bound; source: WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme55NOT BOUND
Floodsnot bound; source: disaster records16NOT BOUND
Infrastructurenot bound; source: ministry asset records24NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT heavy rain and drought
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and flooding
  • INF → WAT pumping and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • safely managed drinking water
  • flood loss records

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024 and hydro 7.4%, yet Indonesia was a net energy exporter.

82%

fossil share of electricity, 20248

7.4%

hydro share, 20248

−92.8%

net energy imports; negative means exporter, 20244

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Power mixfossil 82%, clean 18%8Reported
Wind and solar0.5% of generation8Reported
Access99.9% of the population with electricity4Reported
Generation by fuel and reservesnot bound; source: ministry energy statistics and the supply plan2021NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → ENE fuel trade
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → ENE hydro and peak demand
  • ENE → WAT pumping

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • generation by fuel
  • grid reserve margins and fuel stocks

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, and wheat imports are forecast near a record, so food security is a harvest and a trade question.

59million t

paddy production, 202510

15.3million t

maize production, 202510

11.5million t

wheat imports forecast, 2025/2610

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Paddy59 million tonnes, about 9% above average10Reported
Maize15.3 million tonnes, about 5% above average10Reported
Wheatnear-record imports forecast10Reported
Self-sufficiencynot bound; source: national food balance22NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • TRD → FOO import dependence
  • ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
  • CLI → FOO floods and rainfall

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • self-sufficiency ratios
  • import concentration by origin

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 2023, and the population is young: 7.5% were aged 65 or over in 2025.

22.0%

stunting, children under five, 20236

71.3years

life expectancy at birth, 20242

2.7% of GDP

health expenditure, 20236

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Nutritionstunting 22.0%, down from 30% in 20186Reported
Population7.5% aged 65 or over; 59.4% urban2Reported
Spendingcurrent health expenditure 2.7% of GDP6Reported
Surveillancenot bound; source: Ministry of Health survey and surveillance records23NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat, flood and haze
  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • INF → HLT access to care

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • disease and heat surveillance
  • care continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Forest covered 50.7% of land in 2024 and protected areas covered 12.0% in 2025, against a global target of 30% by 2030. Deforestation, peat and condition records are not bound.

50.7%

forest area, share of land, 20245

12.0%

protected land, 20255

30%

global target by 203040

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Forest50.7% of land area5Reported
Protection12.0% of land5Reported
Carbon stockspeer-reviewed work assesses Indonesian mangroves as a large carbon store52Reported
Deforestation and peatnot bound; source: forest loss and national inventory records1925NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO fisheries and pollination
  • CLI → BIO fire and haze

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • forest loss and peat records
  • condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
  2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
  3. 55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  4. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
  5. 24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  6. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
  7. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  8. 20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  9. 21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  10. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  11. 22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
  13. 23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  14. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  15. 52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
  16. 19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  17. 25Global Nature Watch (ed.), “Indonesia deforestation rates and statistics.” Global Nature Watch. Source for a designed gap; the page returned a title only at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://globalnaturewatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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