Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables43 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
    1. 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
    2. 6.2 Three lenses
    3. 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
    4. 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
    5. 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
    6. 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack
    7. 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
    8. 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRF Public DeliberationNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
GRA Capital ReadinessNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Standards ProgressOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Academy CapabilityOutside this desk’s remitNot in remit
Index MeasurementNo edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Indonesia’s risk: rising emissions, an electricity mix that is 82% fossil, high wheat imports and recent flood losses on Sumatra. Evidence is strongest for emissions, the power mix and crop outlooks, and weakest for water, hazard losses, nature and the national inventory, which are not bound.

CLI-001 · ENE-003 · FOO-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a flood, a landslide or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how island geography changes who can be reached and how fast places recover.

CLI-007 · HLT-008 · SYS-012

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The protection gap and public-asset cover are not bound, and the effort gap to a 1.5 °C pathway points to large investment in the power system. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-011 · CLI-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

Indonesia’s emissions, power, crop and nutrition series are readable now; water, hazard-loss, inventory and nature series are not. The 2027 programme should bind them, map island lifeline dependencies, and measure grain import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Indonesia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
QuarterEditionQuestionBoundary
Q1State and AgendaWhat matters this year, and what is the starting position?observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2Evidence and BuildWhat new evidence and capability have been developed?a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3Stress Test and ReadinessWhat do scenarios and tests reveal?simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4Annual Synthesis and RenewalWhat did the year establish, and what changes next?release follows review, not event publicity deadlines
Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or bodyRoleContribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standardspreparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methodsStandards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academylearning pathways tied to the agenda questionsAcademy gateway · learning by review
Indonesianational pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groupsnational Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

  • Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
  • Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
  • Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

  • Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
  • Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
  • Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Emissions excluding land use rose through 2024 and the tracker puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 141% in 2035. The baseline reads this as a question about the power system and land use, not about a single sector.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

An effort far from the pathway

Indonesia exports more energy than it uses, yet fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity. Energy security and the transition are separate questions here, and both depend on series not yet bound.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Energy exporter, fossil grid

A large paddy crop and near-record wheat imports sit beside flood losses in Sumatra. Food security is a harvest question and a trade question at once.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Food depends on weather and trade

This edition names the series it could not read. A gap printed with its source and blocker is more useful to a reviewer than an estimate that cannot be checked.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

What is not yet bound

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
ItemRegisterState at baselineFirst Q1 2027 entry
E1National risk state deltabaseline set by this editionchanges against the baseline
E2WEFH+B state deltafive system readings setindicator updates and freshness
E3Agenda and Portfolio movementeight agenda items · 7 proposed objectsadmission decisions
E4NWG delivery registerno groups yetfirst monthly outputs
E5NNC capability registermembership opens in Q1 2027first contributions
E6NLC questions and challengesnone yetfirst challenge log
E7Foundry technical stateenvironment preparedfirst sealed cut
E8Publication candidatestwelve findings carried forwardPUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9Universe readinessone candidate missionadmission and role spine
E10Correction registernonefirst correction cycle

Publication dispositions

  • Publish
  • Hold
  • Needs evidence
  • Restricted
  • Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

  • IN FORCE
  • ADOPTED
  • SUBMITTED
  • UNDER REVIEW
  • PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
InstrumentBodyScopeStatusRelevance
Paris Agreement · Second NDC; Enhanced NDC of 2022111341UNFCCC · IndonesianationalSUBMITTED 2025emissions pathway
Presidential Regulation 98 of 2021, carbon economic value28Government of IndonesianationalISSUED 2021carbon market
Law 7 of 2021, harmonisation of tax regulations29Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2021carbon tax
Presidential Regulation 112 of 2022, renewable energy30Government of IndonesianationalISSUED 2022power mix
Law 24 of 2007, disaster management15Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2007disaster management
Kunming-Montreal Framework40CBDinternationalADOPTED 202230by30
Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance26OJKfinancial sectorSTATUS NOT BOUNDfinance
Sendai Framework 2015–203039UNDRRinternationalADOPTED 2015risk reduction
Law 17 of 2019, water resources32Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2019water governance
Law 18 of 2012, food33Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2012food governance
Law 17 of 2023, health34Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2023health governance
Law 3 of 2022, state capital31Government of IndonesianationalENACTED 2022capital relocation
Just Energy Transition Partnership investment plan35JETP SecretariatnationalPUBLISHED 2023energy transition finance

Changed since 2024

  • Indonesia submitted its Second NDC in 20251112
  • Climate Action Tracker lists an update to its Indonesia assessment dated 28 September 20269
  • The IMF Executive Board completed its latest Article IV consultation on 14 January 20267

To watch in 2027

  • Status of sustainability disclosure standards for listed companies27
  • Revisions to the electricity supply plan21
  • Implementation rules for the carbon economic value regulation28

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question
What does the published evidence establish about Indonesia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched
peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window
releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection
sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step
systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027
Table 6.5Science and assessments
ReferenceTypeYearRoleUsed for
Lee and Romero (eds.)38assessment2023contextforcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)42assessment2024frameworknexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.43journal article2018frameworkcompound events
Abidin et al.51journal article2011supportsland subsidence
WMO State of the Climate in Asia48assessment2025contextregional climate
IEA Global Energy Review37assessment2025contextglobal energy
Table 6.6Institutional reports
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Disaster management law15Government of Indonesia2007supportsdisaster governance
Second NDC11Government of Indonesia2025supportstarget
Carbon economic value regulation28Government of Indonesia2021contextcarbon pricing
Renewable energy regulation30Government of Indonesia2022contextenergy pathway
OECD Economic Survey46OECD2024contextfiscal
Energy Policy Review36IEA2022contextenergy policy
Country Climate and Development Report56World Bank2023contextclimate and development
Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Population, GDP and health indicators1236World Bank2025supportsprofile
Electricity data8Ember2024supportspower mix
Crop monitoring10FAO2026supportspaddy, wheat, floods
Country record7IMF2026supportsgrowth projection
Food security assessment54FAO and partners2025contextfood
Forest Resources Assessment57FAO2025contextforests
Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
ReferenceIssuerYearRoleUsed for
Financial sector regulation2627OJK2024contextfinance
NatCatSERVICE50Munich Re2026contextglobal losses
Emissions Gap Report49UNEP2025contextambition gap
Global Assessment Report47UNDRR2025contextdisaster finance

Where the evidence agrees

  • Heavy rain extremes are intensifying across Asia3848
  • Compound events raise risk beyond single hazards43
  • Land subsidence raises flood risk in the capital region51

Where it is unsettled

  • How fast fossil generation can fall against the effort gap89
  • How land use and peat emissions should be combined with the energy series419
  • How disaster losses and deaths are recorded and counted16

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
  2. 13Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close.back
  3. 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
  4. 28Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 98 of 2021 on the Implementation of Carbon Economic Value. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
  5. 29Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonisation of Tax Regulations. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021.back
  6. 30Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  7. 15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
  8. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  9. 26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close.back
  10. 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
  11. 32Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2019 on Water Resources. Jakarta, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
  12. 33Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 18 of 2012 on Food. Jakarta, 2012. Observation year 2012.back
  13. 34Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2023 on Health. Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  14. 31Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 3 of 2022 on the State Capital. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
  15. 35Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership Secretariat (ed.), Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. JETP Secretariat, Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close.back
  16. 12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesiaback
  17. 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
  18. 7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
  19. 27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
  20. 21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  21. 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
  22. 42P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
  23. 43J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
  24. 51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
  25. 48World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  26. 37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024.back
  27. 46OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
  28. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Indonesia 2022: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close.back
  29. 56World Bank (ed.), Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close.back
  30. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  31. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
  32. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
  33. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
  34. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
  35. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  36. 54FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close.back
  37. 57Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Not opened at evidence close.back
  38. 50Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025.back
  39. 49United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  40. 47UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
  41. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  42. 19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  43. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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