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Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

7 min read2 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Indonesia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Five system chapters
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Indonesia is an archipelago economy of 285.7 million people, with about US$1.45 trillion of output in 202513. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a hazard regime of heavy rain, floods and landslides on top of a geophysical setting that this edition has not yet bound, a power system that still runs mostly on fossil fuel, and a food system that leans on imported wheat.

The climate-policy layer is demanding. Emissions excluding land use reached 1,323.8 Mt CO₂e in 2024, up 5.0% on 20234. Climate Action Tracker rates the overall effort critically insufficient and puts the gap to a 1.5 °C pathway at 112% in 2030 and 141% in 20359. Indonesia submitted a Second NDC in 2025, but the text was not read for this edition1112.

The energy layer shows the scale of the shift needed. Fossil fuels supplied 82% of electricity in 2024, hydro 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%8. Indonesia is nonetheless a net energy exporter, with net energy imports of minus 92.8% of energy use in 20244. Generation by fuel and grid reserves are not bound2021.

Food security rests on domestic crops and on trade. The 2025 paddy crop was officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, and wheat imports are forecast at a near-record 11.5 million tonnes in 2025/2610. Floods and landslides in Sumatra at the turn of 2025 and 2026 caused crop losses10. Self-sufficiency ratios are not bound22.

The population layer is young and urbanising. Only 7.5% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025, and 59.4% lived in urban areas2. Stunting affected 22.0% of children under five in 20236. Fertility stood at 2.1 births per woman in 20242.

This edition therefore reads Indonesia’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How much of Indonesia’s electricity is clean? Electricity shares, 2024 (%)

Clean sources supplied 18% of electricity, against 41% for the world; wind and solar supplied 0.5%8.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Fossil fuels82
Clean sources18
Hydro7.4
Wind and solar0.5

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-01-003

82%

fossil share, 20248

18%

clean share, 20248

7.4%

hydro, 20248

57%

renewable electricity benchmark for 20309

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Indonesia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
nuclear cooling · hydro		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		MODERATE
drinking water		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · treatment		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
facility power · cooling		MODERATE
reservoirs · land use
FOO FoodMODERATE
withdrawals · nutrients		WEAK
biofuel feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
fire on lines · biomass		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · smoke		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → INF

    Heavy rain floods and triggers landslides, cutting roads and power.

    Reported Sumatra, late 202510

  2. 02

    CLI → WAT → FOO

    Floods destroy standing crops and delay planting.

    Reported Sumatra, late 202510

  3. 03

    TRD → FOO

    A wheat price or shipping shock reaches food prices.

    Expert input wheat imports 2025/2610

  4. 04

    ENE → HLT

    A power outage interrupts clinics and cold chains.

    Expert input event record not bound16

  5. 05

    CLI → BIO → HLT

    Fire and haze affect forests, air and health.

    Reported haze analysis53

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=jsonback
  2. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
  3. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=jsonback
  4. 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
  5. 11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
  6. 12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesiaback
  7. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
  8. 20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  9. 21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  10. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
  11. 22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  12. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=jsonback
  13. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
  14. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
  15. 53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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