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Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table13 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-CLI-001

    Heavy rain, flood and landslide

    Driver
    intense rainfall on steep and flat terrain
    Exposure
    floodplains, hill settlements, rice land
    Vulnerability
    not bound at public-safe resolution
    Capacity
    not bound
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT → INF, FOO, HLT
    Horizon
    annual

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-FOO-002

    Harvest loss and import shock

    Driver
    crop losses and grain price spikes
    Exposure
    rice and maize growers; wheat-based foods
    Vulnerability
    self-sufficiency not bound22
    Capacity
    reserve stocks not bound22
    Cascade
    TRD → FOO → HLT, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. ReportedEQL 3RSK-IDN-ENE-003

    Fossil dependence and supply disruption

    Driver
    fuel price spike or plant outage
    Exposure
    power, industry, households
    Vulnerability
    generation by fuel not bound20
    Capacity
    reserve margins not bound21
    Cascade
    ENE → HLT, FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-IDN-SEI-004

    Geophysical hazards and subsidence near dense settlement

    Driver
    earthquake, volcanic or subsidence processes
    Exposure
    cities, ports, coasts
    Vulnerability
    not bound; land subsidence in Jakarta documented51
    Capacity
    not bound
    Cascade
    SEI → INF, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster agency records16 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Monitoring and observationNOT BOUNDsource: national weather and geophysics agency records18 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: weather and disaster agency records1618 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planningNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster plans under the disaster management law15 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: energy and food reserve records2022 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: disaster agency records16 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: operator continuity records21 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
RecoveryNOT BOUNDsource: recovery programme records16 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
AdaptationNOT BOUNDsource: national adaptation plans11 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: national social insurance records17 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: financial regulator reports2627 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Institutional coordinationNOT BOUNDsource: disaster management law15 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: operator asset records24 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: ministry workforce statistics23 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Research capacityNOT BOUNDsource: national research statistics17 · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  2. 20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  3. 21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  4. 51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
  5. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
  6. 18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  7. 15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
  8. 11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12].back
  9. 17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/enback
  10. 26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close.back
  11. 27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
  12. 24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
  13. 23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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