- Indonesia 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
WAT · Water
Safely managed drinking water
Not boundSource: WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme55. Blocker: not retrieved by evidence close.
Not boundnoneJMP55
ENE · Energy
Fossil share of electricity
82%Clean sources supplied 18%, hydro 7.4% and wind and solar 0.5%.
Reported2024Ember8
FOO · Food
Paddy production, officially estimated
59million tAbout 9% above the five-year average.
Reported2025FAO10
HLT · Health
Stunting among children under five
22.0%Down from 30% in 2018.
Reported2023World Bank6
BIO · Biodiversity
Land in protected areas
12.0%Forest covered 50.7% of land in 2024; the global target is 30% protected by 2030.
Reported2025World Bank5
SYS · Cross-system
Gap to a 1.5 °C pathway, 2035
141%The gap was 112% for 2030.
Reported2026CAT9
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Supply, loss and flood indicators not bound; withdrawals 11.0% of internal resources in the 2022 series. | WAT → HLT · WAT ↔ ENE | Not bound EQL 1 |
| ENE | Fossil fuels 82% of electricity in 2024; net energy exporter. | ENE → all | Reported EQL 4 |
| FOO | Paddy 59 million tonnes in 2025; wheat imports near a record. | FOO ← TRD, ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| HLT | Stunting 22.0% in 2023; young population; surveillance series not bound. | HLT ← CLI, WAT | Reported EQL 4 |
| BIO | Forest 50.7% of land; protected land 12.0%; deforestation records not bound. | BIO ↔ WAT, FOO | Reported EQL 3 |
| CLI | Critically insufficient effort; emissions rising; floods in Sumatra. | forcing on all systems | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | Island networks; condition not bound at public-safe resolution. | INF → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
| FIN | IMF projects 5.0% growth in 2026; protection gap not bound. | FIN ← CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| DAT | Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution. | DAT → ENE, FIN | Expert input EQL 2 |
| AIC | Data-centre and industrial load growth not quantified. | AIC → ENE, WAT | Expert input EQL 2 |
| MIN | Mineral and coal export dependence not bound. | MIN ← TRD | Expert input EQL 2 |
| TRD | An energy exporter that imports wheat and depends on sea lanes between islands. | TRD → all | Expert input EQL 2 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | compound flood, landslide and supply stress | floods across rice-growing islands | THIN |
| GS-01 | Water | indicators not bound2455 | floods; drought; supply | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | 82% fossil electricity, 20248 | supply disruption; price shocks | PARTIAL |
| GS-03 | Food | 11.5 million t wheat imports10 | import and harvest shocks | PARTIAL |
| GS-04 | Health | stunting 22.0%6 | service demand; disaster access | PARTIAL |
| GS-05 | Finance | IMF growth 5.0%7 | catastrophe fiscal cost | THIN |
| GS-06 | Development | poverty 8.5% in 20253 | service withdrawal | PARTIAL |
| GS-07 | Climate | effort critically insufficient9 | rain, heat and fire | PARTIAL |
| GS-08 | Disaster | loss records not bound16 | floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | condition not bound | maintenance backlog | THIN |
| GS-10 | Cities | subsidence in the capital region51 | urban flooding | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | protected land 12.0%5 | land-use and fire pressure | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | national weather service data not read18 | continuity | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | dependencies not yet mapped | systemic outages | THIN |
| GS-14 | Policy | disaster management law15 | coordination across levels | PARTIAL |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed haze and carbon work5253 | translation to regions | THIN |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/back
- 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDNback
- 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=jsonback
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=jsonback
- 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/back
- 24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDNback
- 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=jsonback
- 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/back
- 51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011.back
- 18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound.back
- 15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read.back
- 52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
- 53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015.back