Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a drought year across several member states hit food, water, health and incomes at once?

    INI-AU-CLI-01 · compound drought stress; first output: dependency graph for two regions.

  2. A-02

    How fast can electricity and clean cooking reach people, and what limits the pace?

    INI-AU-ENE-02 · access pace; first output: access pace table by region.

  3. A-03

    How exposed are food systems to price and input shocks?

    INI-AU-FOO-03 · food price exposure; first output: input and import dependence table.

  4. A-04

    How much outbreak response and care capacity exists, and how fast does it move across borders?

    INI-AU-HLT-04 · outbreak response; first output: response capability register.

  5. A-05

    Who carries disaster losses, and how large is the protection gap?

    INI-AU-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: loss and cover table by hazard.

  6. A-06

    How do shared river basins and lakes perform under drought and flood?

    INI-AU-WAT-01 · workstream; first output: basin performance note.

  7. A-07

    How resilient are mineral and digital supply chains to concentrated demand?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?

    AU capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-AU-CLI-01Compound drought, price and outbreak stressInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-AU-ENE-02Pace of electricity and clean cooking accessInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-AU-FOO-03Food price and input exposureInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-AU-HLT-04Outbreak response across bordersInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-AU-FIN-05Disaster protection gapInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-AU-CLI-01aTwo-region compound stress graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-AU-2027-01Compound drought year Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

African Union is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the African Union from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    One National Agenda

    bounded national questions for the year

    DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment

  2. 02

    National Desk

    coordination, records, routing and continuity

    DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027

  3. 03

    National Model

    the country as a system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut

  4. 04

    National Portfolio

    risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions

    7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment

  5. 05

    Foundry

    continuous computational environment

    PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-AU-2027-Q1

  6. 06

    Reports

    quarterly and annual publication

    BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda

  7. 07

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    after-action, correction and renewal

    OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNEDQ4 2027 annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-AU-2027-01 · Compound drought year Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
DEV-001 · populationpublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
ENE-002 · electricityINI-AU-ENE-02access pace tablePUBLIC
FOO-005 · undernourishmentINI-AU-FOO-03input exposurePUBLIC
WAT-007 · water servicesINI-AU-CLI-01two-region graphPUBLIC
HLT-008 · healthINI-AU-HLT-04outbreak response registerPUBLIC
BIO-010 · protectionINI-AU-CLI-01two-region graphPUBLIC
FIN-009 · economyINI-AU-FIN-05 · key F reviewprotection gapPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-AU-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the national pathwayconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Climate monitoringWMO · regional climate centresannual reportCLI findings
Outbreak communiquésAfrica CDCas issuedHLT-008
Population and economyWorld BankannualDEV findings
Access to electricity and clean cookingWorld BankannualENE-002
UndernourishmentWorld Bank carrying FAO seriesannualFOO-005
Water and sanitationWorld Bank carrying WHO and UNICEF seriesannualWAT-007
Protected areas and forestWorld BankannualBIO-010

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-AU-001Warmest decade on record for Africa2CORROBORATEDCLI · FOOrisk object RSK-AU-CLI-001
SIG-AU-002Undernourishment rose each year from 2018 to 202416CORROBORATEDFOO · HLTinitiative A-03
SIG-AU-003Mpox continental emergency lifted in 20263CORROBORATEDHLTinitiative A-04

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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