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Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table18 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. InferredEQL 3RSK-AU-CLI-001

    Drought across several member states in one season

    Driver
    failed rains and heat in several regions at once
    Exposure
    farming households and rain-fed systems; 49.8% of employment15
    Vulnerability
    undernourishment 22.3%16
    Capacity
    AU climate strategy30; early warning not assessed here
    Cascade
    CLI → FOO, WAT, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal

  2. ReportedEQL 3RSK-AU-ENE-002

    Household and clinic power and cooking gaps persist

    Driver
    slow pace of access gains
    Exposure
    households without electricity or clean cooking
    Vulnerability
    55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking1718
    Capacity
    Mission 300 declaration36
    Cascade
    ENE → HLT, WAT, FOO
    Horizon
    1 to 5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-AU-HLT-003

    Outbreaks cross borders faster than response

    Driver
    cholera, mpox and other pathogens
    Exposure
    dense settlements and mobile populations
    Vulnerability
    safely managed water 32.4%; sanitation 25.9%2223
    Capacity
    Africa CDC communiqués in operation3
    Cascade
    WAT → HLT → FOO, FIN
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-AU-FIN-004

    Uninsured disaster losses reach public budgets

    Driver
    floods, drought, storms and cyclones
    Exposure
    households and public infrastructure
    Vulnerability
    loss and insured-share data not read in this edition
    Capacity
    national schemes; not assessed
    Cascade
    CLI → FIN → public budgets
    Horizon
    annual

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationEXISTSAU climate strategy 2022 to 203230
Monitoring and observationDEMONSTRATEDannual WMO State of the Climate in Africa2
Early warningLISTEDcontinental early warning not assessed in this edition
Preparedness and planningEXISTSAU Sendai programme31; Sendai Framework44
Redundancy and reservesLISTEDnot assessed in this edition
ResponseDEMONSTRATEDAfrica CDC outbreak communiqués, including the mpox emergency lifted in 20263
Continuity of critical servicesLISTEDasset condition not mapped at public-safe resolution
RecoveryLISTEDrecovery funding routes not assessed in this edition
AdaptationEXISTSAU climate strategy and Nairobi Declaration3041
Social protectionLISTEDnot assessed in this edition
Finance and insuranceLISTEDloss and cover data not read in this edition
Institutional coordinationEXISTSConstitutive Act and Agenda 20632829
Technical infrastructureEXISTSPIDA programme35; condition not assessed
WorkforceLISTEDnot assessed in this edition
Research capacityADEQUATEIPCC and IPBES assessments for Africa3839
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
  4. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
  7. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
  12. 44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
  13. 41Africa Climate Summit (ed.), Nairobi Declaration. Africa Climate Summit, Nairobi, September 2023.back
  14. 28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
  15. 29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000.back
  16. 35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
  17. 38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
  18. 39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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