Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

The African Union enters 2027 with a growing and young population, an economy that grew 4.1% in 2025 on the World Bank Sub-Saharan Africa measure, and large gaps in the services that tie water, energy, food and health together4136. In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, 22.9% had clean cooking, 32.4% had safely managed drinking water and 25.9% had safely managed sanitation17182223. The prevalence of undernourishment was 22.3% in 2024, and agriculture employed 49.8% of workers1615. WMO reported that 2024 was one of the warmest years on record for Africa and that the continent had its warmest decade on record2. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union’s five core systems, maps the couplings through which heat, drought, price and disease shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. The data read at close cover Sub-Saharan Africa only, so every figure is labelled with that scope and the AU-wide totals are shown as empty states. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the African Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. A young and growing population: 40.4% under 15 and growth of 2.4% a year in Sub-Saharan Africa.56

    Who lives in the Union?Reported

  2. 55.1% of people had electricity in 2024, and 22.9% had clean cooking.1718

    How far has electricity reached?Reported

  3. 22.3% were undernourished in 2024, and half of workers farm.1516

    How food secure are people?Reported

  4. 32.4% used safely managed drinking water and 25.9% safely managed sanitation.2223

    How safe are water services?Reported

  5. Under-5 mortality fell to 71.2 per 1,000, and life expectancy was 62.8 years.910

    How is health changing?Reported

  6. WMO reports 2024 as one of the warmest years and the warmest decade for Africa.2

    What does the climate record show?Reported

  7. 17.3% of land and 7.1% of territorial waters in 2025.2526

    How much nature is protected?Reported

  8. A drought year across several member states, met by high food prices and a disease outbreak. SCN-AU-CLI-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002

In 2024, 55.1% of people in Sub-Saharan Africa had electricity, up from 46.4% in 2018, and the recent pace of about 1.5 points a year is about one fifth of the pace that universal access by 2030 would need.

Figure S.1People with electricity, Sub-Saharan Africa (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
201846.4
202048.5
202251.5
202455.1

Source: World Bank indicator EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS17.

A household without power also lacks reliable cooling, refrigeration, pumping and clinic equipment, so the gap shows up in water, food and health outcomes. Clean cooking is lower still, at 22.9%18. The universal-access target in the 2030 Agenda sets the benchmark51; the 2025 Mission 300 declaration names the same aim for the continent36.

S.4At a glance

1.32billion

people, Sub-Saharan Africa, 20254

40.4%

aged under 15, 20256

3.2%

aged 65 or over, 20257

44.7%

urban population, 20258

2.21USD trillion

GDP, current prices, 202511

55member states

in the Union at evidence close1

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: services are thin, farming employs half of workers and the climate record is warming.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a dry tap or a dark clinic.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Disaster loss and insured-share data were not read, so the protection gap is not sized.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The Union has strong frameworks and thinner evidence on whether water, health care and power keep running through simultaneous multi-country events.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of the African Union’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  13. 10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  15. 26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
  17. 36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
  18. 7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  19. 8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  20. 11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  21. 1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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