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Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

People using safely managed drinking water

32.4%

Safely managed sanitation reached 25.9%.

Reported2024World Bank22

ENE · Energy

People with access to electricity

55.1%

Clean cooking reached 22.9%.

Reported2024World Bank17

FOO · Food

Prevalence of undernourishment

22.3%

The share was 19.3% in 2018.

Reported2024World Bank16

HLT · Health

Under-5 mortality, per 1,000 live births

71.2per 1,000

It was 79.0 in 2018.

Reported2024World Bank10

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in terrestrial protected areas

17.3%

Marine protection was 7.1% of territorial waters.

Reported2025World Bank25

SYS · Cross-system

Employment in agriculture

49.8%

Agriculture was 18.0% of GDP.

Reported2024World Bank15

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WAT32.4% safely managed drinking water; 25.9% safely managed sanitation (2024).WAT → HLT · WAT → FOOReported EQL 4
ENE55.1% with electricity; 22.9% with clean cooking (2024).ENE → allReported EQL 4
FOO22.3% undernourished; 49.8% of employment in agriculture.FOO ← CLI, WAT, ENEReported EQL 4
HLTUnder-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000; life expectancy 62.8 years (2024).HLT ← WAT, ENE, CLIReported EQL 4
BIOProtected land 17.3% and sea 7.1% (2025); forest 25.7% of land (2023).BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 4
CLIOne of the warmest years on record for Africa in 2024; warmest decade.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 4
INFInfrastructure programme is set out in PIDA; asset condition is not assessed here.INF → allReported EQL 2
FINGDP USD 2.21 trillion in 2025; disaster losses and insured share not shown.FIN ← CLIReported EQL 3
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines are not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre power and water demand is not shown.AIC → ENE, WATExpert input EQL 2
MINMineral supply chains are not shown in this edition.MIN ← TRDExpert input EQL 2
TRDThe African Continental Free Trade Area agreement is in force; trade volumes are not shown.TRD → allReported EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, price and outbreak stressdrought met by high prices and diseaseTHIN
GS-01Watersafely managed water 32.4%22drought; floodPARTIAL
GS-02Energyelectricity 55.1%; clean cooking 22.9%1718supply shortfall; fuel pricePARTIAL
GS-03Foodundernourishment 22.3%16price and input shocksPARTIAL
GS-04Healthunder-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,00010outbreak and heat loadPARTIAL
GS-05FinanceGDP USD 2.21 trillion11; losses not showncatastrophe fiscal costTHIN
GS-06Development1.32 billion people; 40.4% under 1546service strain in fast-growing areasGOOD
GS-07Climatewarmest decade on record2heat; drought; floodPARTIAL
GS-08DisasterAU Sendai programme in place31simultaneous events in several statesTHIN
GS-09InfrastructurePIDA programme35; asset condition not mappedcross-border grid and transport linksTHIN
GS-10Citiesurban share 44.7%8; city-scale exposure not mappedheat; floodingTHIN
GS-11Biodiversityprotected land 17.3%; forest 25.7%2527land use; firePARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationannual WMO regional reports2continuityPARTIAL
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14PolicyAgenda 2063 and climate strategy2830coordination across 55 statesPARTIAL
GS-15ScienceIPCC and IPBES assessments for Africa3839translation to national scalePARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  9. 4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
  13. 35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
  14. 8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  15. 27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
  17. 30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
  18. 38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
  19. 39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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