Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables49 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union’s risk: services are thin, farming employs half of workers and the climate record is warming. Evidence is strongest for population, access and mortality series and weakest for losses, capacity and AU-wide totals.

DEV-001 · ENE-002 · FOO-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a dry tap or a dark clinic. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a young population and growing cities change who needs which service first.

WAT-007 · HLT-008 · FOO-006

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Disaster loss and insured-share data were not read, so the protection gap is not sized. This shows where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.

FIN-009 · CLI-011

NEXUS

Synthesis

The Union has strong frameworks and thinner evidence on whether water, health care and power keep running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound year and measure access, price and outbreak exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the African Union. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
African Union	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Rain, rivers, markets and pathogens do not stop at a border. The baseline treats the Union as one coupled system whose 55 states carry unequal exposure, not as 55 separate ones.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

The risk is shared

With 55.1% of people on electricity and 32.4% on safely managed water, a shock lands on households with little buffer. Access to basic services is a risk measure as much as a development one.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Services are the first defence

Half of workers farm, and one in five people is undernourished. A bad season is therefore an income shock, a price shock and a health shock together.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Farming carries the economy

Many of the figures a risk reader needs, such as AU-wide totals, losses and capacity, were not available to this edition. The programme for 2027 starts by closing those gaps, not by estimating them.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Evidence is the gap

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Constitutive Act of the African Union²⁹	African Union	continental	IN FORCE	institutional basis
Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want²⁸	African Union Commission	continental	ADOPTED 2015	development framework
Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan 2022 to 2032³⁰	African Union Commission	continental	ADOPTED	adaptation and mitigation
Programme of Action for the Sendai Framework in Africa³¹⁴⁴	African Union Commission · UNDRR	continental	ADOPTED	disaster risk reduction
Agreement establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area³²	African Union	continental	IN FORCE 2019	trade
Malabo Declaration³³ and Kampala CAADP Declaration³⁴	African Union	continental	ADOPTED 2014 · 2025	agriculture and food systems
PIDA Priority Action Plan³⁵	African Union · AUDA-NEPAD	continental	PUBLISHED	infrastructure
Mission 300 declaration³⁶	Dar es Salaam energy summit	continental	Declared	electrification
Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda⁵¹	United Nations	international	ADOPTED 2015	SDG targets
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁵	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Paris Agreement⁴⁶	UNFCCC	international	IN FORCE	emissions and adaptation

Changed since 2024

The Kampala CAADP declaration was adopted in January 2025³⁴
The Mission 300 energy summit declaration was made in 2025³⁶
Africa CDC announced the lifting of the mpox continental emergency in a communiqué dated 22 January 2026³

To watch in 2027

Delivery reporting on the Kampala CAADP declaration³⁴
Progress on Mission 300 electrification³⁶
Next reporting round on the Sendai Framework in Africa³¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the African Union’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)⁴³	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁷	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁸	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Trisos et al.³⁸	assessment chapter	2022	supports	climate impacts in Africa
IPBES regional assessment for Africa³⁹	assessment	2018	supports	biodiversity and nature
Foundational Edition⁴⁹	edition	2026	framework	series model

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Climate in Africa 2024²	WMO	2025	supports	climate record
Global Assessment Report 2022⁴⁰	UNDRR	2022	context	disaster risk
Africa Energy Outlook 2022³⁷	IEA	2022	context	energy access
Agenda 2063²⁸	African Union Commission	2015	context	continental framework
Climate strategy 2022 to 2032³⁰	African Union Commission	2022	context	adaptation

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population series⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸	World Bank	2025	supports	profile
Access series¹⁷¹⁸²²²³	World Bank	2024	supports	services
Food and farming series¹⁴¹⁵¹⁶	World Bank	2024 to 2025	supports	food
Health series⁹¹⁰	World Bank	2024	supports	health
Protected areas and forest²⁵²⁶²⁷	World Bank	2023 to 2025	supports	biodiversity

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Economic series¹¹¹²¹³	World Bank	2025	supports	economy
Emissions and renewables¹⁹²⁰²¹	World Bank	2020 to 2024	supports	energy and climate
Population database⁴²	UN DESA	2024	context	AU-wide totals to be bound
Mpox communiqué³	Africa CDC	2026	context	health response
Nexus global baseline⁵⁰	GCRI	2026	context	series peers

Where the evidence agrees

Africa is warming and the last decade was the warmest on record²³⁸
Basic service gaps raise the cost of shocks¹⁷²²
Farming is central to livelihoods¹⁴¹⁵

Where it is unsettled

How Sub-Saharan Africa series compare with AU-wide totals¹⁴
How fast access to electricity and clean cooking can rise¹⁷¹⁸
How much of the undernourishment trend is climate, price or conflict driven¹⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

29African Union (ed.), Constitutive Act of the African Union. African Union, Lome, 2000.back
28African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want, framework document. African Union, Addis Ababa, 2015.back
30African Union Commission (ed.), African Union Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan (2022 to 2032). African Union, Addis Ababa, 2022.back
31African Union Commission (ed.), Programme of Action for the Implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 in Africa. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
44UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.back
32African Union (ed.), Agreement Establishing the African Continental Free Trade Area. African Union, Kigali, 2018.back
33African Union (ed.), Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. African Union, Malabo, 2014.back
34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025.back
35African Union Commission and AUDA-NEPAD (eds.), Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) Priority Action Plan 2021 to 2030. African Union, Addis Ababa.back
36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
51United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, resolution A/RES/70/1. United Nations, New York, 2015.back
45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
46UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.back
3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
43H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
47P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
48J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018.back
38C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., “Africa,” in H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 9. Cambridge University Press, 2022.back
39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back
49S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
2World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 12 May 2025, summary page retrieved 2026-11-03.back
40UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2022: Our World at Risk. UNDRR, Geneva, 2022.back
37International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022, World Energy Outlook special report. IEA, Paris, 2022.back
4World Bank (ed.), “Population, total, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), “Population growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.GROW. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
6World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 0-14 (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), “Urban population (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), “GDP (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), “GDP per capita (current US$), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.PCAP.CD. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), “GDP growth (annual %), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
21World Bank (ed.), “Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions excluding LULUCF per capita, Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EN.GHG.CO2.PC.CE.AR5. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
42United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. United Nations, New York, 2024.back
50S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
1African Union Commission (ed.), Member States of the African Union. African Union, Addis Ababa, page states 55 member states, retrieved 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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