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Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The Union’s risk is shared across borders and carried by services that do not yet reach everyone
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Compound drought, price and outbreak year
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the baseline system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the baseline system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Safe water and sanitation reach a minority of people, and the average withdrawal rate hides basin-level stress that this edition cannot yet show.

32.4%

safely managed drinking water, 202422

25.9%

safely managed sanitation, 202423

3.4%

of internal resources withdrawn, 202224

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Drinking water32.4% used safely managed services in 202422Reported
Sanitation25.9% used safely managed services in 202423Reported
Withdrawals3.4% of internal resources in 2022, a group average24Reported
Drought extentnot shown: FAO and national drought data; no dated release readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
  • CLI → WAT drought and heat
  • WAT → FOO irrigation and livestock
  • WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • drought extent
  • basin-level shared-water use

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Electricity reached 55.1% of people in 2024 and clean cooking 22.9%. The pace of gain is well below what universal access by 2030 would need.

55.1%

with electricity, 202417

22.9%

with clean cooking, 202418

32.6%

renewable share of electricity output, 202119

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Electricity access55.1% in 2024, up from 46.4% in 201817Reported
Clean cooking22.9% in 2024, up from 17.5% in 201818Reported
Renewables32.6% of electricity output in 2021 and 70.3% of final energy in 20201920Reported
Power capacitynot shown: IRENA capacity statistics; publication page not accessiblen/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • ENE → HLT clinic power and household fuel
  • ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
  • ENE → FOO cold chain and farm energy
  • CLI → ENE hydropower and peak demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • power capacity by technology
  • data-centre electricity demand

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Undernourishment has risen since 2018, and half of workers farm. Dependence on imported food and fertiliser matters, but this edition cannot yet show it with sourced numbers.

22.3%

undernourished, 202416

49.8%

of employment in agriculture, 202415

18.0%

of GDP from agriculture, 202514

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Undernourishment22.3% in 2024, up from 19.3% in 201816Reported
Livelihoods49.8% of employment in agriculture in 202415Reported
Outputagriculture was 18.0% of GDP in 202514Reported
Importsnot shown: food and fertiliser import shares; FAO and trade data, no figure readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → FOO heat and drought
  • ENE → FOO fuel, fertiliser and cold chain
  • WAT → FOO irrigation
  • TRD → FOO imports of food and inputs

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • food and fertiliser import shares
  • yield loss in drought years

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Child survival and life expectancy are improving. Water, sanitation and power gaps leave health systems exposed to outbreaks and heat.

71.2per 1,000

under-5 mortality, 202410

62.8years

life expectancy, 20249

3.2%

aged 65 or over, 20257

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Child survivalunder-5 mortality 71.2 per 1,000 in 2024, from 79.0 in 201810Reported
Life expectancy62.8 years in 2024, from 60.8 in 20189Reported
ResponseAfrica CDC announced the lifting of the mpox continental emergency in 20263Reported
Outbreaksnot shown: cholera and mpox counts; Africa CDC and WHO, no figures readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → HLT water and sanitation
  • ENE → HLT clinic power
  • CLI → HLT heat and disease range
  • FOO → HLT undernutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • outbreak counts
  • care surge capacity

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protection is growing but forest cover is falling, and nature underpins water, food and health across the Union.

17.3%

of land protected, 202525

7.1%

of territorial waters protected, 202526

25.7%

of land forested, 202327

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Protectionland 17.3% and territorial waters 7.1% in 20252526Reported
Forest25.7% of land in 2023, from 27.1% in 201527Reported
FrameworkKunming-Montreal Framework sets 30 by 30 aims45Reported
Conditionnot shown: habitat and species condition; no current figure readn/aNOT SOURCED

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT watershed regulation
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • CLI → BIO heat, drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • habitat condition
  • strictly protected share

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 22World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed drinking water services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  2. 23World Bank (ed.), “People using safely managed sanitation services (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS, series compiled by the WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  3. 24World Bank (ed.), “Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal resources), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2022, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  4. 17World Bank (ed.), “Access to electricity (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, data updated 8 October 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  5. 18World Bank (ed.), “Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19World Bank (ed.), “Renewable electricity output (% of total electricity output), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2021, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  7. 20World Bank (ed.), “Renewable energy consumption (% of total final energy consumption), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2020, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  8. 36Heads of State and Government (eds.), Mission 300 Africa Energy Summit declaration. Dar es Salaam, January 2025.back
  9. 16World Bank (ed.), “Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS, series compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  10. 15World Bank (ed.), “Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modelled ILO estimate), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14World Bank (ed.), “Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, value added (% of GDP), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  12. 34African Union (ed.), Kampala CAADP Declaration, Extraordinary Summit on the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. African Union, Kampala, January 2025.back
  13. 10World Bank (ed.), “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SH.DYN.MORT, series compiled by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  14. 9World Bank (ed.), “Life expectancy at birth, total (years), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.DYN.LE00.IN. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  15. 7World Bank (ed.), “Population ages 65 and above (% of total population), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  16. 3Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (ed.), Mpox updates, including the communiqué dated 22 January 2026 on lifting the Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (title read; full text not read). Africa CDC, Addis Ababa, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  17. 25World Bank (ed.), “Terrestrial protected areas (% of total land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.LND.PTLD.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  18. 26World Bank (ed.), “Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, observation 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  19. 27World Bank (ed.), “Forest area (% of land area), Sub-Saharan Africa,” World Development Indicators, AG.LND.FRST.ZS. World Bank, Washington DC, latest observation 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.back
  20. 45Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
  21. 39E. Archer, L. Dziba, K. J. Mulongoy et al. (eds.), The Regional Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services for Africa. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2018.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In African Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the African Union’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-AU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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