References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
2IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
4IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
5IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
6IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
7Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
8UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian blackout: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
11UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb/d and demand 102.5 mb/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
12UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency’s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
13UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
16UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
17UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2
18UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
19UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
20UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
22UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
23UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
24UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
25UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
26UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019/942 and (EU) 2019/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Global Energy Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Global Sector Series GS-02
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright: © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 energy edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
GS-02	NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-SEC-GS-02-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
GS-02 edition Reports Global Energy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-02 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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