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Saudi Arabia 2026

المملكة العربية السعودية

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.

Read the editionالتعرّض إلى المخاطر الطبيعية
النتائج
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
4 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
المصادر
45
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Saudi Arabia in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 35.3millionpopulation, 2024 [1]
  • 63%of residents under 30, as stated in the national submission [2]
  • 709Mt CO₂eemissions incl. land use, 2021 [3]
  • 63%gas share of electricity, 2024 [3]
  • ≈70%of potable water desalinated, per the national submission [2]
  • >80%of land is desert, per the national submission [2]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATالمياه2 findings

    62% Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply, 2023. مُبلَّغ عنه

    Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.

  2. ENEالطاقة2 findings

    63% Gas share of electricity generation, 2024. مُبلَّغ عنه

    Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.

  3. INFالبنية التحتيةnot assessed

    Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.

  4. FOOالغذاء1 finding

    15 million t Cereal import requirement, forecast, 2026/27. مُبلَّغ عنه

    Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.

  5. HLTالصحة1 finding

    1,301 people Deaths reported during the Hajj, 2024. مُبلَّغ عنه

    1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.

  6. BIOالتنوع البيولوجي0 findings

    18.1% Land in protected areas, 2024. مُبلَّغ عنه

    Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.5% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-SAU-CLI-001

    Extreme heat and humidity

    مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 4

    المحرك
    warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
    التعرّض
    outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
    قابلية التأثر
    dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
    القدرة
    midday work rule; health-service planning
    التسلسل المتتالي
    CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
    الأفق
    seasonal

    الغلاف الجوي والطقس

  • RSK-SAU-WAT-002

    Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

    مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3

    المحرك
    fossil aquifer use; rising demand
    التعرّض
    cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
    قابلية التأثر
    a few large plants; limited storage
    القدرة
    Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]
    التسلسل المتتالي
    WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
    الأفق
    5–30 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-SAU-CLI-003

    Flash flood and dust storm

    مُبلَّغ عنهEQL 3

    المحرك
    intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
    التعرّض
    Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
    قابلية التأثر
    drainage built for rare rain
    القدرة
    weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]
    التسلسل المتتالي
    CLI → INF → HLT
    الأفق
    سنوي

    نظم المياهالغلاف الجوي والطقس

  • RSK-SAU-ENE-004

    Fuel and power supply under peak demand

    Expert inputEQL 2

    المحرك
    summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
    التعرّض
    power, desalination, industry
    قابلية التأثر
    gas and oil 98% of generation
    القدرة
    12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]
    التسلسل المتتالي
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    الأفق
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-SAU-HTW-01

Summer heat peak with a mass gathering

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → HLTheat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
  2. 2CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
  3. 3ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
  4. 4WAT → HLTwater for cooling and drinking is stretched
  5. 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity is stretched
  6. 6FINcosts fall on the public budget

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core النظم. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
منWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongمعتدلةStrong
ENEمعتدلة·StrongStrongمعتدلة
FOOمعتدلةWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakمعتدلة·Weak
BIOStrongمعتدلةStrongمعتدلة·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the powerInferred
  2. CLI → HLTheat loads health services and mass gatheringsمُبلَّغ عنه
  3. CLI → INFa single rain event closes roads and schools in a cityمُبلَّغ عنه
  4. WAT → FOOfossil groundwater supports irrigated farmingمُبلَّغ عنه
  5. TRD → FINoil export revenue carries the national budgetمُبلَّغ عنه

05 · Findings

Every finding of Saudi Arabia.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Saudi Arabia
IDالطبعةSector or systemالحالةStatement
CLI-001المملكة العربية السعوديةCLI Climate forcing مُبلَّغ عنهGreenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.
CLI-002المملكة العربية السعوديةCLI Climate forcing مُبلَّغ عنهThe second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060.
ENE-003المملكة العربية السعوديةENE الطاقة مُبلَّغ عنهGas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.
ENE-004المملكة العربية السعوديةENE الطاقة مُبلَّغ عنهRenewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction.
WAT-005المملكة العربية السعوديةWAT المياه مُبلَّغ عنهNon-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater.
WAT-006المملكة العربية السعوديةWAT المياه مُبلَّغ عنهThe national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ.
CLI-007المملكة العربية السعوديةCLI Climate forcing مُبلَّغ عنهTemperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits.
CLI-008المملكة العربية السعوديةCLI Climate forcing مُبلَّغ عنهJeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools.
HLT-009المملكة العربية السعوديةHLT الصحة مُبلَّغ عنهThe Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025.
FOO-010المملكة العربية السعوديةFOO الغذاء مُبلَّغ عنهFAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes.
FIN-011المملكة العربية السعوديةFIN المالية مُبلَّغ عنهOil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025.
SYS-012المملكة العربية السعوديةSYS النظمي Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia.

The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia
المكتبالطبعةالحالةالمعرّف
GCRI Systems EvidenceSaudi Arabia 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Saudi Arabia 2026قيد الإعداد
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Saudi Arabia 2026قيد الإعداد
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Saudi Arabia 2026قيد الإعداد

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03إغلاق الأدلة30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07التصحيحاتafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

سجل التصحيحات

Versions and corrections
الإصدارالتاريخالحالةالتغيرإشعار
NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,لا شيء
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
الفجوةShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sau/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
التقاريرساهم

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