Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Saudi Arabia 2026
沙特阿拉伯
Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.
- 发现
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- 来源
- 45
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Saudi Arabia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WAT水2 findings
62% Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply, 2023. □报告值
Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.
- ENE能源2 findings
63% Gas share of electricity generation, 2024. □报告值
Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.
- INF基础设施not assessed
Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.
- FOO食品1 finding
15 million t Cereal import requirement, forecast, 2026/27. □报告值
Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.
- HLT卫生1 finding
1,301 people Deaths reported during the Hajj, 2024. □报告值
1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.
- BIO生物多样性0 findings
18.1% Land in protected areas, 2024. □报告值
Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.5% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-SAU-CLI-001
Extreme heat and humidity
□报告值EQL 4
- 驱动因素
- warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
- 风险暴露
- outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
- 脆弱性
- dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
- 能力
- midday work rule; health-service planning
- 级联
- CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
- 地平线
- seasonal
RSK-SAU-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- fossil aquifer use; rising demand
- 风险暴露
- cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
- 脆弱性
- a few large plants; limited storage
- 能力
- Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]
- 级联
- WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
- 地平线
- 5–30 years
No domain reading
RSK-SAU-CLI-003
Flash flood and dust storm
□报告值EQL 3
- 驱动因素
- intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
- 风险暴露
- Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
- 脆弱性
- drainage built for rare rain
- 能力
- weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]
- 级联
- CLI → INF → HLT
- 地平线
- 年度
RSK-SAU-ENE-004
Fuel and power supply under peak demand
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- 驱动因素
- summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
- 风险暴露
- power, desalination, industry
- 脆弱性
- gas and oil 98% of generation
- 能力
- 12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]
- 级联
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
- 地平线
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-SAU-HTW-01
Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → HLTheat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
- 2CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
- 3ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
- 4WAT → HLTwater for cooling and drinking is stretched
- 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity is stretched
- 6FINcosts fall on the public budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core 系统. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| 从 | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 | Strong |
| ENE | 中等 | · | Strong | Strong | 中等 |
| FOO | 中等 | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | 中等 | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | 中等 | Strong | 中等 | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the power▲Inferred
- CLI → HLTheat loads health services and mass gatherings□报告值
- CLI → INFa single rain event closes roads and schools in a city□报告值
- WAT → FOOfossil groundwater supports irrigated farming□报告值
- TRD → FINoil export revenue carries the national budget□报告值
05 · Findings
Every finding of Saudi Arabia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | 版本 | Sector or system | 状态 | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | 沙特阿拉伯 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use. |
| CLI-002 | 沙特阿拉伯 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | The second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060. |
| ENE-003 | 沙特阿拉伯 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024. |
| ENE-004 | 沙特阿拉伯 | ENE 能源 | □ 报告值 | Renewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction. |
| WAT-005 | 沙特阿拉伯 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater. |
| WAT-006 | 沙特阿拉伯 | WAT 水 | □ 报告值 | The national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ. |
| CLI-007 | 沙特阿拉伯 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Temperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits. |
| CLI-008 | 沙特阿拉伯 | CLI Climate forcing | □ 报告值 | Jeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools. |
| HLT-009 | 沙特阿拉伯 | HLT 卫生 | □ 报告值 | The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025. |
| FOO-010 | 沙特阿拉伯 | FOO 食品 | □ 报告值 | FAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes. |
| FIN-011 | 沙特阿拉伯 | FIN 金融 | □ 报告值 | Oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | 沙特阿拉伯 | SYS 系统性 | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia.
| 办事处 | 版本 | 状态 | 标识符 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Saudi Arabia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Saudi Arabia 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Saudi Arabia 2026 | 筹备中 | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Saudi Arabia 2026 | 筹备中 |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03证据截止30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07更正after release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- 阅读The edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- 贡献Send evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- 审核Join the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
更正记录
| 版本 | 日期 | 状态 | 变化 | 通知 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | 无 |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| 差距 | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sau/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Saudi Arabia.
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