Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Saudi Arabia 2026
عەرەبستانی سعودی
Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.
- دۆزینەوەکان
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- سەرچاوەکان
- 45
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Saudi Arabia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATئاو2 findings
62% Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply, 2023. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.
- ENEوزە2 findings
63% Gas share of electricity generation, 2024. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.
- INFژێرخانnot assessed
Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.
- FOOخۆراک1 finding
15 million t Cereal import requirement, forecast, 2026/27. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.
- HLTتەندروستی1 finding
1,301 people Deaths reported during the Hajj, 2024. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.
- BIOفرەجۆریی زیندەوەری0 findings
18.1% Land in protected areas, 2024. □ڕاپۆرتکراو
Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.5% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-SAU-CLI-001
Extreme heat and humidity
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 4
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
- لاوازی
- dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
- توانا
- midday work rule; health-service planning
- زنجیرەیی
- CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
- Horizon
- seasonal
RSK-SAU-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 3
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- fossil aquifer use; rising demand
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
- لاوازی
- a few large plants; limited storage
- توانا
- Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]
- زنجیرەیی
- WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
- Horizon
- 5–30 years
No domain reading
RSK-SAU-CLI-003
Flash flood and dust storm
□ڕاپۆرتکراوEQL 3
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
- لاوازی
- drainage built for rare rain
- توانا
- weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]
- زنجیرەیی
- CLI → INF → HLT
- Horizon
- annual
RSK-SAU-ENE-004
Fuel and power supply under peak demand
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- هێزی بزوێنەر
- summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
- ڕووبەڕووبوون
- power, desalination, industry
- لاوازی
- gas and oil 98% of generation
- توانا
- 12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]
- زنجیرەیی
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
- Horizon
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-SAU-HTW-01
Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → HLTheat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
- 2CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
- 3ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
- 4WAT → HLTwater for cooling and drinking is stretched
- 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity is stretched
- 6FINcosts fall on the public budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core سیستەمە. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| From | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | مامناوەند | Strong |
| ENE | مامناوەند | · | Strong | Strong | مامناوەند |
| FOO | مامناوەند | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | مامناوەند | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | مامناوەند | Strong | مامناوەند | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the power▲Inferred
- CLI → HLTheat loads health services and mass gatherings□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- CLI → INFa single rain event closes roads and schools in a city□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- WAT → FOOfossil groundwater supports irrigated farming□ڕاپۆرتکراو
- TRD → FINoil export revenue carries the national budget□ڕاپۆرتکراو
05 · Findings
Every finding of Saudi Arabia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | وەشان | Sector or system | دۆخ | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use. |
| CLI-002 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060. |
| ENE-003 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | ENE وزە | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024. |
| ENE-004 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | ENE وزە | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Renewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction. |
| WAT-005 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | WAT ئاو | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater. |
| WAT-006 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | WAT ئاو | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ. |
| CLI-007 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Temperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits. |
| CLI-008 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | CLI Climate forcing | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Jeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools. |
| HLT-009 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | HLT تەندروستی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025. |
| FOO-010 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | FOO خۆراک | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | FAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes. |
| FIN-011 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | FIN دارایی | □ ڕاپۆرتکراو | Oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | عەرەبستانی سعودی | SYS Systemic | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia.
| Desk | وەشان | دۆخ | ناسێنەر |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Saudi Arabia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Saudi Arabia 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Saudi Arabia 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Saudi Arabia 2026 | لە ئامادەکردندایە |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Evidence close30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07ڕاستکردنەوەکانafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ReadThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- بەشداربەSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- پێداچوونەوەJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Corrections log
| وەشان | Date | دۆخ | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | هیچ |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| بۆشایی | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sau/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Saudi Arabia.
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