Reports · GCRI · Country profile
Saudi Arabia 2026
Саудовская Аравия
Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.
- Выводы
- 12
- each with its status and source
- Sectors with findings
- 4 of 6
- Infrastructure not assessed
- Risk objects
- 4
- order carries no rank
- Источники
- 45
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
01 · Readings
Saudi Arabia in six readings.
Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
02 · Sectors
Six sectors, one hexagon.
Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.
- WATВода2 findings
62% Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply, 2023. □Сообщённые данные
Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.
- ENEЭнергетика2 findings
63% Gas share of electricity generation, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.
- INFИнфраструктураnot assessed
Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.
- FOOПродовольствие1 finding
15 million t Cereal import requirement, forecast, 2026/27. □Сообщённые данные
Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.
- HLTЗдравоохранение1 finding
1,301 people Deaths reported during the Hajj, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.
- BIOБиоразнообразие0 findings
18.1% Land in protected areas, 2024. □Сообщённые данные
Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.5% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.
Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.
03 · Hazard exposure
The hazards this edition reads.
The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.
RSK-SAU-CLI-001
Extreme heat and humidity
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 4
- Движущая сила
- warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
- Подверженность
- outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
- Уязвимость
- dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
- Мощность
- midday work rule; health-service planning
- Каскад
- CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
- Горизонт
- seasonal
RSK-SAU-WAT-002
Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 3
- Движущая сила
- fossil aquifer use; rising demand
- Подверженность
- cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
- Уязвимость
- a few large plants; limited storage
- Мощность
- Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]
- Каскад
- WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
- Горизонт
- 5–30 years
No domain reading
RSK-SAU-CLI-003
Flash flood and dust storm
□Сообщённые данныеEQL 3
- Движущая сила
- intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
- Подверженность
- Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
- Уязвимость
- drainage built for rare rain
- Мощность
- weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]
- Каскад
- CLI → INF → HLT
- Горизонт
- ежегодно
RSK-SAU-ENE-004
Fuel and power supply under peak demand
◎Expert inputEQL 2
- Движущая сила
- summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
- Подверженность
- power, desalination, industry
- Уязвимость
- gas and oil 98% of generation
- Мощность
- 12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]
- Каскад
- ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
- Горизонт
- 1–5 years
No domain reading
Scenario · SCN-SAU-HTW-01
Summer heat peak with a mass gathering
Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.
3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them
- 1CLI → HLTheat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
- 2CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
- 3ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
- 4WAT → HLTwater for cooling and drinking is stretched
- 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity is stretched
- 6FINcosts fall on the public budget
04 · Couplings
How the sectors carry risk into each other.
The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core системы. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.
| От | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | · | Strong | Strong | Умеренные | Strong |
| ENE | Умеренные | · | Strong | Strong | Умеренные |
| FOO | Умеренные | Weak | · | Strong | Strong |
| HLT | Weak | Weak | Умеренные | · | Weak |
| BIO | Strong | Умеренные | Strong | Умеренные | · |
Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.
Cascade paths, in the edition’s order
- CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the power▲Inferred
- CLI → HLTheat loads health services and mass gatherings□Сообщённые данные
- CLI → INFa single rain event closes roads and schools in a city□Сообщённые данные
- WAT → FOOfossil groundwater supports irrigated farming□Сообщённые данные
- TRD → FINoil export revenue carries the national budget□Сообщённые данные
05 · Findings
Every finding of Saudi Arabia.
Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.
All 12 findings
| ID | Выпуск | Sector or system | Статус | Statement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLI-001 | Саудовская Аравия | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Greenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use. |
| CLI-002 | Саудовская Аравия | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | The second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060. |
| ENE-003 | Саудовская Аравия | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | Gas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024. |
| ENE-004 | Саудовская Аравия | ENE Энергетика | □ Сообщённые данные | Renewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction. |
| WAT-005 | Саудовская Аравия | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | Non-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater. |
| WAT-006 | Саудовская Аравия | WAT Вода | □ Сообщённые данные | The national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ. |
| CLI-007 | Саудовская Аравия | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Temperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits. |
| CLI-008 | Саудовская Аравия | CLI Climate forcing | □ Сообщённые данные | Jeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools. |
| HLT-009 | Саудовская Аравия | HLT Здравоохранение | □ Сообщённые данные | The Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025. |
| FOO-010 | Саудовская Аравия | FOO Продовольствие | □ Сообщённые данные | FAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes. |
| FIN-011 | Саудовская Аравия | FIN Финансы | □ Сообщённые данные | Oil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025. |
| SYS-012 | Саудовская Аравия | SYS Системные риски | ◎ Expert input | The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering. |
06 · Editions and calendar
The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia.
| Бюро | Выпуск | Статус | Идентификатор |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | Saudi Arabia 2026 | Drafted, in stewardship review | NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Public Deliberation: Saudi Arabia 2026 | В подготовке | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Capital Readiness: Saudi Arabia 2026 | В подготовке | |
| Standards Progress | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Measurement: Saudi Arabia 2026 | В подготовке |
Calendar · 2026 Baseline
- 01Call opensset by the editor
- 02Contribution closeset by the editor
- 03Закрытие доказательной базы30 September 2026
- 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
- 05Collection compilationset by the editor
- 06Collection releaseset by the editor
- 07Исправленияafter release, as needed
Evidence cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.
07 · Take part
Read it, improve it, cite it.
- ИзучениеThe edition, chapter by chapter, with every source.
- Внести вкладSend evidence, a source or a method before the next cut.
- РецензированиеJoin the stewardship review of this edition.
- CiteAPA, Chicago, BibTeX, RIS and the house style, as a draft.
- PDFThe signed PDF is issued at release; print the complete edition today.
Журнал исправлений
| Версия | Дата | Статус | Изменение | Уведомление |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | DRAFT | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | нет |
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
| Разрыв | Shown here as | Proposed source |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares) | the edition’s own risk objects, without values | the Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sau/ |
| The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objects | an editorial reading of the hazard words | the NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry |
| Infrastructure in the coupling matrix | Infrastructure marked not assessed | an Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut |
Send evidence or a correction on Saudi Arabia.
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