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Saudi Arabia 2026

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia enters 2027 as a hot, arid, hydrocarbon-exporting economy of 35.3 million people that is building a very large renewable fleet while still burning gas and oil for almost all of its electricity. Its reported emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019, and energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.

Read the editionHazard exposure
Findings
12
each with its status and source
Sectors with findings
4 of 6
Infrastructure not assessed
Risk objects
4
order carries no rank
Sources
45
Evidence close 30 September 2026

01 · Readings

Saudi Arabia in six readings.

Six readings that frame the Saudi Arabia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  • 35.3millionpopulation, 2024 [1]
  • 63%of residents under 30, as stated in the national submission [2]
  • 709Mt CO₂eemissions incl. land use, 2021 [3]
  • 63%gas share of electricity, 2024 [3]
  • ≈70%of potable water desalinated, per the national submission [2]
  • >80%of land is desert, per the national submission [2]

02 · Sectors

Six sectors, one hexagon.

Water first, then Energy, Infrastructure, Food, Health and Biodiversity. Each count is the findings of this edition in that sector: coverage of the evidence, never a score. Infrastructure is not assessed: the edition holds no Infrastructure finding and its coupling matrix does not assess it.

  1. WATWater2 findings

    62% Non-renewable groundwater, share of natural water supply, 2023. Reported

    Non-renewable groundwater 62% of natural supply; desalination supplies the cities; agriculture the largest user.

  2. ENEEnergy2 findings

    63% Gas share of electricity generation, 2024. Reported

    Gas and oil gave 98% of 2024 electricity; 12.3 GW of renewables connected by end 2025.

  3. INFInfrastructurenot assessed

    Desalination, grid and transport networks; condition and redundancy not bound.

  4. FOOFood1 finding

    15 million t Cereal import requirement, forecast, 2026/27. Reported

    Cereal imports forecast at 15 million t for 2026/27; wheat harvest about 1.1 million t.

  5. HLTHealth1 finding

    1,301 people Deaths reported during the Hajj, 2024. Reported

    1,301 deaths reported during the 2024 Hajj; life expectancy 78.8 years in 2024.

  6. BIOBiodiversity0 findings

    18.1% Land in protected areas, 2024. Reported

    Protected land 18.1% and sea 6.5% in 2024; over 80% of land is desert.

Outside the six sectors: Climate forcing 4, Finance 1, Systemic 1.

03 · Hazard exposure

The hazards this edition reads.

The edition’s own risk objects, in its order, each read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and horizon. The hexagon marks the sectors the cascade reaches; the domain beside each is an editorial reading of its hazard words.

  • RSK-SAU-CLI-001

    Extreme heat and humidity

    ReportedEQL 4

    Driver
    warming of about 0.6 °C a decade; hot, humid Gulf coast
    Exposure
    outdoor workers, pilgrims, older residents
    Vulnerability
    dense gatherings; outdoor work; limited shade
    Capacity
    midday work rule; health-service planning
    Cascade
    CLI → HLT, ENE → WAT
    Horizon
    seasonal

    Atmosphere and weather

  • RSK-SAU-WAT-002

    Groundwater depletion and desalination dependence

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    fossil aquifer use; rising demand
    Exposure
    cities supplied by desalination; irrigated farms
    Vulnerability
    a few large plants; limited storage
    Capacity
    Strategic Water Plan 2050; treated-water reuse [2]
    Cascade
    WAT → FOO, HLT, ENE
    Horizon
    5–30 years

    No domain reading

  • RSK-SAU-CLI-003

    Flash flood and dust storm

    ReportedEQL 3

    Driver
    intense rain on sealed urban areas; strong winds
    Exposure
    Jeddah and other cities; roads and airports
    Vulnerability
    drainage built for rare rain
    Capacity
    weather alerts; regional dust-storm warning work [23]
    Cascade
    CLI → INF → HLT
    Horizon
    annual

    Water systemsAtmosphere and weather

  • RSK-SAU-ENE-004

    Fuel and power supply under peak demand

    Expert inputEQL 2

    Driver
    summer peak; fuel or grid disruption
    Exposure
    power, desalination, industry
    Vulnerability
    gas and oil 98% of generation
    Capacity
    12.3 GW of renewables connected [2]
    Cascade
    ENE → WAT, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

    No domain reading

Scenario · SCN-SAU-HTW-01

Summer heat peak with a mass gathering

Under this scenario, results describe a conditional season under stated assumptions. It is not a forecast, and no intervention described here has been carried out.

3 of 12 findings name a hazard in their text. Show them

  1. 1CLI → HLTheat illness rises among pilgrims and outdoor workers
  2. 2CLI → ENEcooling load raises peak power demand
  3. 3ENE → WATdesalination needs power at the same peak
  4. 4WAT → HLTwater for cooling and drinking is stretched
  5. 5HLT → INFcare and transport capacity is stretched
  6. 6FINcosts fall on the public budget

04 · Couplings

How the sectors carry risk into each other.

The Saudi Arabia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Coupling matrix, from row to column
FromWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT·StrongStrongModerateStrong
ENEModerate·StrongStrongModerate
FOOModerateWeak·StrongStrong
HLTWeakWeakModerate·Weak
BIOStrongModerateStrongModerate·

Water: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Energy: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Food: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Health: 4 couplings out, 4 in; Biodiversity: 4 couplings out, 4 in. Infrastructure is not in the coupling matrix: none of the edition matrices types it, so it carries no value.

Cascade paths, in the edition’s order

  1. CLI → ENE → WATa heat peak raises power demand, and desalination needs the powerInferred
  2. CLI → HLTheat loads health services and mass gatheringsReported
  3. CLI → INFa single rain event closes roads and schools in a cityReported
  4. WAT → FOOfossil groundwater supports irrigated farmingReported
  5. TRD → FINoil export revenue carries the national budgetReported

05 · Findings

Every finding of Saudi Arabia.

Search, filter by sector, system or status, and sort. The address bar keeps the view, so a filtered list can be shared. Every row opens the finding at its source.

All 12 findings

Findings of Saudi Arabia
IDEditionSector or systemStatusStatement
CLI-001Saudi ArabiaCLI Climate forcing ReportedGreenhouse-gas emissions were 709 Mt CO₂e in 2021 including land use, 7% above 2019; energy supplied 81% of the total excluding land use.
CLI-002Saudi ArabiaCLI Climate forcing ReportedThe second climate contribution aims to cut 335 Mt CO₂e a year by 2040 against a baseline that is not published, with no 2035 target and net zero in 2060.
ENE-003Saudi ArabiaENE Energy ReportedGas and oil gave 63% and 35% of electricity in 2024 and solar and wind 2%; gas generation rose from 224 TWh in 2019 to 288 TWh in 2024.
ENE-004Saudi ArabiaENE Energy ReportedRenewable capacity connected to the grid was 12.3 GW at the end of 2025, with 57.5 GW tendered and 10.7 GW under construction.
WAT-005Saudi ArabiaWAT Water ReportedNon-renewable groundwater was 62% of the natural water supply in 2023, and agriculture used 12,298 million m³, of which 9,356 million m³ was non-renewable groundwater.
WAT-006Saudi ArabiaWAT Water ReportedThe national submission says around 70% of potable water is desalinated; the GASTAT water accounts give 50% of distributed water for 2023. The two measures differ.
CLI-007Saudi ArabiaCLI Climate forcing ReportedTemperatures rose by 0.60 °C a decade at the daily maximum and 0.64 °C a decade at the minimum between 1978 and 2019, and projections for the region approach human heat limits.
CLI-008Saudi ArabiaCLI Climate forcing ReportedJeddah recorded 179 mm of rain on 24 November 2022, more than the 2009 peak, and flooding closed roads and schools.
HLT-009Saudi ArabiaHLT Health ReportedThe Health Minister reported 1,301 deaths during the 2024 Hajj, 83% of them unauthorised pilgrims; the cause split was not given. A midday outdoor-work rule ran from 15 June to 15 September 2025.
FOO-010Saudi ArabiaFOO Food ReportedFAO forecast cereal import needs of 15 million tonnes for 2026/27, while the 2026 wheat harvest was about 1.1 million tonnes.
FIN-011Saudi ArabiaFIN Finance ReportedOil and oil products were 69% of main products and exports; the IMF projects growth of 1.7% in 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2025.
SYS-012Saudi ArabiaSYS Systemic Expert inputThe leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer heat peak that loads power, desalination and health services together during a mass gathering.
The full ledger, without scripts

06 · Editions and calendar

The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia.

The desks’ editions for Saudi Arabia
DeskEditionStateIdentifier
GCRI Systems EvidenceSaudi Arabia 2026Drafted, in stewardship reviewNR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
GRF Public DeliberationPublic Deliberation: Saudi Arabia 2026In preparation
GRA Capital ReadinessCapital Readiness: Saudi Arabia 2026In preparation
Standards ProgressNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Academy CapabilityNo edition in the 2026 Baseline cycleNot in this cycle
Index MeasurementMeasurement: Saudi Arabia 2026In preparation

Calendar · 2026 Baseline

  1. 01Call opensset by the editor
  2. 02Contribution closeset by the editor
  3. 03Evidence close30 September 2026
  4. 04Desk review and releaseset by the editor
  5. 05Collection compilationset by the editor
  6. 06Collection releaseset by the editor
  7. 07Correctionsafter release, as needed

Evidence cut NQ-SAU-2026-Q0-1. Next cycles: Q1 2027, Q2 2027, Q3 2027, Q4 2027; their dates are set by the editor.

07 · Take part

Read it, improve it, cite it.

Corrections log

Versions and corrections
VersionDateStateChangeNotice
NR-COUNTRY-SAU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DRAFTBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,none
Data gaps3What the repository does not hold yet, and the source proposed for each
Data gaps and proposed sources
GapShown here asProposed source
Exposure values per hazard (people, assets, hectares)the edition’s own risk objects, without valuesthe Index country profile once the Index releases values, risksindex.com/sau/
The NHS-1 hazard types and their assignment to this edition’s risk objectsan editorial reading of the hazard wordsthe NHS-1 type assignment through the Registry
Infrastructure in the coupling matrixInfrastructure marked not assessedan Infrastructure row and column in the edition matrix at the next cut
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