Framing the decision before the model
Decision makers and modellers agree the options, objectives and key uncertainties first, so the model is built to inform an actual choice.
GCRI · Zanista pergalan û modelkirin
Decision analysis for modelling
Decision analysis under uncertainty connects models to choices. In this field it frames what decision a model serves, which outcomes matter, how uncertainty affects the choice and when more modelling would change the decision, so modelling effort goes where it adds value.
01Qeyd
Decision analysis for modelling on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- RêbazAnalîza biryarê di bin nediyarî de
- ParêzvanRêveberiya xetera pergalî
- Applied inPergal û modelkirin
- Dane3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In methods and modelling, risk management and xetera pergalî and research and evidence, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Value of information for models
The expected improvement in a decision from reducing a model uncertainty is estimated before investing in further model development.
Communicating model results for decisions
Results are presented as consequences of options under uncertainty, with ranges and assumptions, rather than single predictions.
03Rêbaz û delîl
How decision analysis for modelling is modelled, measured and tested.
Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.
Model, hevkêşe û texmîn
The model structure used for decision analysis for modelling, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Xetera hêmana i
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)metirsî, rûbirûbûn, lawazî û kapasîteya serederiyêWindahiya salane ya hêvîkirî
EAL = ∑k pk · Lkli ser bûyerên k bi îhtîmala salane pkPergalên girêdayî
xt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Texmîn | Çima tê çêkirin | Çawa tê ceribandin |
|---|---|---|
| Metirsî û rûbirûbûn di nav bûyerekê de serbixwe ne | Entegrala windahiyê ji hesabkirinê re maqûl dihêle | Bi lihevhatineke copula li ser tomarên hevbeş re bidin ber hev |
| Girêdan li nêzî xala xebatê xêzik in | Dihêle şok di A de belav bibin | Ji derveyî rêza xêzik tevlihev bike û bide ber hev |
| Xêzên lawaziyê di navbera cihan de têne veguhastin | Xêzikên herêmî kêm tên dîtin | Li hember windahiyên çavdêrîkirî erê bike li cihê ku hene |
- Têketin
- danehevên bi guhertoyan û çavkaniyê
- Derketin
- belavkirin, tu carî jimarên tenê
- Kod
- bi qerta modelê û ceribandinan re hat weşandin
- Zêdebûn
- heman dane, kod, jîngeh û tov
Prensîbên rêber ên FAIR · GO FAIR û FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumRêwerzên ji bo birêvebirina hevgirtî ya nediyarîyan · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
04Dane
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| Elicited objectives and options | Framing | DECLARED |
| Model outputs | Consequences | MODELKIRÎ |
| Uncertainty estimates | Value of information | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
05Pêvajo
Pêvajo çawa dimeşe.
Process explorer · Process
Decision analysis for modelling: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
10 steps·4 qonax
Pêvajo
Decision analysis for modelling: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01MetirsîDataset · Model stewardThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02RûbirûbûnDataset · Model stewardThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03HesasîDataset · Model stewardThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Model stewardThe ability of pergalan, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Model stewardRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06LawazîComponent · Model stewardThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07XetereModel · Systems Science and ModellingRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Model stewardRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Xetera mayîRecord · Model stewardThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Model stewardThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
06Erêkirin
How results are checked.
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Decision relevance review | Modelling plans are reviewed for relevance to the decision |
| Sensitivity of choice | Analysis tests whether uncertainty changes the preferred option |
| Communication testing | Result presentations are tested with intended users |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
07Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
08Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Rêveberiya xetera pergalî stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
09Girêdayî
Ev rûpel li ser Konsorsiyûmê te ber bi kû ve dibe.
10Pirs
Pirs û bersiv.
What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkTevkarî bike
Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
GCRIZanista pergalan û modelkirinRêbaz û teknîkîSenaryo û ceribandina stresê
- E-nameDergeh GW-GCRIJi vê rûpelê bişîninDelîl, rastkirin, doz, rêbaz, nirxandin, wergerandin an têketina profîlê. Bi nîşana vê rûpelê digihîje, ji ber vê yekê edîtorê xwediyê wê wê bistîne.
- ZenodoDepoya vekirîWê razînin û ji civakê re bişîninTomara xwe li Zenodo bi ORCID iD ya xwe biweşînin, paşê wê li wir ji civaka Reports re bişînin. Kurator wê vedikolin; DOI ya we dimîne.
- rêzeya Pergalên StratejîkGCRIHemû rêyên beşdariyê bibîneCureyên beşdariyê, her yek çawa tê nirxandin, tu çi navlêkirinê distînî, lîsans û tiştê ku qet nayê qebûlkirin.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Zanista pergalan û modelkirin
Rêbazek, danehevek an pirsek bîne.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Hiqûqî
Belgeyên hiqûqî.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.