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GCRI · Rêveberiya xetera pergalî

Decision analysis for risk management

Decision analysis structures choices under uncertainty: it makes the options, objectives, uncertainties and trade-offs explicit so that a decision can be examined and defended. In xetera pergalî management it supports appetite setting, the choice of treatments and the selection of investments in resilience where consequences are uncertain and values conflict.

Pirsek bike Back to STEM foundation of Systemic Risk Management
01Qeyd

Decision analysis for risk management on the record.

Method recordSTEM method
  1. RêbazAnalîza biryarê di bin nediyarî de
  2. Parêzvanxetera pergalî Management
  3. Applied inRêveberiya xetera pergalî
  6. Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application

What decision analysis under uncertainty does here.

Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In risk management and xetera pergalî and methods and modelling, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.

Multi-criteria treatment choice

Options for treating a risk are scored against objectives such as safety, cost, service continuity and equity, with weights elicited from decision makers and the sensitivity of the ranking to those weights reported.

Decision trees for contingent plans

Sequential choices, such as whether to invest now or wait for information, are laid out with their probabilities and consequences, and the value of further information is estimated before commissioning it.

Robust choices across scenarios

Strategies are tested across many plausible futures to find those that perform acceptably in most of them, and the conditions under which each strategy fails are identified.

03Çavdêrî bike

Uncertainty analysis.

The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Uncertainty analysis

Systemic risk · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-0911

Sensitivity rankedGCRI · Rêveberiya xetera pergalî

Total-order sensitivity

Output distribution

Têketin

Risks above appetiteNormalrisks, statedberhevkirina nêrînên pisporan
Key risk indicators in breachNormalKRIs, statedberhevkirina nêrînên pisporan
Controls tested effectiveLognormal of controls, statedberhevkirina nêrînên pisporan
Interdependency links mappedNormallinks, statedberhevkirina nêrînên pisporan
Uncertainty analysis: the screen’s structure, terms and states for Systemic risk.Nav û nirxên nimûneyî; sêwiran e, ne qeyd an pergaleke zindî ye.
04Dane

What the method consumes.

Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.

DaneRolNîşan
Elicited objectives and weights from decision makersValue model inputsDECLARED
Tomara xetereyê assessmentsLikelihood and consequence inputsTEXMÎNKIRÎ
Scenario librariesFutures for robustness testingMODELKIRÎ
Cost and performance records of past treatmentsOption evaluationÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ
05Rêbaz û delîl

How decision analysis for risk management is modelled, measured and tested.

Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.

Model, hevkêşe û texmîn

The model structure used for decision analysis for risk management, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.

Xetera hêmana iRi = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)metirsî, rûbirûbûn, lawazî û kapasîteya serederiyê
Windahiya salane ya hêvîkirîEAL = ∑k pk · Lkli ser bûyerên k bi îhtîmala salane pk
Pergalên girêdayîxt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error
TexmînÇima tê çêkirinÇawa tê ceribandin
Metirsî û rûbirûbûn di nav bûyerekê de serbixwe neEntegrala windahiyê ji hesabkirinê re maqûl dihêleBi lihevhatineke copula li ser tomarên hevbeş re bidin ber hev
Girêdan li nêzî xala xebatê xêzik inDihêle şok di A de belav bibinJi derveyî rêza xêzik tevlihev bike û bide ber hev
Xêzên lawaziyê di navbera cihan de têne veguhastinXêzikên herêmî kêm tên dîtinLi hember windahiyên çavdêrîkirî erê bike li cihê ku hene
Têketin
danehevên bi guhertoyan û çavkaniyê
Derketin
belavkirin, tu carî jimarên tenê
Kod
bi qerta modelê û ceribandinan re hat weşandin
Zêdebûn
heman dane, kod, jîngeh û tov
Formulasyonên standard ên xetereyê û qada rewşê; texmînên navborî ji bo rêbazê tîpîk in, ji bo nirxandinê hatine diyarkirin, ne encam in.
Prensîbên rêber ên FAIR · GO FAIR û FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumRêwerzên ji bo birêvebirina hevgirtî ya nediyarîyan · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
06Erêkirin

How results are checked.

Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.

Kontrol bikinHow it is done
Sensitivity to weightsRankings are recomputed across plausible weight ranges and changes in the preferred option are reported
Value of informationThe expected value of reducing an uncertainty is estimated before commissioning further study
Requisite model reviewDecision makers confirm that the model captures the objectives and options they consider relevant

Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.

07Pêvajo

Pêvajo çawa dimeşe.

Process explorer · Process

Decision analysis for risk management: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

10 steps4 qonax

Pêvajo

Decision analysis for risk management: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01MetirsîDataset · Board risk committeeThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02RûbirûbûnDataset · Board risk committeeThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03HesasîDataset · Board risk committeeThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Board risk committeeThe ability of pergalan, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.

  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Board risk committeeRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06LawazîComponent · Board risk committeeThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07XetereModel · xetera pergalî ManagementRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.

  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Board risk committeeRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09Xetera mayîRecord · Board risk committeeThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.

  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Board risk committeeThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

08Connections

Topics that rely on this method.

09Stewardship

Who maintains the method.

xetera pergalî Management stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.

Canonical page: Decision analysis under uncertainty

10Pirs

Pirs û bersiv.

What are the limits of decision analysis under uncertainty in this field?
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
How are results checked?
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method’s use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
Çavdêrxaneya canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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Ji vê rûpelê delîl bidin.

rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

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Rêveberiya xetera pergalî

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