GCRI · Food Nexus

Reviewed models and scenarios

Model descriptions for Food Nexus are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.

01Workspace

The workspace for reviewed models and scenarios.

Build workspace

Food · Reviewed models · Run R-5133 · Example interface, not a record

Run in progressGCRI · Food Nexus

Runs

same inputs, versioned

R-7562Agricultural, soilv4.70.41Running
R-5510Ecology and biodiversityv9.70.80Drift
R-4269Earth observationv7.30.53Passed
R-9463Spatial statisticsv6.30.87Failed test

Model card

Method
Agricultural, soil and food science
Inputs
Market price survey, Vegetation index composite
Validation
held-out period, skill reported
Label
MODELLED

Run log

  1. 00:00:19InfoIngest market price survey
  2. 00:04:12InfoSchema and licence checks passed
  3. 00:05:40WarnGap filled by interpolation, flagged
  4. 00:11:03DoneCalibration complete
  5. 00:26:55GateIndependent test queued
Build workspace.Illustrative interface; not live data.

Food Nexus · Build workspace. Build workspace: example names and illustrative values, not a record.

02What is shown

Released, referenced and rights-cleared.

  • Time and space reference for every view.
  • Sources and licence.
  • Uncertainty and known limits.
  • Version and date of release.
03Model classes

The kinds of model food system work relies on.

Model classOpen examplesQuestion it answersValidation
Process-based crop modelsDSSAT, APSIM, WOFOSTYield response to weather, soils and managementField trials and multi-model comparison
Global gridded crop modelsModels in the ISIMIP and AgMIP ensemblesLarge-scale yield change under climate scenariosReproduction of historical yield anomalies
Partial-equilibrium market modelsIMPACT, GLOBIOM, the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo modelPrices, trade and production under shocksBack-casting of past price episodes
Food security outcome modelsLivelihood and household economy approachesWho loses access when prices or incomes changeComparison with survey outcomes

Price paths from market models are scenarios. They are not forecasts and are not used for trading.

04Process

How the process runs.

Process

Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability

In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.

  1. 01 Drivers

    1. 01HazardDataset · Market information unitThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
    2. 02ExposureDataset · Market information unitThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
    3. 03SensitivityDataset · Market information unitThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
    4. 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Market information unitThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
  2. 02 Assessment

    1. 05Risk from responsesComponent · Market information unitRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
    2. 06VulnerabilityComponent · Market information unitThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
    3. 07RiskModel · Food NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
  3. 03 Response

    1. 08Risk management and responseStep · Market information unitRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
    2. 09Residual riskRecord · Market information unitThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
  4. 04 Decision

    1. 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Market information unitThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.

Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.

05Status

Releases appear as they are reviewed.

Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.

06Sources

Where this page’s references lead.

The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.

07Questions

Questions and answers.

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GCRIFood NexusGlobal Sector Risk and ResilienceCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
Food Nexus

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