Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Indonesia’s risk is climatic, geophysical and supply-linked at once
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Flood and landslide sequence across rice-growing islands
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 57 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.157 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, urban population, life expectancy at birth and total fertility rate, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (65 and above, urban) and 2024 (life expectancy, fertility). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, GDP growth, GNI per capita (Atlas method), poverty headcount at national lines and agriculture value added, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse-gas emissions excluding LULUCF (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), net energy imports and access to electricity, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, terrestrial protected areas and annual freshwater withdrawals, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (protected areas), 2024 (forest area) and 2022 (withdrawals). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/ER.LND.PTLD.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting, current health expenditure and population living in slums, Indonesia. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023 (stunting, health expenditure) and 2022 (slums). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/IDN/indicator/SH.STA.STNT.ZS?format=json Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7International Monetary Fund (ed.), Indonesia country page: Article IV consultation of January 2026 and July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026 projection. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IDN Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6
  8. 8Ember (ed.), “Indonesia” country page, electricity generation mix. Ember, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/indonesia/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9Climate Action Tracker (ed.), “Indonesia” country assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute; the page lists an update dated 28 September 2026. Observation year 2024 (renewables) and 2035 (target gap). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/ Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  10. 10Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: Indonesia, reference date 29 January 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025 (production) and 2025/26 (imports). Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.fao.org/giews/countrybrief/country.jsp?code=IDN Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  11. 11Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Republic of Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2025. Observation year 2025. Submission text not read; its existence is taken from [12]. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  12. 12Climate Change Laws of the World (ed.), “Indonesia Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC3.0)” and “Republic of Indonesia’s Second NDC,” document records. Grantham Research Institute and Climate Policy Radar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://climate-laws.org/geographies/indonesia Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  13. 13Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), “Indonesia.” Wikimedia Foundation. Observation year 2026. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia. Used only for the count of 38 provinces; the primary source, the Ministry of Home Affairs, was not read. Cited in the summary
  15. 15Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 24 of 2007 on Disaster Management. Jakarta, 2007. Observation year 2007 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB (ed.), Indonesian Disaster Data and Information (DIBI). BNPB, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the page returned no data at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://dibi.bnpb.go.id/ Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Statistics Indonesia, BPS (ed.), national statistical releases (population, social and economic series). BPS, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the site returned a 403 error at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://www.bps.go.id/en Cited in the summary, chapter 4
  18. 18Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency, BMKG (ed.), climate and geophysical monitoring records. BMKG, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
  19. 19Ministry of Environment and Forestry (ed.), national greenhouse-gas inventory system (SIGN-SMART). Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ed.), Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
  21. 21PLN (ed.), Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL). PLN, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; the plan text was not read at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22National Food Agency (ed.), food balance and self-sufficiency statistics. National Food Agency, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
  23. 23Ministry of Health (ed.), Indonesia Health Survey and nutrition survey results. Ministry of Health, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
  24. 24Ministry of Public Works (ed.), water resources and infrastructure records. Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta. Source for a designed gap; not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  25. 25Global Nature Watch (ed.), “Indonesia deforestation rates and statistics.” Global Nature Watch. Source for a designed gap; the page returned a title only at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Accessed 3 November 2026. https://globalnaturewatch.org/dashboards/country/IDN/ Cited in chapter 8
  26. 26Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Taxonomy for Sustainable Finance in Indonesia. OJK, Jakarta. Observation year 2024 (latest edition known). Status and text not read at evidence close. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27Financial Services Authority, OJK (ed.), Regulation No. 51/POJK.03/2017 on the Implementation of Sustainable Finance. OJK, Jakarta, 2017. Observation year 2017 (enactment). Current consolidated text not read. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  28. 28Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 98 of 2021 on the Implementation of Carbon Economic Value. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 7 of 2021 on the Harmonisation of Tax Regulations. Jakarta, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Presidential Regulation No. 112 of 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 3 of 2022 on the State Capital. Jakarta, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6
  32. 32Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2019 on Water Resources. Jakarta, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 18 of 2012 on Food. Jakarta, 2012. Observation year 2012. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34Government of the Republic of Indonesia (ed.), Law No. 17 of 2023 on Health. Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership Secretariat (ed.), Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan. JETP Secretariat, Jakarta, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Indonesia 2022: Energy Policy Review. IEA, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  45. 45S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026.
  46. 46OECD (ed.), OECD Economic Surveys: Indonesia 2024. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2024. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2024. Cited in chapter 6
  49. 49United Nations Environment Programme (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. UNEP, Nairobi, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 6
  51. 51H. Z. Abidin, H. Andreas, I. Gumilar et al., “Land subsidence of Jakarta (Indonesia) and its relation with urban development,” Natural Hazards, vol. 59, pp. 1753–1771, 2011. Observation year 2011. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  52. 52D. Murdiyarso, J. Purbopuspito, J. B. Kauffman et al., “The potential of Indonesian mangrove forests for global climate change mitigation,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 5, pp. 1089–1092, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  53. 53J. Koplitz, L. J. Mickley, M. E. Marlier et al., “Public health impacts of the severe haze in Equatorial Asia in September–October 2015,” Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, 094023, 2016. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3
  54. 54FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2024. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  55. 55WHO and UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000–2024. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Source for a designed gap; Indonesia values not retrieved at evidence close. Observation year none bound. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
  56. 56World Bank (ed.), Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year 2023. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6
  57. 57Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Not opened at evidence close. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Indonesia Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baselineQ1 2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
IDNNR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-NAT-IDN-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. IDN edition Reports Indonesia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; IDN is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Indonesia Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Indonesia’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-IDN-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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