Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables14 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
    1. S.1 Abstract
    2. S.2 Key messages
    3. S.3 Headline finding
    4. S.4 At a glance
    5. S.5 What each steward reads in it
    6. S.6 What this edition is, and is not
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

S.1Abstract

Eurasia, as the series reads it, is two member countries, Türkiye and the Russian Federation, that meet across the Black Sea, the Turkish Straits and two gas pipelines, and that differ sharply in size, climate and energy position. The World Bank series gives 85.9 million residents for Türkiye and 143.5 million for Russia in 20251. Their combined greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were 3,155 Mt CO₂e in 2024, of which Russia emitted 81.6% on this basis5. Türkiye imported 70.1% of the energy it used in 2024 and Russia was a net exporter of an amount equal to 70.7% of its energy use7. In 2025 Türkiye had its driest year since at least 196415, hydropower there fell from 74.6 to 57.3 TWh while gas generation rose from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh6, and Istanbul’s reservoirs held 20.29% of capacity on 21 November 202526. Western Russia saw annual temperatures up to 2.5 °C above average in 202514. The earthquakes of February 2023 caused direct damage estimated at US$34.2 billion in Türkiye30. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a national dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Eurasia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

  1. Combined emissions excluding land use were 3,155 Mt CO₂e in 2024; Russia emits about four fifths on this basis. Inventory totals differ.5

    Where do emissions stand?Reported

  2. Fossil sources gave 56.7% in Türkiye and 64.3% in Russia in 2025; Russia relies on gas and nuclear, Türkiye on coal, hydropower, wind and solar.6

    How different are the electricity systems?Reported

  3. Türkiye imported 70.1% of its energy in 2024 and Russia exported an amount equal to 70.7% of its use. Two pipelines link them.729

    How exposed is energy supply?Reported

  4. Türkiye had its driest year since at least 1964 and Istanbul’s reservoirs fell to 20.29% in November.1526

    How severe was the 2025 drought?Reported

  5. Western Russia was up to 2.5 °C above average and Türkiye reached 50.5 °C in July.1419

    How hot was 2025?Reported

  6. Russia produced 120.4 million tonnes and Türkiye 39.0 million tonnes in 2024; 2025 is not bound.1038

    How much grain do the members produce?Reported

  7. Heat-related deaths are not bound for either member.20

    How many people died of heat?Not bound

  8. A dry year that cuts Turkish hydropower and reservoirs while the Black Sea grain basin is weak. SCN-EUA-DRY-01

    What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

In 2025 Türkiye had its driest year since at least 1964, and water-year rainfall was 26.3% below the 1991 to 2020 average, the lowest in 52 years.

Figure S.1Hydropower generation in Türkiye (TWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
202474.6
202557.3

Source: Ember6. The fall follows the 2025 drought1525. Gas generation rose over the same year from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh6.

A dry year is an energy event as well as a water event. Less hydropower meant more gas burnt in a country that imports most of its energy7, and Istanbul’s reservoirs reached 20.29% in November26. Water, power and import dependence therefore need to be read together.

S.4At a glance

85.9million

Türkiye population, 20251

143.5million

Russian Federation population, 20251

3,155Mt CO₂e

combined emissions excluding land use, 20245

43.3 · 17.4%

renewables in electricity, Türkiye · Russia, 20256

70.1%

Türkiye net energy imports as a share of energy use, 20247

2members

Türkiye, Russian Federation

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Eurasian risk: drought and heat act on water, power and food together in Türkiye, while Russia’s exposure lies in heat, fire and thaw, and in what it exports.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot day or a price change.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Quake and drought loss series are not bound, and the damage assessment of 2023 shows the scale of a single event.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Eurasia publishes strong series on emissions and electricity through international compilations.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Eurasia’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026 read across Türkiye, Russian Federation. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a regional risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member’s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, Key events overview. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) (ed.), grain and legume harvest 2025 (preliminary and revised totals reported by several outlets, 139.4 to 144.6 million tonnes, which disagree; taken from search-result summaries). Rosstat, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this summary

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Executive summary: Executive summary. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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