Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 51 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.151 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, population ages 0-14 and 65 and above, and urban population, as a share of the total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  3. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP (current US$) and GDP per capita (current US$) (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, general government gross debt, current account balance and unemployment (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, values as served on 2026-11-03; years after 2025 are IMF projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, forest area, agricultural land, and terrestrial protected areas as a share of land area, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, life expectancy at birth, under-5 mortality rate and current health expenditure as a share of GDP, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, employment in agriculture, agriculture value added as a share of GDP, and Gini index, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  14. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  16. 16Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Soil moisture. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  17. 17Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section River flow and flooding. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  18. 18Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Wildfires. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  19. 19Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, Key events overview. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
  20. 20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  21. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025), Paro, 17 June 2026. WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  22. 22World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (publication page and key messages, 23 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  23. 23Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation (country assessment page: 2035 target, net zero target, land-use sink and renewable target). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  24. 24Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye (country assessment page: net zero target, emissions trading system, electricity and renewable targets). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  25. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
  26. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  27. 27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
  28. 28TASS (ed.), Russian population stands at 146 mln as of January 1, 2025 (news report of the preliminary estimate of the Federal State Statistics Service, Rosstat, 31 January 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  29. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31POST-CLOSE, context only: United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, Helsinki, 17 March 1992 (status of ratification as at 3 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base by the generator; not read in this drafting step). The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025 (bulletin of 9 February 2026; the page returned an error and the figure 86,092,168 was taken from a search-result summary). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emission Statistics 1990-2022 (558.3 Mt CO2e for 2022 taken from a search-result summary; the 1990-2024 bulletin returned no content). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), 2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record (report on the annual climate report of the Russian hydrometeorological service, Roshydromet; anomaly of 1.24 °C taken from a search-result summary; the file could not be read). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency (official January to August burnt area of 4.5 million hectares taken from a search-result summary). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 8
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), Türkiye emissions trading system and second nationally determined contribution (2035 level of 643 Mt CO2e taken from a search-result summary). ICAP, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) (ed.), grain and legume harvest 2025 (preliminary and revised totals reported by several outlets, 139.4 to 144.6 million tonnes, which disagree; taken from search-result summaries). Rosstat, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) (ed.), burnt area statistics for Türkiye, 2025 (about 49,652 hectares by early July, taken from a search-result summary; the portal loaded without data). Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Russian Federation (ed.), National Inventory Report 2025 submission to the UNFCCC (land-use sink values as relayed by the Climate Action Tracker; the report itself was not read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law (İklim Kanunu), adopted 2 July 2025 (date taken from a search-result summary; the text was not read). Official Gazette, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest, 1992), taken from memory; the Commission web address returned unrelated content and was not used. Black Sea Commission. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux, 1936), taken from memory. League of Nations Treaty Series. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Paris Agreement (2015), taken from memory. United Nations, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, taken from memory. UNDRR, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, taken from memory. CBD, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change, 2018, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: M. Rantanen et al., The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth & Environment, 2022, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. McElwee et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (nexus assessment), IPBES, 2024, taken from memory. IPBES secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026-2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Türkiye and the Russian Federation (national editions in preparation; no pack exists in the registry). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Eurasia Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
REG-EUANR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-REG-EUA-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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Mirrors and harvest

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. REG-EUA edition Reports Eurasia 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-EUA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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