- Eurasia 2026
- Chapter 8
Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter
The two member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so there is no reference group on this page.
| Member | State at baseline | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | population 85.9 million; emissions 579.5 Mt; renewables 43.3% and fossil 56.7% of electricity; net energy imports 70.1% of use; driest year since at least 1964; forests 29.5% of land | 1567915 | Reported |
| Russian Federation | population 143.5 million; emissions 2,575.7 Mt; fossil 64.3%, nuclear 18.3% and hydropower 16.7% of electricity; net exporter of energy; forests 50.8% of land; cereal output 120.4 Mt | 1567910 | Reported |
Couplings across members
- CLI → WAT → ENE in Türkiye through low rainfall, hydropower and gas
- ENE → ENE through the pipelines that link the members
- FOO → TRD as cereal output and trade move together
- CLI → BIO as fire and heat reach forests in both members
Evidence to bind in 2027
- national inventory totals for 2024
- heat death and fire series by member
- grain output for 2025
8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter
A shared sea, two pipelines and a strait carry risk between the members. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.
| Basin | Members involved | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Sea | Türkiye and the Russian Federation; both are coastal states; water quality and fish stocks not read | 42 | NOT BOUND |
| Turkish Straits | Türkiye; the passage regime is set by a 1936 convention; traffic not bound | 43 | NOT BOUND |
| Transboundary waters convention | Russia is listed as a party; Türkiye is not listed in the status table of 3 November 2026 | 31 | Reported |
| Reservoirs of the Marmara region | Türkiye only; Istanbul at 20.29% on 21 November 2025; not a shared system | 26 | Reported |
| Grid | Members involved | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gas pipelines | about 11 billion m³ of Russian pipeline gas reached Türkiye in January to June 2025, up 28%; the half-year share of imports is not stated | 29 | Reported |
| Electricity systems | generation is reported for each member; no cross-border flow between members is documented in the sources read | 6 | NOT BOUND |
| Nuclear generation | Russia generated 218.6 TWh in 2025; Türkiye none; plant status not read | 6 | NOT BOUND |
| Gas storage | storage depth in both members not read | 29 | NOT BOUND |
| Dry-year analogue | hydropower fell 23% in Türkiye in 2025 while gas generation rose 24% (ESTIMATED) | 6 | Reported |
Couplings through shared systems
- CLI → WAT → ENE low rainfall into hydropower and gas
- TRD → ENE a gas route change into power cost
- FOO → TRD cereal output into trade
- WAT → FOO irrigation and reservoirs
Evidence to bind in 2027
- Black Sea water quality
- Straits traffic
- gas storage depth
- cross-border electricity flows
8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter
The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.
Registry
- Regional hubs
- Istanbul
- Desks with a remit
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · GRX
- Registry record
- NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
| Hub | Member | Registry role | Member edition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Istanbul | Türkiye | G20 · hub | in preparation |
| not named in the registry | Russian Federation | G20 | in preparation |
What a hub does in this series
- Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
- Hub contact points are not named at baseline
- The registry names the hub and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027
8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter
The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Eurasia as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.
| Stage | What exists today | State | Next |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional hub | Istanbul is named in the series registry for the region and for Türkiye; none is named for the Russian Federation | NAMED | terms set from Q1 2027 |
| Desks | GCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registry | NAMED | work plan for Q1 2027 |
| Evidence graph | member and regional findings share identifiers | PREPARED | first sealed cut NQ-REG-EUA-2027-Q1 |
| Member editions | Türkiye in preparation; Russian Federation in preparation | MIXED | review through the chain before release |
Open at baseline
- Constitution of any regional council or working group
- Hub terms of reference and contact points
- A hub for the Russian Federation, which the registry does not name
Decisions that rest elsewhere
- Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities
- Gas contracts and pipeline operation rest with the companies and regulators concerned
- No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so none is merged with Eurasia on code
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, forest area, agricultural land, and terrestrial protected areas as a share of land area, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emission Statistics 1990-2022 (558.3 Mt CO2e for 2022 taken from a search-result summary; the 1990-2024 bulletin returned no content). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency (official January to August burnt area of 4.5 million hectares taken from a search-result summary). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Russian Federation (ed.), National Inventory Report 2025 submission to the UNFCCC (land-use sink values as relayed by the Climate Action Tracker; the report itself was not read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest, 1992), taken from memory; the Commission web address returned unrelated content and was not used. Black Sea Commission. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux, 1936), taken from memory. League of Nations Treaty Series. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31POST-CLOSE, context only: United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, Helsinki, 17 March 1992 (status of ratification as at 3 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back