Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables17 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Climate forcing
    3. 2.3 Energy
    4. 2.4 Water
    5. 2.5 Food
    6. 2.6 Health
    7. 2.7 Biodiversity
    8. 2.8 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

In 2025 Türkiye had its driest year since at least 1964, and water-year rainfall was 26.3% below the 1991 to 2020 average, the lowest in 52 years.

Figure 2.1Hydropower generation in Türkiye (TWh)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
202474.6
202557.3

Source: Ember6. The fall follows the 2025 drought1525. Gas generation rose over the same year from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh6.

Implication

A dry year is an energy event as well as a water event. Less hydropower meant more gas burnt in a country that imports most of its energy7, and Istanbul’s reservoirs reached 20.29% in November26. Water, power and import dependence therefore need to be read together.

What would move it

Winter and spring rainfall, reservoir fill in Marmara, hydropower output, gas imports and the 2026 summer heat would each move this finding. Heat mortality and the Russian share of Turkish gas imports are not bound2029.

2.2Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

    Greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use were 579.5 Mt CO₂e in Türkiye and 2,575.7 Mt CO₂e in the Russian Federation in 2024 on the World Bank series, of which 460.0 and 2,009.2 Mt were carbon dioxide.5

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

    In 2025 Türkiye had its driest year since at least 1964, and water-year rainfall was 26.3% below the 1991 to 2020 average, the lowest in 52 years.1525

  3. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    In 2025 annual temperatures in western Russia reached up to 2.5 °C above average and the north-western winter anomaly was a record 7 °C; Türkiye recorded 50.5 °C at Silopi on 25 July.1419

2.3Energy

  1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

    Fossil sources supplied 56.7% of Turkish electricity in 2025; hydropower fell from 74.6 TWh in 2024 to 57.3 TWh, and gas generation rose from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh.6

  2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005

    In 2025 Russia generated 544.96 TWh from gas (45.6%), 218.62 TWh from nuclear (18.3%), 211.17 TWh from coal (17.7%) and 199.95 TWh from hydropower (16.7%); wind and solar gave 0.6%.6

  3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

    Türkiye imported 70.1% of the energy it used in 2024 while Russia was a net exporter equal to 70.7% of its use; Russian pipeline gas to Türkiye was about 11 billion cubic metres in January to June 2025, up 28% on the year.729

2.4Water

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

    Istanbul’s reservoirs held 20.29% of capacity (about 176 million m³ of 868.7 million) on 21 November 2025, the lowest for that date in the series published for 2016 to 2025.26

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008

    Renewable internal freshwater was 2,671 m³ per person in Türkiye and 29,895 m³ in Russia in 2022; withdrawals were 28.4% of internal resources in Türkiye and 1.5% in Russia.8

2.5Food

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

    Cereal production in 2024 was 39.0 million tonnes in Türkiye (42.2 in 2023) and 120.4 million tonnes in Russia (136.3 in 2023).10

2.6Health

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

    Mean exposure to PM2.5 was 26.4 µg/m³ in Türkiye and 11.6 in Russia in 2023; life expectancy was 77.4 and 73.4 years in 2024; 10.6% and 17.8% of people were aged 65 or over in 2025.21112

2.7Biodiversity

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

    Forests covered 29.5% of Türkiye and 50.8% of Russia in 2024; terrestrial protected areas were 7% and 11.5%; a forestry academic’s tally put Turkish fire losses in 2025 at about 80,000 hectares by early October.927

2.8Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry year in which low rainfall, reduced hydropower and high gas burn in Türkiye coincide with a weak grain year in the Black Sea basin. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 19Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, Key events overview. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, population ages 0-14 and 65 and above, and urban population, as a share of the total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, life expectancy at birth, under-5 mortality rate and current health expenditure as a share of GDP, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, forest area, agricultural land, and terrestrial protected areas as a share of land area, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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