Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Risks and capability

Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.

5 min read0 figures1 table17 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
    1. 4.1 Risk objects
    2. 4.2 Capability ladder
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

  1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EUA-CLI-001

    Drought and heat in Anatolia and the Black Sea basin

    Driver
    low rainfall and extreme heat
    Exposure
    cities, farming and hydropower
    Vulnerability
    low renewable water per person8
    Capacity
    reservoir management; performance not bound26
    Cascade
    CLI → WAT, ENE, FOO
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-EUA-ENE-002

    Gas supply disruption in an import-dependent system

    Driver
    pipeline fault, price spike or supply change
    Exposure
    power, industry, heating
    Vulnerability
    70.1% of energy imported7
    Capacity
    storage and contract flexibility not bound29
    Cascade
    TRD → ENE → FIN
    Horizon
    1–5 years

  3. InferredEQL 3RSK-EUA-CLI-003

    Wildfire and thaw in forests and the north

    Driver
    warm, dry seasons
    Exposure
    forests, settlements, northern infrastructure
    Vulnerability
    permafrost exposure not bound
    Capacity
    fire services; performance not bound2736
    Cascade
    CLI → BIO, INF, HLT
    Horizon
    seasonal

  4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EUA-INF-004

    Earthquake and seismic shocks to dense systems

    Driver
    major seismic events
    Exposure
    housing, lifelines, southern provinces
    Vulnerability
    building stock condition not bound
    Capacity
    recovery programmes not bound30
    Cascade
    INF → FIN, HLT, FOO
    Horizon
    multi-decade

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
FunctionRungLevelStrongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigationLISTEDTürkiye net zero 2053 and a Climate Law2441; Russia 2035 target and net zero 206023; delivery not bound
Monitoring and observationEXISTSweather services and agencies publish records relayed by142535
Early warningNOT BOUNDsource: weather and disaster services · blocker: not retrieved
Preparedness and planningNOT BOUNDsource: national disaster plans · blocker: not read
Redundancy and reservesNOT BOUNDsource: gas storage and reservoir operators2629 · blocker: capacity and levels beyond Istanbul not read
ResponseNOT BOUNDsource: after-action records for fire, drought and quake events · blocker: not retrieved
Continuity of critical servicesNOT BOUNDsource: utility and regulator reports · blocker: not retrieved
RecoveryLISTEDdamage and displacement assessed after the 2023 earthquakes30; programme delivery not bound
AdaptationNOT BOUNDsource: national adaptation plans · blocker: not read
Social protectionNOT BOUNDsource: income-support and disaster-payment records · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insuranceNOT BOUNDsource: insurer and reinsurer loss data · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordinationLISTEDthe water convention lists Russia as a party and does not list Türkiye31; Black Sea arrangements not read42
Technical infrastructureNOT BOUNDsource: asset-condition registers · blocker: not published
WorkforceNOT BOUNDsource: health and emergency workforce registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacityEXISTScompound-event and Arctic warming research is published4748
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency (official January to August burnt area of 4.5 million hectares taken from a search-result summary). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 24Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye (country assessment page: net zero target, emissions trading system, electricity and renewable targets). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law (İklim Kanunu), adopted 2 July 2025 (date taken from a search-result summary; the text was not read). Official Gazette, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 23Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation (country assessment page: 2035 target, net zero target, land-use sink and renewable target). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), 2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record (report on the annual climate report of the Russian hydrometeorological service, Roshydromet; anomaly of 1.24 °C taken from a search-result summary; the file could not be read). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 31POST-CLOSE, context only: United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, Helsinki, 17 March 1992 (status of ratification as at 3 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest, 1992), taken from memory; the Commission web address returned unrelated content and was not used. Black Sea Commission. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change, 2018, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: M. Rantanen et al., The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth & Environment, 2022, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 4: Risks and capability. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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