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Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.

8 min read2 figures2 tables16 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
    1. 1.1 The questions this part answers
    2. 1.2 The argument
    3. 1.3 Twenty couplings between five systems
    4. 1.4 Reinforcing loops
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

  • Where is Eurasia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
  • Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
  • Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
  • What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

  • Narrative
  • Headline finding
  • Lead figure
  • Member system cards
  • Shared basins and grids
  • Hub list
  • Regional pathway
  • Twelve-domain reading
  • Sector screens
  • Dependency matrix
  • Risk objects
  • Capability ladder
  • Scenario
  • Three lenses
  • Portfolio

1.2The argument

Türkiye had 85.9 million residents in 2025 and the Russian Federation 143.5 million on the World Bank series1. National counts differ in basis: a search summary of the Turkish registry put Türkiye at 86.1 million on 31 December 202533, and the Rosstat preliminary estimate for 1 January 2025 was 146.0 million28. This baseline reads Eurasia as a region of two members that meet across the Black Sea, the Turkish Straits and two gas pipelines, and whose systems are very different in scale.

The forcing layer was strong in 2025. Türkiye had its driest year since at least 1964, with annual precipitation 10 to 40% below average across a swathe from the United Kingdom to Türkiye and the Caucasus15. Water-year rainfall was 26.3% below the 1991 to 2020 average25. Temperatures reached 50.5 °C at Silopi on 25 July19. In western Russia annual anomalies reached up to 2.5 °C and the north-western winter anomaly set a record of 7 °C14.

The drought passed into energy and water. Hydropower in Türkiye fell from 74.6 TWh in 2024 to 57.3 TWh in 2025 while gas generation rose from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh6. Istanbul’s reservoirs held 20.29% of capacity on 21 November 202526. Türkiye also has far less renewable water per person (2,671 m³) than Russia (29,895 m³)8.

The energy position is the sharpest contrast. Türkiye imported 70.1% of the energy it used in 2024 and Russia was a net exporter equal to 70.7% of its use7. Pipeline gas from Russia to Türkiye was about 11 billion cubic metres in the first half of 2025, up 28% on the year29. Russia generated 64.3% of its electricity from fossil fuels and 18.3% from nuclear; Türkiye generated 56.7% from fossil fuels and no nuclear power6.

Hazard and loss records show what a single event can do. The February 2023 earthquakes caused direct damage estimated at US$34.2 billion in Türkiye, about 4% of 2021 GDP, and left 1.25 million people temporarily homeless30. A forestry academic put Turkish fire losses in 2025 at about 80,000 hectares by early October27. The final burnt area for Russia in 2025 is not bound36.

This edition therefore reads Eurasia’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask two questions: where does a shock travel next between the two members, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How different are the electricity systems? Renewables in total generation, 2025 (%)

Renewables supplied 43.3% of Turkish and 17.4% of Russian electricity in 20256. In Türkiye the total is hydropower (16.2%), wind (11.1%) and solar (10.5%) with the rest from bioenergy and other sources; in Russia it is almost all hydropower (16.7%). Russia’s nuclear share of 18.3% is low-carbon but not renewable6.

ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Türkiye43.3
Russian Federation17.4

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE-01-003

43.3%

Türkiye renewables share of generation, 20256

17.4%

Russian Federation renewables share, 20256

475.8gCO₂e/kWh

Türkiye emissions intensity of generation, 20256

446.9gCO₂e/kWh

Russian Federation emissions intensity, 20256

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Eurasia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

  • Strong
  • Moderate
  • Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, toWATENEFOOHLTBIO
WAT Water·STRONG
hydro · thermal cooling		STRONG
irrigation · rain-fed yield		STRONG
safe water · sanitation		STRONG
flows · wetlands
ENE EnergyMODERATE
pumping · desalination		·STRONG
fuel · fertiliser · cold chain		STRONG
air pollution · cooling		MODERATE
land use · mining
FOO FoodSTRONG
≈70% of withdrawals		WEAK
bioenergy feedstock		·STRONG
nutrition · food safety		STRONG
land conversion
HLT HealthWEAK
workforce		WEAK
workforce		MODERATE
labour · disease		·WEAK
residues
BIO BiodiversitySTRONG
regulation · filtration		MODERATE
biomass · hydrology		STRONG
pollination · soils		MODERATE
zoonoses · medicines		·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

  1. 01

    CLI → WAT → ENE

    Low rainfall cuts hydropower and reservoirs and raises gas burn.

    Reported Türkiye 2025625

  2. 02

    CLI → FOO → TRD

    A dry year lowers grain output and moves trade and prices.

    Inferred cereal output 202410; no 2025 series bound

  3. 03

    TRD → ENE → FIN

    A gas supply change reaches power cost and public budgets.

    Inferred pipeline volumes 202529; no event bound

  4. 04

    INF → ENE → all

    A major shock to the built environment spreads across sectors.

    Reported earthquakes 202330

  5. 05

    CLI → BIO → CLI

    Fire and thaw release carbon and raise exposure in forests.

    Inferred Turkish fires 202527; Russian series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
LoopFirst directionSecond direction
WAT and FOOWater to food: irrigation · rain-fed yieldFood to water: ≈70% of withdrawals
WAT and BIOWater to biodiversity: flows · wetlandsBiodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIOFood to biodiversity: land conversionBiodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025 (bulletin of 9 February 2026; the page returned an error and the figure 86,092,168 was taken from a search-result summary). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 28TASS (ed.), Russian population stands at 146 mln as of January 1, 2025 (news report of the preliminary estimate of the Federal State Statistics Service, Rosstat, 31 January 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 19Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, Key events overview. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency (official January to August burnt area of 4.5 million hectares taken from a search-result summary). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 1: Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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