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Systems and sectors at baseline

8 min read0 figures2 tables26 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
    1. 3.1 Where each system stood at evidence close
    2. 3.2 Domain posture
    3. 3.3 Sector screens
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Istanbul reservoirs, share of capacity on 21 November 2025

20.29%

The lowest for that date in the ten-year series published, against 27.49% a year earlier.

Reported2025Daily Sabah26

ENE · Energy

Fossil share of Turkish electricity generation

56.7%

Hydropower fell from 74.6 to 57.3 TWh in a year and gas generation rose from 63.3 to 78.4 TWh.

Reported2025Ember6

FOO · Food

Cereal production, Russian Federation

120.4Mt

Türkiye produced 39.0 Mt. Both were below 2023 (136.3 and 42.2 Mt). Output for 2025 is not bound.

Reported2024World Bank10

HLT · Health

Mean annual exposure to fine particles (PM2.5), Türkiye

26.4µg/m³

Russia was at 11.6 µg/m³. Heat-related deaths are not bound for either member.

Reported2023World Bank11

BIO · Biodiversity

Forest area as a share of land, Russian Federation

50.8%

Türkiye 29.5%. Terrestrial protected area: Russia 11.5%, Türkiye 7%.

Reported2024World Bank9

SYS · Cross-system

Direct damage of the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye

34.2US$ bn

About 4% of 2021 GDP; 1.25 million people temporarily homeless; 81% of damage in five provinces.

Reported2023World Bank30

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
DomainPosture at baselineCouplingStatus
WATRenewable freshwater 2,671 m³ per person in Türkiye against 29,895 in Russia; Istanbul reservoirs at 20.29% in November 2025826.WAT → ENE · WAT → FOOReported EQL 4
ENEFossil fuels 56.7% of Turkish and 64.3% of Russian electricity in 2025; Türkiye imports 70.1% of its energy67.ENE → allReported EQL 5
FOOCereal output fell in both members in 202410. Output for 2025 not bound38.FOO ← WAT, CLIReported EQL 4
HLTPM2.5 exposure 26.4 µg/m³ in Türkiye and 11.6 in Russia in 202311. Heat deaths not bound20.HLT ← CLI, ENEReported EQL 4
BIOForest 29.5% of Türkiye and 50.8% of Russia in 2024; about 80,000 ha burnt in Türkiye by October 2025927. Condition not bound.BIO ↔ WAT, FOOReported EQL 3
CLIDriest year for Türkiye since at least 1964; western Russia up to 2.5 °C above average1415.forcing on all systemsReported EQL 5
INFEarthquake damage of US$34.2 billion in 202330. Pipeline and Straits flows not bound29.INF → allReported EQL 4
FINQuake loss insurance and fiscal exposure not bound; IMF projects growth of 2.7% and 0.9% for 20264.FIN ← CLINot bound EQL 2
DATDigital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.DAT → ENE, FINExpert input EQL 2
AICData-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.AIC → ENE, WATNot bound EQL 1
MINMineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.MIN ← TRDNot bound EQL 1
TRDGas trade between members rose in the first half of 202529; Straits traffic not bound43.TRD → allInferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
CodeSectorBaseline evidenceExposure to watchEvidence coverage
GS-00Cross-systemcompound drought, heat and import dependencea dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basinPARTIAL
GS-01Waterrainfall 26.3% below average in Türkiye25low reservoirs in a dry yearGOOD
GS-02Energygeneration mix by source6import dependence; gas linkGOOD
GS-03Foodcereal output 202410drought and heatTHIN
GS-04HealthPM2.5 and life expectancy1112heat load on servicesTHIN
GS-05FinanceIMF growth and inflation series4quake and drought lossesTHIN
GS-06Developmentincome and inequality series313regional inequality not boundTHIN
GS-07Climatenational targets listed2324heat, drought and firePARTIAL
GS-08Disasterearthquake damage assessed30; fire area partial27compound and sequential eventsPARTIAL
GS-09Infrastructurepipeline volume reported for 202529single points of failureTHIN
GS-10CitiesIstanbul reservoir record26urban water demand and heatPARTIAL
GS-11Biodiversityforest and protected area shares9condition not boundPARTIAL
GS-12Earth observationCopernicus and WMO assessments published141821continuity of recordsGOOD
GS-13Cyber and digitaldependencies not mappedsystemic outagesTHIN
GS-14Policyclimate targets and trading system listed2324coordination between membersTHIN
GS-15Sciencecompound-event and Arctic warming research4748translation to the membersTHIN

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, forest area, agricultural land, and terrestrial protected areas as a share of land area, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) (ed.), grain and legume harvest 2025 (preliminary and revised totals reported by several outlets, 139.4 to 144.6 million tonnes, which disagree; taken from search-result summaries). Rosstat, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  14. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  15. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, general government gross debt, current account balance and unemployment (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, values as served on 2026-11-03; years after 2025 are IMF projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  16. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux, 1936), taken from memory. League of Nations Treaty Series. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  17. 25Daily Sabah (ed.), Rainfall in Türkiye falls to lowest level in decades in 2025 (news report of 29 December 2025 with data compiled by Anadolu Agency from the General Directorate of Meteorology, Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  18. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, life expectancy at birth, under-5 mortality rate and current health expenditure as a share of GDP, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  19. 3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP (current US$) and GDP per capita (current US$) (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  20. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, employment in agriculture, agriculture value added as a share of GDP, and Gini index, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  21. 23Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation (country assessment page: 2035 target, net zero target, land-use sink and renewable target). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  22. 24Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye (country assessment page: net zero target, emissions trading system, electricity and renewable targets). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  23. 18Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Wildfires. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  24. 21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025), Paro, 17 June 2026. WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  25. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change, 2018, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  26. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: M. Rantanen et al., The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth & Environment, 2022, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 3: Systems and sectors at baseline. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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