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Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

3 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
a second dry year with low rainfall, high summer heat and high power demand
Analogues
2025 rainfall and reservoirs1526; Turkish hydropower and gas in 20256; cereal output in 202410
Interventions
none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    low rainfall empties reservoirs serving large cities

    Istanbul 202526

  2. 2

    WAT → ENE

    hydropower falls and gas generation rises

    Türkiye 20256

  3. 3

    ENE → TRD

    higher gas demand raises pipeline import needs

    pipeline volume 202529

  4. 4

    CLI → FOO

    a weak grain year reduces output and moves trade

    cereal output 202410

  5. 5

    FOO, ENE → FIN

    import bills and food prices load households and budgets

    no series bound

  6. 6

    FIN → recovery

    investment in water and power slows where budgets are tight

    no series bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01 would travel through Eurasia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterLow rainfall empties reservoirs serving large cities. Analogue or source: Istanbul 2025 [26].Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 1
02 Water to energyHydropower falls and gas generation rises. Analogue or source: Türkiye 2025 [6].Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 2
03 Energy to tradeHigher gas demand raises pipeline import needs. Analogue or source: pipeline volume 2025 [29].Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 3
04 Climate to foodA weak grain year reduces output and moves trade. Analogue or source: cereal output 2024 [10].Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 4
05 FOO, ENE to financeImport bills and food prices load households and budgets. Analogue or source: no series bound.Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 5
06 Finance to recoveryInvestment in water and power slows where budgets are tight. Analogue or source: no series bound.Edition REG-EUA, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Eurasia 2026, scenario SCN-EUA-DRY-01 (2026); Eurasia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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