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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Eurasia’s risk travels through shared seas, pipelines and dry years
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry year across Anatolia and the Black Sea basin
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. A-01

    How would a dry year load Turkish reservoirs, hydropower and gas supply, and what reaches Russian exports?

    INI-EUA-CLI-01 · dry-year compound stress; first output: dependency graph for the Marmara and Anatolian water and power chain.

  2. A-02

    How concentrated is gas supply between the two members and how resilient is the pipeline link?

    INI-EUA-ENE-02 · gas and power link; first output: flow and contract register for the two pipelines.

  3. A-03

    How do low rainfall and reservoirs reach cities, farming and cooling water?

    INI-EUA-WAT-03 · reservoirs and basins; first output: reservoir performance note for Istanbul.

  4. A-04

    How many deaths can be attributed to heat, by member and year?

    INI-EUA-HLT-04 · heat and health; first output: attribution baseline for both members.

  5. A-05

    How far do permafrost and wildfire change risk in the Russian north and Siberia?

    INI-EUA-CLI-05 · permafrost and fire; first output: exposure note for northern infrastructure.

  6. A-06

    What is the condition of forests and the Black Sea, not only their extent?

    INI-EUA-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

  7. A-07

    How exposed are grain output, trade and food access to concurrent drought and price shocks?

    To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. A-08

    Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

    Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-EUA-CLI-01Dry-year compound stress: reservoirs, power and gasInitiativeA-01PROPOSED
INI-EUA-ENE-02Gas and power link between the membersInitiativeA-02PROPOSED
INI-EUA-WAT-03Reservoirs and basins in dry yearsInitiativeA-03PROPOSED
INI-EUA-HLT-04Heat and health attributionInitiativeA-04PROPOSED
INI-EUA-CLI-05Permafrost and fire exposure in the northInitiativeA-05PROPOSED
PRJ-EUA-CLI-01aMarmara water and power dependency graphProjectA-01PROPOSED
MSN-EUA-2027-01Dry year and Black Sea basin Universe missionMissionA-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The Eurasia regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Eurasia as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

  1. 01

    National Foundries

    continuous national evidence environments

    PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

  2. 02

    National Models and Portfolios

    each country as a system of systems

    CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

  3. 03

    Quarterly national reports

    State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

    BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

  4. 04

    Regional aggregation

    Eurasia as one of ten regional clusters

    THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

  5. 05

    Global sector and strategic models

    GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

    49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

  6. 06

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

  7. 07

    Global Report

    this series

    BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

  8. 08

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 regional annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-EUA-2027-01 · Dry year and Black Sea basin Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
CLI-001 · emissionspublic recordreference for the 2027 seriesPUBLIC
CLI-002 · drought 2025INI-EUA-CLI-01dry-year compound graphPUBLIC
ENE-004 · Turkish mixINI-EUA-ENE-02gas and power linkPUBLIC
ENE-006 · import positionINI-EUA-ENE-02gas contract and flow registerPUBLIC
WAT-007 · Istanbul reservoirsINI-EUA-WAT-03reservoir performance notePUBLIC
HLT-010 · air and age profileINI-EUA-HLT-04heat and health attributionPUBLIC
BIO-011 · forests and fireINI-EUA-BIO-01condition indicatorPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-EUA-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Copernicus climate and river-flow recordsCopernicus Climate Change ServicemonthlyCLI and WAT findings
Electricity generationEmbermonthly and yearlyENE-004, ENE-005
Reservoir levelsIstanbul water administrationdailyWAT-007
Population and economyWorld Bank and IMFannualprofile
Greenhouse gas inventoriesnational submissions and international seriesannualCLI-001
Gas deliveriesTurkish regulatormonthlyENE-006
Cereal outputnational statistics and World BankannualFOO-009

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • quarterly publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-EUA-001Driest year for Türkiye in 202515CORROBORATEDCLI · WATrisk object RSK-EUA-CLI-001
SIG-EUA-002Hydropower fall in 20256CORROBORATEDWAT · ENEresearch question A-03
SIG-EUA-003Istanbul reservoirs in November 202526CORROBORATEDWAT · CLIresearch question A-03

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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