Readings from the other desks

The regional baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

15 min read0 figures8 tables40 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Eurasian risk: drought and heat act on water, power and food together in Türkiye, while Russia’s exposure lies in heat, fire and thaw, and in what it exports. Evidence is strongest for electricity and emissions series and weakest for losses, health and the cross-border flows.

CLI-002 · ENE-004 · ENE-006 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot day or a price change. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how a shared sea and two pipelines make one member’s event the other’s concern.

CLI-003 · WAT-007 · HLT-010

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Quake and drought loss series are not bound, and the damage assessment of 2023 shows the scale of a single event³⁰. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

CLI-002 · SYS-012

NEXUS

Synthesis

Eurasia publishes strong series on emissions and electricity through international compilations. The 2027 programme should bind national inventories, heat mortality, gas flows and reservoir levels, test the dry year, and measure the condition of forests and the Black Sea.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Eurasia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada)	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Eurasia regional pathway	regional pathway: hubs named in the registry	regional Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Drought, heat and a supply fault do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared sea, the pipelines and the dry year as the units of analysis, with the two members as the places where the effects land.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Risk crosses the border first

Russia’s population is 1.7 times and its emissions 4.4 times those of Türkiye on these series (ESTIMATED ratios). The edition reads each against its own distribution and never joins the two into an average that fits neither.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

A region of two unequal members

Türkiye imports most of its energy and Russia exports most of what it produces. Security depends on diversity of routes and on the response of the power system to a dry year, not on volume alone.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Supply security is a design question

Several data that matter most for risk, including heat deaths, national inventory totals and gas flows by route, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Gaps are findings too

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 regional readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Regional risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five regional system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	editions in programme as listed in the series registry	regional and sector baselines
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Water Convention, Helsinki 1992³¹	UNECE	international	IN FORCE · STATUS AT 3 NOV 2026	shared waters
Paris Agreement⁴⁴	UNFCCC	international	ADOPTED 2015	climate targets
Sendai Framework 2015–2030⁴⁵	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction
Kunming-Montreal Framework⁴⁶	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Bucharest Convention, 1992⁴²	Black Sea parties	regional	LISTED · NOT READ	sea protection
Montreux Convention, 1936⁴³	treaty parties	international	LISTED · NOT READ	Turkish Straits
Climate Law of Türkiye, 2025⁴¹	Turkish institutions	Türkiye	LISTED · NOT READ	targets and trading

Changed since 2024

Russia submitted a 2035 target of 65 to 67% of 1990 levels including land use on 29 September 2025²³
Türkiye’s Climate Law was passed in 2025 and its trading system has a pilot phase set for the third quarter of 2026²⁴⁴¹
The WMO State of the Climate in Asia 2025 was published on 17 June 2026²¹

To watch in 2027

The pilot phase of the Turkish trading system²⁴
Implementation of the Russian 2035 target²³
The status of Türkiye under the transboundary water convention³¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Eurasia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁷	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Rantanen et al.⁴⁸	journal article	2022	context	Arctic warming
McElwee et al. (eds.)⁴⁹	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
State of the Climate in Asia 2024²²	agency assessment	2025	context	regional warming
European State of the Climate 2025¹⁴	agency assessment	2026	supports	forcing

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
European State of the Climate 2025: temperature, precipitation¹⁴¹⁵	Copernicus and WMO	2026	supports	heat, drought
European State of the Climate 2025: soil, rivers, fire¹⁶¹⁷¹⁸	Copernicus and WMO	2026	context	drought, fire
State of the Climate in Asia 2025²¹	WMO	2026	context	Asian region
Key events 2025¹⁹	Copernicus and WMO	2026	supports	heat record
Heat stress and deaths²⁰	Copernicus and WMO	2026	context	heat

Table 6.7Official statistics and regional sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Population, age, economy¹²³	World Bank	2026	supports	profile
Emissions, land, water⁵⁸⁹	World Bank	2026	supports	climate, water
Cereals, air quality, health¹⁰¹¹¹²	World Bank	2026	supports	food, health
Economic outlook⁴	IMF	2026	context	finance
Population estimates²⁸³³	Rosstat and TurkStat, as reported	2025	context	profile

Table 6.8Industry, grid and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Electricity data⁶	Ember	2026	supports	power mix
Gas deliveries²⁹	Turkish regulator, as reported	2025	context	gas link
Reservoir levels²⁶	Istanbul water administration, as reported	2025	context	urban water
Climate policy pages²³²⁴	Climate Action Tracker	2025	context	targets
Earthquake damage³⁰	World Bank	2023	supports	hazard loss

Where the evidence agrees

Heat, drought and fire records are rising across the region¹⁴¹⁵¹⁸
Compound and sequential hazards load services together⁴⁷
Both members depend on gas, in opposite positions⁷²⁹

Where it is unsettled

How far national inventory totals differ from international series⁵³⁴⁴⁰
How large the Russian land-use sink is²³⁴⁰
How many heat deaths occur in each member²⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31POST-CLOSE, context only: United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, Helsinki, 17 March 1992 (status of ratification as at 3 November 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Paris Agreement (2015), taken from memory. United Nations, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, taken from memory. UNDRR, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, taken from memory. CBD, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest, 1992), taken from memory; the Commission web address returned unrelated content and was not used. Black Sea Commission. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux, 1936), taken from memory. League of Nations Treaty Series. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (ed.), Climate Law (İklim Kanunu), adopted 2 July 2025 (date taken from a search-result summary; the text was not read). Official Gazette, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation (country assessment page: 2035 target, net zero target, land-use sink and renewable target). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye (country assessment page: net zero target, emissions trading system, electricity and renewable targets). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (press release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025), Paro, 17 June 2026. WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change, 2018, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48UNVERIFIED, not opened: M. Rantanen et al., The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979, Communications Earth & Environment, 2022, taken from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
49UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. McElwee et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health (nexus assessment), IPBES, 2024, taken from memory. IPBES secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2024 (publication page and key messages, 23 June 2025). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Precipitation. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Soil moisture. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section River flow and flooding. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Wildfires. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, Key events overview. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, population ages 0-14 and 65 and above, and urban population, as a share of the total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP (current US$) and GDP per capita (current US$) (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, annual freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources, and withdrawals by agriculture, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, forest area, agricultural land, and terrestrial protected areas as a share of land area, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, cereal production (metric tons) and cereal yield (AG.PRD.CREL.MT, AG.YLD.CREL.KG), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, life expectancy at birth, under-5 mortality rate and current health expenditure as a share of GDP, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, general government gross debt, current account balance and unemployment (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, values as served on 2026-11-03; years after 2025 are IMF projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28TASS (ed.), Russian population stands at 146 mln as of January 1, 2025 (news report of the preliminary estimate of the Federal State Statistics Service, Rosstat, 31 January 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Address Based Population Registration System Results 2025 (bulletin of 9 February 2026; the page returned an error and the figure 86,092,168 was taken from a search-result summary). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26Daily Sabah (ed.), Istanbul dam levels drop below 20% amid worsening drought (news report on figures of the Istanbul Water and Sewerage Administration, 21 November 2025). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emission Statistics 1990-2022 (558.3 Mt CO2e for 2022 taken from a search-result summary; the 1990-2024 bulletin returned no content). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Russian Federation (ed.), National Inventory Report 2025 submission to the UNFCCC (land-use sink values as relayed by the Climate Action Tracker; the report itself was not read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 6: Readings from the other desks. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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