Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

15 min read0 figures13 tables23 notesNR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE

Contents

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Türkiye’s share of combined emissions excluding land use, 2024	579.51 ÷ (579.51 + 2,575.65)	18.4%
(2)	Russia’s share of combined emissions excluding land use, 2024	2,575.65 ÷ (579.51 + 2,575.65)	81.6%
(3)	Emissions per person, 2024 (Türkiye · Russia)	579.51 ÷ 85.88 · 2,575.65 ÷ 143.51	6.7 · 17.9 t CO₂e
(4)	Change in Turkish hydropower, 2024 to 2025	(57.27 − 74.57) ÷ 74.57	−23.2%
(5)	Change in Turkish cereal output, 2023 to 2024	(39.02 − 42.19) ÷ 42.19	−7.5%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID: MDL-EUA-REGIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Eurasia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

11strong

documented within one season

5moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-REG-EUA-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 51 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-REG-EUA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 regional annual
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Regional System Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population, World Bank	2025	Oct 2026 update	annual	annual
Rosstat population estimate	1 Jan 2025	Jan 2025	annual	annual
Greenhouse gases, World Bank	2024	Oct 2026 update	annual	annual
Electricity, Ember	2025	2026 release	annual	annual
European State of the Climate	2025	Apr 2026	annual	annual
State of the Climate in Asia	2025	Jun 2026	annual	annual
Istanbul reservoirs	21 Nov 2025	Nov 2025	daily	daily
Freshwater series, World Bank	2022	Oct 2026 update	annual	annual
Earthquake damage	2023	Feb 2023	one-off	not repeated

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate and hazards	PARTIAL	heat deaths; Russian fire area
Energy	PARTIAL	gas flows by route; Akkuyu status
Water	PARTIAL	basin series; Black Sea quality
Food	THIN	cereal output for 2025; food access
Health	THIN	heat mortality
Biodiversity	THIN	habitat condition
Finance	THIN	insured and uninsured losses
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Heat-related deaths, Türkiye and the Russian Federation, 2024 and 2025	national health ministries, statistics offices and heat-mortality studies	not found at evidence close; the Europe-wide estimate in²⁰ does not split by member
Wildfire burnt area in Russia for the full year 2025	Federal Forestry Agency and the aerial forest protection service, Roshydromet	only a partial-year figure in a search-result summary³⁶; the page was not opened
Wildfire burnt area in Türkiye for 2025 on a satellite basis	EFFIS burnt area statistics³⁹ and the General Directorate of Forestry	the portal loaded without data; the 80,000 hectares in²⁷ is a partial-year expert tally
Türkiye national greenhouse gas total for 2024 on the inventory basis	TurkStat greenhouse gas bulletin³⁴	the 1990 to 2024 bulletin returned no content; only a 2022 value was seen in a summary
Russia national inventory total and land-use sink for the 2025 submission	Russian national inventory report to the UNFCCC⁴⁰	not read; the Climate Action Tracker page questions the size and revision of the sink²³
Türkiye’s 2035 emissions level in absolute terms	Türkiye’s nationally determined contribution to the UNFCCC and the ICAP summary³⁷	the Climate Action Tracker page gives the target only against a business-as-usual path²⁴; one summary gave 643 Mt CO₂e and was not opened
Cereal output for 2025, Türkiye and Russia	TurkStat crop production and Rosstat grain harvest³⁸	preliminary and revised Russian totals disagree across reports (139.4 to 144.6 million tonnes); no Turkish release was read
Russia’s share of Türkiye’s natural gas imports, full year 2025	Turkish energy regulator annual market report	the report was not read; the report in²⁹ gives a half-year volume and no share
Death toll of the February 2023 earthquakes in Türkiye	national disaster and emergency management authority	the World Bank release in³⁰ gives damage and displacement but no toll
Insured and uninsured losses of the 2023 earthquakes	Turkish catastrophe insurance pool and reinsurers	not retrieved
Black Sea water quality, fish stocks and shipping through the Turkish Straits	the Black Sea convention secretariat⁴² and the Turkish maritime administration	the secretariat address returned unrelated content; no traffic series was retrieved
Permafrost thaw extent and exposed infrastructure in Russia	Roshydromet and Arctic assessment programmes	not retrieved
Annual mean temperature anomaly of each member for 2025 from its own weather service	General Directorate of Meteorology and Roshydromet³⁵	the Russian report file could not be read; no Turkish annual climate report was found
Status and generation of the Akkuyu nuclear plant	IAEA Power Reactor Information System	the system redirected and returned no data; Ember records no nuclear generation in Türkiye in 2025⁶
Capability rungs: early warning, reserves, response, recovery, social protection, infrastructure, workforce	civil protection agencies, weather services, utilities and ministries	not reviewed by evidence close

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Issued by the World Bank. Annual. Role: binds the population, emissions, energy, land, water, cereal, air quality and health figures. Series are harmonised and may differ from national releases.

EVD-EUA-001

World Development Indicators¹ to³⁵⁷ to¹³

Issued by the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization. Annual. Role: binds the 2025 forcing findings. Coverage of Russia and Türkiye varies by section.

EVD-EUA-002

European State of the Climate 2025¹⁴ to²⁰

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-EUA-001	EVD-EUA-002
Completeness	both members in the World Bank series; the European assessment names Türkiye and western Russia in parts	Türkiye and part of Russia
Timeliness	about 12 months after the reference year	about 4 months after the reference year
Revision	harmonised series may be revised	annual cycle
Method transparency	published methodology	published methodology
External validation	not assessed in this edition	not assessed in this edition

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

National inventories³⁴⁴⁰ : land-use treatment on one basis
Regulator gas data²⁹ : flows by route and share of imports
Ministry and agency series : heat deaths, fires and reservoirs
Reports Foundational Edition⁵⁰ and the global baseline³² : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
AR5	IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
bcm	billion cubic metres
C3S	Copernicus Climate Change Service
CBD	Convention on Biological Diversity
ECMWF	European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
IMF	International Monetary Fund
LULUCF	land use, land-use change and forestry
PM2.5	fine particles of 2.5 micrometres or less
Rosstat	Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation
Roshydromet	Russian hydrometeorological service
TurkStat	Turkish Statistical Institute
UNECE	United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNFCCC	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WDI	World Development Indicators
WMO	World Meteorological Organization

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the regional indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-EUA-DRY-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Member-country notes	atlas cards for every member country	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct: annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry
Unit: Mt CO₂e, AR5 global warming potentials
Scope: calendar year
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators⁵
Revision: revised by the issuer; not tracked here
Known limits: differs from national inventories, which include land use and use their own methods³⁴⁴⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

20Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Thermal stress. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), Russia sees milder wildfire season so far in 2025 but experts warn against complacency (official January to August burnt area of 4.5 million hectares taken from a search-result summary). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) (ed.), burnt area statistics for Türkiye, 2025 (about 49,652 hectares by early July, taken from a search-result summary; the portal loaded without data). Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27Daily Sabah (ed.), 2025 forest fires reach second-highest burned area in Türkiye (news report of 8 October 2025 citing a forestry academic at Istanbul University-Cerrahpaşa, with Anadolu Agency). Daily Sabah, Istanbul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat, TÜİK) (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Emission Statistics 1990-2022 (558.3 Mt CO2e for 2022 taken from a search-result summary; the 1990-2024 bulletin returned no content). TurkStat, Ankara. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Russian Federation (ed.), National Inventory Report 2025 submission to the UNFCCC (land-use sink values as relayed by the Climate Action Tracker; the report itself was not read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Russian Federation (country assessment page: 2035 target, net zero target, land-use sink and renewable target). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Carbon Action Partnership (ed.), Türkiye emissions trading system and second nationally determined contribution (2035 level of 643 Mt CO2e taken from a search-result summary). ICAP, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Türkiye (country assessment page: net zero target, emissions trading system, electricity and renewable targets). Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) (ed.), grain and legume harvest 2025 (preliminary and revised totals reported by several outlets, 139.4 to 144.6 million tonnes, which disagree; taken from search-result summaries). Rosstat, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29TASS (ed.), Russia increases pipeline gas supplies to Turkey by 28% in 1H 2025 (news report compiled from Turkish energy regulator data, 28 August 2025). TASS, Moscow. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30World Bank (ed.), Earthquake damage in Türkiye estimated to exceed $34 billion: World Bank disaster assessment report (press release of 27 February 2023 on the Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea Against Pollution (Bucharest, 1992), taken from memory; the Commission web address returned unrelated content and was not used. Black Sea Commission. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moscow Times (ed.), 2025 was Russia’s second warmest year on record (report on the annual climate report of the Russian hydrometeorological service, Roshydromet; anomaly of 1.24 °C taken from a search-result summary; the file could not be read). Moscow Times. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Ember (ed.), Yearly electricity data, generation by source, capacity and emissions intensity (Türkiye and Russia), release file of generation outputs. Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL, Population, total (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API, update of 8 October 2026. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP (current US$) and GDP per capita (current US$) (Türkiye and Russian Federation), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, total greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide and methane emissions excluding LULUCF (Mt CO2e, AR5 basis; EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5, EN.GHG.CH4.MT.CE.AR5), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, net energy imports as a share of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS) and energy use per capita (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, employment in agriculture, agriculture value added as a share of GDP, and Gini index, data API. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025, section Temperature. C3S/ECMWF, Reading, 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026-2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base by the generator; not read in this drafting step). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex A: Methodology. In Eurasia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Eurasia’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-EUA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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