Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.
- Relatórios
- Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
- Edição de referência 2026
Relatório 2026 sobre Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas do Reino Unido
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. The first annual edition of the United Kingdom report. It fixes the 2026 reference state, the model, the voice and the positions against which every quarterly edition from Q1 2027 will be measured.
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Escritório
- GCRI Systems Evidence
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Collection
- United Kingdom 2026
- Fecho das evidências
- 30 September 2026
- Situação
- Draft in stewardship review; not yet released
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
United Kingdom 2026
The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems
01 · Status
Status and boundaries.
This edition governs nothing and confers no certification. It records where the evidence stood at the 2026 baseline. Every value resolves to its source or to its stated method; where neither exists, the edition says so instead of filling the gap.
- Publication ID
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Series alias
- NR-NAT-GBR-2026-BL
- Family · class
- País sistemas Risk & Resilience · Baseline Edition (inaugural annual)
- Lifecycle state
- ◌ DRAFT, review copy before stewardship review
- Publication date
- October 2026
- Fecho das evidências
- 30 September 2026 · cut NQ-GBR-2026-Q0-1
- Reprodutibilidade
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Access class
- PUBLIC-SAFE DERIVATIVE
- Análise
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Designed for
- strategic planning · risk screening · resilience assessment · portfolio discussion · research · public communication
- Não serve para
- government assessment · official warning · rating · certification · investment advice · underwriting · procurement · operational authorisation
- Registro
- record NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE · current-version pointer at release
- Correções
- registry correction pathway · history in Annex C
- Uso de IA
- disclosed in Annex C
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0 · Q1 2027
- Licença
- text CC BY 4.0 · data on the terms of each source
- Desk identifier
- NR-GCRI-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Collection
- NR-COL-2026-BASELINE · NR-COL-2026-BASELINE-GBR
02 · Key messages
What the edition finds.
Five of the questions the edition answers, each with its status. The executive summary has all of them, with their sources.
373 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 53% below 1990.
Where do emissions stand?Declarado
2022 was the first year above 10 °C; 40.3 °C was recorded in July 2022.
Is the climate already changing?Declarado
Older people and those with chronic illness; about 2,985 heat-associated deaths in England in 2022.
Who is most exposed to heat?Declarado
About 6.3 million properties in England, potentially 8 million by 2050.
How large is flood exposure?Declarado
England faces a shortfall of nearly 5 billion litres a day by 2055 without action.
Is water supply secure?Cenário
03 · Contents
Eight chapters and three annexes.
- ·
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
- 1
Chapter 1. Britain’s risk is coupled, not cumulative
Part I describes sistemas and their couplings.
- 2
Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked.
- 3
- 4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank.
- 5
Chapter 5. Hot, dry summer in southern England
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
- 6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole.
- 7
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda.
- 8
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
- A
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
- B
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
- C
Annex C. References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
List of figures (4)
List of tables (42)
- 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
- 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
- 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
- 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
- 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
- 6.1Q1 2027 readiness pack
- 6.2Standards and regulatory watch
- 6.3Assessments and peer-reviewed science
- 6.4Institutional reports
- 6.5Official statistics and agency data
- 6.6Energy, nature and industry
- 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
- 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
- 7.3Handoffs and routing
- 7.4Routing rules by publication class
- 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
- 7.6Signals at baseline
- 8.1State at baseline
- 8.2State at baseline
- 8.3State at baseline
- 8.4State at baseline
- 8.5State at baseline
- A.1Métodos
- A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
- A.3Status grammar
- A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
- A.5Evidence age and coverage
- A.6Coverage by system at baseline
- A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
- A.8Publication acceptance record
- A.9The status every value carries
- A.10Series terms
- A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
- A.12Technical annex
- B.1Baseline indicator set
- B.2Baseline indicator set
- B.3National source register
- B.4Regional reading, the four nations and English regions
- B.5United Kingdom system card
- B.6Licences of each kind of material
- B.7This edition in every format
- C.1Release path for this version
04 · GCRI reading
How GCRI reads this edition.
The evidence supports a coupled reading of British risk. Heat, flooding and water escassez are already recorded, not projected; electrification makes the grid central; and food and nature carry slower exposures. Evidence is strongest for emissions and flood exposure, weakest for lifeline interdependence.
CLI-001 · WAT-006 · INF-010 · SYS-012
05 · Publication record
Version, dates and contributors.
The identity of this edition as its title pages record it. A review copy has no DOI; the DOI is issued at deposit.
- Publication ID
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0- Versão
- 1.0.0, review copy
- Edition date
- Fecho das evidências
- Situação
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Licence of the text
- CC BY 4.0
- DOI
- Issued at deposit, on release
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Contributors
| Função | Contribuição | By |
|---|---|---|
| Conceptualisation | Series architecture and the United Kingdom system model | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
| Metodologia | Baseline method, dependency scoring and status grammar | Relatórios editorial team, GCRI |
| Investigation · data curation | Source review of national and international releases to evidence close | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Writing, original draft | All chapters; AI-assisted drafting, disclosed below | Editor · editorial team |
| Writing, review and editing | Five review passes before release | Steward reviewers (scheduled) |
| Visualisation | Pages, figures and tables in the Nexus design standard | Reports editorial team, GCRI |
| Supervisão | Edition governance, registry record and deposit | S. Valadbaygi (ed.) |
Revisão antes da divulgação
| Aprovado | Escopo | By | Situação |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scientific and technical | GCRI · key T | Agendado |
| 2 | Reproducibility of analytical values | GCRI · key T | Agendado |
| 3 | Public meaning and claims | The Global Risks Forum (GRF) · key M | Agendado |
| 4 | Finance-readiness boundary | The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · key F | Agendado |
| 5 | Country context and safeguards | National pathway · key N | Agendado |
AI assistance was used for drafting, consistency checks and page composition. Every number, citation and status label was checked against its source by the editorial team before freeze. No AI system is recorded as an author or a reviewer, and no AI output is printed as fact without a source.
06 · Downloads
Read it in print, take the data.
Draft, not yet releasedReview copies of a draft in stewardship review. The released edition carries its DOI and replaces them.
Imprimir
PDF, A4
The designed print edition, A4: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF96 pages785 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
bfa03982b0bc66e17245ddb7b3ecd02e69ab0ef3434eb6ba24284b59a7575b1aPDF, US Letter
The designed print edition, US Letter: cover, imprint and licence, how to cite, contents with page numbers, every chapter, figure, table and annex.
PDF104 pages796 KBTagged, with bookmarks
SHA-256
9d0ab1240d96660d02e453970e8cdff103bab916e870f616af91ac847b173700
Web edition
Complete edition, one page
Every chapter and annex at one address, with running heads when printed from the browser
HTML
Edition home
Key messages, contents, citation and the readings of each desk
HTML
Data bundle
Indicators, CSV
16 indicators with unit, year, status and source
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv1 KB
SHA-256
db5359cdf7ec1dc879118fd08afc53943bf0aa4c3b0f2aa42245f471193d7daaIndicators, JSON
The same indicators with the edition’s identity and licence
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json2 KB
SHA-256
a071c110d675b1cb1f725526b38e80c5544896398b69769107deaea7b940f1faFindings, CSV
12 findings with status, evidence-quality level and references
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE-findings.csv2 KB
SHA-256
7f65cb9f1104a7893088607b4e5fc2e01628dffc67049551cf81e5457be812fa
Citation files
Citation, BibTeX
For LaTeX and reference managers
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.bib1 KB
SHA-256
b55629fce99c956ec97f7483ad0bbb06fee1ab76984ffac1fc9b0bf476c46993Citation, RIS
For Zotero, EndNote and Mendeley
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.ris1 KB
SHA-256
75d5fc5e4d1caafe081ff6c65908f17be23c50d0c7ecca3abc9d265ebafbe69eCitation, CITATION.cff
Citation File Format 1.2.0, for GitHub, Zenodo and software catalogues
NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE.cff1 KB
SHA-256
80f398569acbb71816e364d9e21264230f46dadfd39f50cc93b9f99e2d21856d
Check a file with its SHA-256: shasum -a 256 <file> (macOS, Linux) or Get-FileHash <file> (Windows). Text, tables and figures by Nexus: CC BY 4.0; each source keeps its own licence.
07 · Cite
Cite this report.
Standards applied to NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE
Cite as
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
Applied
NS-1 catalogue identity (a UNI is allocated at deposit and resolves to this record), NS-2 citation and attribution, NS-3b dataset metadata, NS-5 figures and maps, NS-12 software and AI disclosure.
Monitoramento
Corrections are new versions with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.
An attestation is evidence, not a certificate. Nexus Standards parts are preparatory working drafts (2026).
APA 7
Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/
Chicago
Valadbaygi, Saeed, ed. United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Baseline Edition 2026. Nexus Reports NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. Draft under review. Toronto: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), 2026. https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/.
BibTeX
@techreport{NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE,
editor = {Valadbaygi, Saeed},
title = {{United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026}: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems},
institution = {The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)},
address = {Toronto},
year = {2026},
type = {Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026},
number = {NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE},
note = {Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit},
url = {https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/}
}RIS
TY - RPRT ED - Valadbaygi, Saeed TI - United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems T3 - Nexus Reports ET - Baseline Edition 2026 PY - 2026 PB - The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) CY - Toronto SN - NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE UR - https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gbr/ N1 - Draft under stewardship review; not yet released. DOI assigned at deposit. LA - en ER -
NR-CIT-1 (house style)
S. Valadbaygi (ed.), United Kingdom Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the United Kingdom’s Interdependent Systems. Nexus Reports, Baseline Edition 2026. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE. DOI at deposit.
08 · Related
In the same series, and across the Consortium.
- RelatóriosCAN
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
Canada 2026
The State of Canada’s Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosUSA
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
United States 2026
The State of the United States’ Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-USA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosFRA
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
France 2026
The State of France’s Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-FRA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosDEU
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
Germany 2026
The State of Germany’s Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-DEU-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosITA
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
Italy 2026
The State of Italy’s Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-ITA-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium - RelatóriosJPN
Risco e Resiliência dos Sistemas Nacionais
Japan 2026
The State of Japan’s Interdependent Systems
Edição de referência 2026NR-COUNTRY-JPN-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Send evidence or a correction on United Kingdom.
Reports is the Consortium’s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI sistemas Evidence do Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). O que você sabe sobre este tema pode se tornar evidência, um caso ou uma correção na próxima edição, com crédito para você e publicado sob CC BY 4.0 quando for obra sua. Se enviado à mesa errada, é encaminhado, não recusado.
- E-mailPortal GW-GCRIEnvie desta páginaEvidência, uma correção, um caso, um método, uma revisão, uma tradução ou uma contribuição ao perfil. Chega marcada com esta página, de modo que o editor responsável a receba.
- ZenodoDepósito abertoDeposite-o e envie à comunidadePublique seu próprio registro no Zenodo com seu ORCID iD e depois envie-o à comunidade Reports ali. Os curadores o revisam; o DOI continua sendo seu.
- RelatóriosGCRIVeja qual mesa recebe o que você temA tabela de encaminhamento abre a página de contribuição: o que você tem, a mesa que o recebe, como cada contribuição é revisada e creditada, e a licença.
Nunca envie dados pessoais, detalhes sensíveis de infraestrutura nem nada que você não tenha o direito de compartilhar. Uma contribuição é revisada antes do uso. Enviá-la não confere autoria nem direitos editoriais, e o patrocínio nunca compra uma constatação.
Reports · GCRI
Bring evidence to the next edition.
Every quarter closes on a sealed evidence cut. A correction, a source or a method received before the cut is reviewed for that edition.
- NR-COUNTRY-GBR-2026-BASELINE
- CC BY 4.0
- Evidence close 30 September 2026
CC BY 4.0 Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.
What you can do from this page.
- ReaderNew to the reports? A short guide to reading an edition.Comece aqui
- ContributorYour contributions to this edition and the reviews open on it are listed below the edition.Contribuir
- RevisorReview for this desk; verified reviews are credited.Tornar-se revisor
- Editor, steward or boardQueues, decisions and production are in the workspace.My workspace
This edition
Contributions and reviews on GBR
- Open contributions to this edition
- 0
- Reviews open on this edition
- 0
Open your account on this site to see your own contributions to this edition and any review invited from you.