GCRI · 量子技术
负责任的量子创新
Quantum technologies raise questions of security, equity, dual use and honesty about what they can do. Export controls restrict trade in some quantum items, a few countries and firms hold most capability, and inflated claims can misdirect public money. This page sets out the governance questions quantum innovation raises, how they are being addressed, and what evidence serves the governments, funders and researchers shaping it.
工作如何开展。
后量子迁移跟踪器
Responsible quantum innovation · Crypto inventory · Wave 4
移民
- 清单所有加密算法
- 确定优先次序数据寿命
- 选择标准算法
- 混合部署经典算法与后量子密码
- 检验互操作性
- 切换退役
按优先级排列的系统
| 存档签名 | RSA-2048 | 18 | ML-DSA 混合 | 试点 |
| VPN 网关 | ECDH | 10 | ML-KEM 混合方案 | 已计划 |
| 支付 HSM | RSA-3072 | 9 | 供应商路线图 | 已阻止 |
| Web TLS | ECDHE | 2 | 混合密钥交换 | 已完成 |
进度
图Post-quantum migration tracker: example names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Responsible quantum innovation: how the risk develops.
Dual-use, equity and uncertainty. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Dual use is built in
Quantum computing threatens current cryptography and quantum sensing has military uses, so the same research serves civilian and security ends.
Export controls restrict diffusion
Several countries control exports of specified quantum computers, components and software, affecting collaboration and markets.
Capability is concentrated
Most investment, patents and expertise sit in a few countries and firms, raising concerns about an emerging quantum divide.
Hype misleads decisions
Overstated claims of near-term advantage can distort funding, procurement and security planning. Claims discipline is part of responsible innovation.
How responsible quantum innovation is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in responsible quantum innovation: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Responsible quantum innovation anticipates effects across domains.
- 卫生耦合Cryptanalysis risk affects privacy across sectors.What to watchMigration equity between large and small institutions
- 能源耦合Critical infrastructure needs coordinated migration.What to watchSector migration timelines
- 生物多样性耦合Environmental footprints of new facilities need assessment.What to watchFootprint disclosure
Governance studies are designed for the 前瞻展望系列. The OECD and standards bodies such as ISO/IEC JTC 3 frame emerging governance.
- Governance frameworks under discussion.
- Stakeholder perspectives with consent.
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countries with national quantum strategies | 计数 | 年度 | Government strategy documents | 已发布统计 |
| Export control measures on quantum items | 计数 | 每次变更 | Government notices | 已发布统计 |
| Share of quantum patents by country | percent | 年度 | Patent databases | 观测 |
| International research collaborations in quantum | count of co-authored papers by country pair | 年度 | Bibliometric data | 观测 |
| Responsible innovation frameworks adopted | 计数 | 每次评估 | Programme documentation | 已声明 |
| Public engagement activities on quantum | 计数 | 年度 | Programme reports | 已报告 |
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| Government export control lists and notices | Controls on quantum items | Public records, licence per government |
| OECD and UNESCO work on quantum and society | Policy and ethics perspectives | Public, terms per organisation |
| NIST post-quantum cryptography standards (FIPS 203, 204 and 205) | Approved algorithms for migrating cryptography before quantum attacks | US government work, public domain |
| Bibliometric databases such as OpenAlex | Collaboration and publication patterns | 开放，CC0 |
| Patent databases | Geographic distribution of patenting | Free access, terms per office |
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Quantum Technologies prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| 政府 | How to balance security controls with open science and collaboration | Governance reviews; export control evidence |
| 研究资助方 | How to assess quantum claims and fund responsibly | Claims assessment guides |
| International organisations | How to support access for countries with little capability | Concentration analyses |
该主题产生的产出
- Governance landscape reviews for quantum
- Analyses of capability concentration
- Claims assessment guides for funders and buyers
- Evidence notes on export control effects on research
专家提出的问题。
Responsible innovation questions are asked before capabilities arrive.
- Which quantum capabilities have military or surveillance uses, and how should research and trade be governed?
- Who will have access to quantum technology and its benefits, and who could be left exposed?
- How should uncertain timelines be communicated without hype or complacency?
- How can countries without quantum industries protect their 系统 during the cryptographic transition?
- What environmental and resource costs do quantum systems carry?
机制与驱动因素。
Dual use is intrinsic: the same computers, sensors and communication 系统 serve civilian and security purposes, and the cryptographic threat has obvious intelligence value. Governments respond with export controls and research security measures, which can also slow open science and international collaboration.
Equity risks arise because capability is concentrated. Countries and organisations with fewer resources may be last to migrate their cryptography and least able to benefit from applications. Hype is itself a risk: inflated expectations misdirect resources and erode trust when they are not met, while dismissiveness can delay necessary security work. Responsible practice therefore pairs every claim with its evidence base and its uncertainty, and invites independent specialists to test it.
如何研究，以及方法止于何处。
| 方法或数据 | 显示内容 | 局限 |
|---|---|---|
| Technology assessment and foresight | Plausible developments and their implications | Foresight is not prediction |
| Ethical, legal and social analysis | Rights, fairness and accountability questions | Normative judgements differ across societies |
| Stakeholder and public engagement | Concerns and values of those affected | Engagement can be shallow or unrepresentative |
| Life-cycle assessment | Energy and material footprint | Data on emerging 系统 is limited |
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
Why is quantum technology dual use?
What is the quantum divide?
How can quantum claims be assessed?
Why is hype a risk?
Should quantum research be restricted?
How can less-resourced countries prepare?
从本页贡献证据。
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