The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Many countries import much of their staple food, fertiliser or fuel. Supply shocks, export restrictions and price spikes in a few exporters reach importers through prices and availability, hitting poor households and import-dependent states hardest. This page sets out how food and energy trade transmits shocks, how import dependence is measured, and what evidence serves the ministries and agencies that manage supply.
Food and energy trade · Corridor A · Week 23
red: disrupted
by critical input
| Fertiliser | Strait | 13 | 3 | Short |
| Fuel | Strait | 3 | 6 | Covered |
| Semiconductors | Port hub | 15 | 15 | Short |
| Grain | Corridor A | 5 | 8 | Covered |
Fig.Corridor and chokepoint monitor. Design wireframe with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.
Food and energy import dependence is the reliance of a country on imported staple food, fertiliser or fuel. Because exports are concentrated in few countries, shocks and export restrictions there reach importers through prices and availability, hitting poor households and import-dependent states hardest.
For food and energy trade, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with a past-year temperature and sunshine chart at the centre and true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
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NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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For food and energy trade, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on night lights, population density and true-colour imagery with a past-year temperature and sunshine chart at the centre and true colour from NASA GIBS, framed on the Strait of Malacca; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
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Commodity security and import dependencies. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
A few countries supply most traded wheat, maize, rice, vegetable oils and fertilisers, and a few supply most traded oil and gas. A shock in one exporter affects many importers.
When prices rise, exporters may restrict sales to protect domestic supply. Each restriction tightens the world market and can trigger others.
Natural gas is the main input to nitrogen fertiliser, and fuel drives farming and transport. Energy price shocks pass into food prices with a lag.
Higher prices and weaker currencies raise import bills for food and fuel. Countries with limited reserves may cut imports or subsidies, passing shocks to households.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Cereal import dependency ratio | The share of a country's cereal supply that comes from imports, as defined by FAO. |
| Export restriction | A measure that bans, limits or taxes exports of a product. |
| Food balance sheet | An account of a country's food supply from production, trade and stocks to uses. |
Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.
| Indicator | Unit | Cadence | Source type | Label |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cereal import dependency ratio | percent of domestic supply imported | annual | FAO food balance data | ESTIMATED |
| Food import bill | share of merchandise exports | annual | Trade statistics | OFFICIAL |
| Net energy imports | percent of energy use | annual | Energy balances | OFFICIAL |
| Food and fertiliser export restrictions in force | count and share of traded calories | monthly | Export restriction trackers | REPORTED |
| International food price index | index points | monthly | FAO Food Price Index | OFFICIAL |
| Exporter concentration for staple imports | Herfindahl-Hirschman index | annual | Bilateral trade data | ESTIMATED |
The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.
Fig. 02Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.
Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.
| Source | What it gives | Licence class |
|---|---|---|
| FAOSTAT | Production, trade and food balances by country and commodity | Open, CC BY 4.0 |
| AMIS Market Monitor (FAO and partners) | Supply, demand and policy information for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans | Public, AMIS terms |
| IFPRI Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker | Export restrictions by country and product | Public, licence to check |
| IEA World Energy Balances | Energy supply, trade and use by country | Licence per product (to check) |
| JODI oil and gas data | Monthly oil and gas production, trade and stocks | Free, JODI terms |
Trade and Strategic Resources prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| Who decides | The question | Evidence this page serves |
|---|---|---|
| Ministries of agriculture, trade and energy | How to diversify suppliers and manage strategic reserves | Dependence profiles; concentration analyses |
| Ministries of finance and central banks | How to plan for import bill shocks | Import bill and price evidence |
| International organizations | How to coordinate responses to export restrictions | Restriction trackers and market monitors |
Global markets for staple grains and oilseeds are supplied by relatively few major exporters, and international trade in some staples is a small share of production, which makes world prices sensitive to shifts in export supply. When major exporters restrict sales to protect domestic consumers, world prices can rise sharply, and other exporters may follow, an effect documented in past food price crises.
Food and energy are tightly linked. Nitrogen fertiliser production uses natural gas as feedstock and energy; farming, processing and transport use fuel; and biofuel policies tie some crops to energy markets. An energy price shock therefore raises food production costs, with a lag.
Exposure is unequal. Households that spend a large share of income on food are hit hardest by price increases. Import-dependent countries with limited foreign exchange may struggle to pay for imports when prices rise and their currencies weaken at the same time.
Measures of import concentration by product and partner. Re-exports and informal trade can distort the picture.
Time-series models of how world prices pass to domestic markets using econometrics. Transmission varies with policy and market structure.
Estimates of production, consumption and stocks. Private and some public stock data are not published.
Testing combined shocks such as a harvest failure during an energy price spike. Scenarios illustrate, they do not forecast.
Food and energy trade data are revised often and differ between sources; analyses state which sources and vintages were used.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.