GCRI · Water Nexus
Reviewed models and scenarios
Model descriptions for Water Nexus are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
The order things happen in.
- 01QuestionNational, regional or institutional priority
- 02EvidenceSTEM foundation of the platform
- 03BuildFoundry
- 04OrganiseNexus ecosystem
- 05TestUniverse (independent site)
- 06PublishReports
- 07DecideCompetent authorities and institutions, through NXS-RLS (participants, agreements and handoffs)
- 08RenewCorrections and the next annual agenda
Released, referenced and rights-cleared.
- Time and space reference for every view.
- Sources and licence.
- Uncertainty and known limits.
- Version and date of release.
The kinds of model water risk work relies on.
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rainfall-runoff and land-surface | GR4J, HBV, VIC, LISFLOOD | Flow at decision points from weather inputs | Split-sample tests on gauged flows |
| Hydraulic inundation | LISFLOOD-FP, HEC-RAS | Depth and extent of flooding | Comparison with surveyed and satellite flood extents |
| Groundwater flow | MODFLOW | Aquifer response to pumping and recharge | Head observations, water balance closure |
| Water allocation and reservoir operation | WEAP and similar planning models | Who gets water under each rule in a drought | Reproduction of historical allocations |
| Global hydrological models | Models in the ISIMIP water sector | Large-scale scenarios under climate change | Multi-model spread, global discharge archives |
A model description lists its version, the basin it was set up for and its validation period. A model built for one basin is not reused for another without recalibration and a new validation.
How the process runs.
Process
Reviewed models and scenarios: Hazard, exposure, vulnerability
In IPCC AR6 Working Group II, climate risk results from interactions between hazards and a system’s exposure and vulnerability, and responses can add risk.
01 Drivers
- 01HazardDataset · Civil protectionThe potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may harm people, property, services or ecosystems.
- 02ExposureDataset · Civil protectionThe presence of people, livelihoods, species, ecosystems, infrastructure or assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.
- 03SensitivityDataset · Civil protectionThe degree to which a system or species is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate variability or change.
- 04Capacity to cope and adaptDataset · Civil protectionThe ability of systems, institutions, humans and other organisms to adjust to damage, take opportunities or respond to consequences.
02 Assessment
- 05Risk from responsesComponent · Civil protectionRisks from climate responses arise when responses miss their objectives, or from trade-offs or negative side effects.
- 06VulnerabilityComponent · Civil protectionThe propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. It includes sensitivity to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
- 07RiskModel · Water NexusRisk results from dynamic interactions between hazards and the system’s exposure and vulnerability. Each may be uncertain and change.
03 Response
- 08Risk management and responseStep · Civil protectionRisk management is plans, actions, strategies or policies that reduce the likelihood or size of adverse consequences.
- 09Residual riskRecord · Civil protectionThe climate impact risk that remains after adaptation and mitigation efforts. Adaptation can redistribute risk between areas and groups.
04 Decision
- 10Decision by the responsible partyDecision · Civil protectionThe framing names no single decision maker. Decisions on responses rest with the responsible party under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval.
Releases appear as they are reviewed.
Analysis runs in Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Where this page’s references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
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