GCRI · 城市与建成环境
市政治理接口
City governments plan land, issue permits, run or regulate services and lead local emergency response, yet their powers, revenues and data are often set by national governments. Whether a city can reduce risk depends on that division of responsibility. This page sets out how municipal governance shapes urban risk, how its capacity is assessed, and what evidence serves mayors, councils and national ministries that share the work.
Municipal governance interface in seven parts.
Municipal governance interface: how the risk develops.
Policy questions and planning authority. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Mandates without means
Cities are often responsible for planning, drainage and local services but depend on national transfers and limited own revenue. Unfunded mandates leave 风险 undone.
Boundaries split the urban area
A metropolitan area may span many municipalities, each planning separately. Floods, transport and housing markets cross those boundaries.
Data are missing at city scale
National statistics rarely break down to neighbourhoods, and cities often lack cadastres, asset registers and hazard maps. Decisions are made without local evidence.
Participation builds legitimacy
Plans developed with residents, including informal residents, are more likely to be implemented and to reflect local knowledge of risk.
People and hazards in India.
Population density, night lights and flood water over India, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
交互式地图需要JavaScript；图层列表和来源见下文。
图层 3
本页面的人口与危害
关于本图层
- 证据
- 估计值
- 来源
- 世界网格化人口 v4.11（NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN））
- 提供方
- NASA SEDAC（哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN）
- 许可协议
- CC BY 4.0
- 年份版本
- null；基于人口普查的估算，静态（2020）
- 处理结果
- 约 1 公里网格
- 不确定性
- 基于人口普查的 2020 年每平方公里人口估算，作为风险暴露背景展示；不是受任何危害影响的人数。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2）（NASA LAADS DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LAADS DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星辐射亮度，已校正月光和大气影响
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-12
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示日期的卫星夜间辐射亮度；灯光是用电和停电的替代指标，并非对供应或获得电力情况的测量。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层造成缺口）
- 来源
- VIIRS 全球洪水产品（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星探测；云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星探测；云层造成缺口。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测
- 来源
- VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星图像
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-14
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 卫星图像。卫星或模型栅格数据，按提供方发布的原样呈现。云层、条带缺口和反演误差会造成缺口和噪声；数值是指标，而非某地的测量值。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 模型生成（GIBS 发布的最新年份）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1）（NASA LP DAAC）
- 提供方
- NASA LP DAAC
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每年；卫星分类；GIBS 发布的最新年份
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2024-01-01
- 处理结果
- 约 500 米网格
- 不确定性
- 所示年份的卫星土地覆盖类别，含农田；该分类存在已知误差，并非农场登记册。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
关于本图层
- 证据
- 观测（云层造成缺口）
- 来源
- MODIS Terra EVI（NASA LANCE）
- 提供方
- NASA LANCE
- 许可协议
- NASA 开放数据
- 年份版本
- 每日；卫星指数；云层造成缺口
- 构建时的最新内容
- 2026-10-13
- 处理结果
- 约 250 米网格
- 不确定性
- 截至所示日期 8 天的卫星植被指数，是栖息地状况指标；不衡量物种或生物多样性。
- 经由以下途径到达
- gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov，仅在您允许实时地图后访问
键盘操作，地图获得焦点时
按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动以缩放
最新可用
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap贡献者 (ODbL) · Natural Earth
正在加载最新的NASA影像。
拖动以移动。按住 Ctrl 或 ⌘ 并滚动、双指缩放或使用按钮缩放；悬停可查看指针下的数值；重置可返回该区域。
People and hazards, framed on India.NASA 发布的卫星和模型产品，各带自己的日期。它们是指标，而非对任何地点的评估。
数据：NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap 贡献者 · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT来源与许可
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA 开放数据
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 采用 CC BY 4.0 许可。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- VIIRS Black Marble 夜间灯光，NASA 戈达德航天中心；由 NASA Level-1 与大气档案和分发系统（LAADS DAAC）分发；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- VIIRS 近实时产品（洪水、地表温度、积雪覆盖、校正反射率），NASA LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- MODIS 陆地产品（植被指数、总初级生产力、土地覆盖），NASA LP DAAC 和 LANCE；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- ASTER GDEM 是 METI 和 NASA 的产品（ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003，NASA LP DAAC）；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。引用格式：NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA 开放数据
- 使用 Natural Earth 制作。免费矢量和栅格地图数据，见 naturalearthdata.com。 公有领域
- © OpenStreetMap 贡献者（ODbL），经由 NASA GIBS（海岸线、边界、道路和地名）。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 ODbL
- Blue Marble，NASA Earth Observatory；影像来自 NASA GIBS。颜色依据已发布的色标重绘；显示处的数值已按六边形网格平均（经修改）。 NASA 开放数据
- 地球仪和平面地图上的背景信息：海岸线、边界、道路和地名来自 NASA GIBS 参考图层（OpenStreetMap 数据，ODbL，© OpenStreetMap contributors）；Blue Marble 影像可作为可选底图；3D 地形和高程读数来自 ASTER GDEM 高程色彩指数（5 m 至 200 m 分级，为便于辨识而作了夸张处理）。边界按已发布的样式绘制，不代表对任何领土的立场。
- 实时事件：NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker（EONET）；事件仅供参考，并保留其原始来源链接。
- 实时：NASA EONET。事件仅供参考，不是主管机构的预警。
- Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA’s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- 可选图层（图层列表中有 5 个来源：实时、预报、观测和背景）在打开时会在地图上和此处显示其提供方署名；预报为模型输出，派生指数为估计值。
图层与日期
- 人口密度，2020 年：人口：哥伦比亚大学 CIESIN，世界网格化人口 v4.11（2018），NASA SEDAC， CC BY 4.0 · 静态
- 夜间灯光，每日：VIIRS Black Marble（VNP46A2），NASA LAADS DAAC · 2026年10月12日
- 洪水水体，3 日合成：VIIRS 全球洪水产品，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月14日
- 真彩色：VIIRS NOAA-20 校正反射率，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
- 土地覆盖类型（IGBP），年度：MODIS Terra 和 Aqua 土地覆盖（MCD12Q1），NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- 增强型植被指数，滚动 8 天：MODIS Terra EVI，NASA LANCE · 2026年10月13日
Cities govern risks that national ministries split by sector.
Governance analyses are designed for the 国家系统风险与韧性系列. Making Cities Resilient 2030 and its Disaster Resilience Scorecard give cities a common self-assessment; city governments decide.
- Scorecard results cities choose to publish.
- Municipal plans with review dates.
带危害叠加的资产登记册。
团队跟踪该主题时会使用的界面：其指标、状态与决策。名称为示例，数值仅作示意。
带危害叠加的资产登记册
Municipal governance interface · Riverside ward · Flood 1-in-100 overlay
危害叠加图层
资产登记册上的洪水情景
河流洪水范围暴露资产
暴露资产
| H-01 | 诊所 | 0.4 |
| S-07 | 学校 | 0.2 |
| E-03 | 变电站 | 1.4 |
| W-02 | 泵站 | 0.5 |
适应方案
| 抬高变电站 E-03 | 1 | 中 | 服务连续性 | 设计 |
| 上游滞洪公园 | 13 | 高 | 高温，休闲 | 可行性 |
| 防洪诊所 H-01 | 1 | 低 | 卫生服务可及性 | 已获资助 |
衡量什么，以及衡量得如何。
每个指标都注明其单位、频率、背后的来源类型以及数值将附带的证据标签。此处不显示数值：数值由计划依据其自身权限提供。
| 指标 | 单位 | 节奏 | 来源类型 | 标签 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Own-source revenue | share of municipal revenue | 年度 | Municipal finance statistics | 已发布统计 |
| Capital spending per resident | local currency per person | 年度 | Municipal budgets | 已发布统计 |
| Cities with local disaster 风险 strategies | percent of cities | 年度 | 《仙台框架》 Monitor target E | 已发布统计 |
| Cadastre coverage | percent of parcels registered | 每次评估 | Land administration records | 已发布统计 |
| Plans adopted with public consultation | percent of plans | per planning cycle | Planning records | 已报告 |
| Metropolitan coordination bodies | presence and mandate | 每次评估 | Legal and institutional review | 已声明 |
存量、流量、延迟和一个临界阈值。
两个存量，即压力和 适应能力, joined by a reinforcing growth loop, a delayed balancing response and damage when pressure outruns capacity; past the threshold the system can tip. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows India; the model itself is not tied to a place.
控制措施
- 压力增长
- 每年 6.0%
- 能力在降低压力方面的效力
- 每年 4.0%
- 对感知压力的投资响应
- 20%
- 感知延迟
- 4.0 年
- 压力的临界阈值
- 60 项指数
- 越过阈值后的放大
- 2.0 倍
- 模拟年数
- 50 年
读数
- 峰值压力
- 113 指数
- 期末能力
- 186 指数
- 超过阈值的年数
- 15.8 年
数字、方法与来源
| 年份 | 压力 | 能力 | 感知 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 |
| 4 | 23.3 | 44.9 | 21.2 |
| 8 | 27.2 | 42.2 | 24.0 |
| 12 | 31.7 | 42.3 | 27.7 |
| 16 | 36.8 | 45.5 | 32.2 |
| 20 | 42.3 | 51.5 | 37.2 |
| 24 | 47.9 | 60.3 | 42.6 |
| 28 | 53.2 | 71.3 | 48.0 |
| 32 | 57.8 | 84.3 | 53.1 |
| 36 | 66.4 | 98.4 | 58.4 |
| 40 | 82.7 | 115.9 | 69.7 |
| 44 | 97.8 | 139.7 | 83.8 |
| 48 | 109.1 | 169.4 | 97.3 |
方法
- 系统动力学 Forrester (1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press; Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics
- 临界转变与临界点 Scheffer and others (2009), Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461
- 因果回路图 Sterman (2000), Business Dynamics, McGraw-Hill
- 不确定性扇形图（参数蒙特卡罗） Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333
- 单因素敏感性（龙卷风图） Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley
数据
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
贯穿六大支柱，由 Nexus Consortium 牵头
证据来自何处。
具名公共数据集与机构记录，各自注明许可类别。依协议获得的来源仅按其条款使用，绝不再次发布。
| 来源 | 它提供什么 | 许可类别 |
|---|---|---|
| OECD and UCLG World Observatory on Subnational Government Finance and Investment | Subnational government finance across countries | Public, terms to check |
| 《仙台框架》 Monitor target E | Local disaster 风险 strategies | 公开，联合国使用条款 |
| UNDRR Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities | City self-assessment of resilience across ten essentials | 公开，联合国使用条款 |
| Global Covenant of Mayors reporting | City climate risk assessments and action plans | Public, terms per platform (to check) |
| Municipal budget and planning documents | Revenues, spending and plans | Public records, licence per city |
Model municipal governance interface as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile 城市与建成环境: the hazards it names, the 系统 and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
灾害
- 冰塞洪水
- 地震
- 溃坝
- Aftershock sequence （在下游引发）
- Fault surface rupture (set off downstream)
- Soil liquefaction (set off downstream)
- Slope slide (set off downstream)
- Rockfall (set off downstream)
- Tsunami (set off downstream)
- Building collapse (set off downstream)
- 大范围停电（在下游引发）
- Water supply failure (set off downstream)
- 大规模流离失所（在下游引发）
- Disaster and conflict debris (set off downstream)
- 河流洪水（在下游引发）
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Turbidity current (set off downstream)
- Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock (set off downstream)
控制措施
NS-0章程与原则NS-3风险记录 UNI（语法、旧编码对照、分配机构）NS-5图表、地图和可视化标准（配合 UI/UX 套件）NS-9情境 UNI（部署、实例、计划实例）NS-10政策和条款（机器可读的义务：定义、约束、评估和执行）NS-11验证与监测（证据、证明、零信任符合性观测）NRS-X5城市与建成环境风险NRS-H91危害族：城市与建成存量压力（NHS-1 infra.urban）NRS-H113危害类别：金融体系脆弱性（NHS-1 soc.financial-system）NRS-K7领域包概况：城市（DOMAIN-007）NRS-H31危害类别：持久性和生物累积性物质（NHS-1 poll.persistent）NRS-H34危害类别：废物与残余物处置失效（NHS-1 poll.waste）
观测
- Global Human Settlement Layer (listed for reference)
- WorldPop gridded population (listed for reference)
- Overture Maps buildings theme (listed for reference)
- OpenStreetMap (listed for reference)
- World Development Indicators (listed for reference)
- Direct economic loss in relation to global GDP, damage to critical infrastructure and number of disruptions to basic services, attributed to disasters
- Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national strategies
- Proportion of urban population living in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing
- Percentage of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with national strategies
示例地理范围
- India: 65 hexagonal cells
- 穿透云层的地表水，30 m（OPERA DSWx-S1 雷达），NASA GIBS
- 过去半小时降雨率（IMERG），NASA GIBS
- 今夜夜间灯光与停电（VIIRS 昼夜波段），NASA GIBS
- 地表土壤湿度（SMAP），NASA GIBS
由谁决定，以及证据服务于什么。
Cities and Built Environment prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 谁来决定 | 问题 | 本页面服务的证据 |
|---|---|---|
| Mayors and city councils | 哪些 风险 responsibilities to prioritise and fund | Capacity profiles; scorecard results |
| National ministries of local government and finance | How to align mandates, transfers and borrowing powers | Municipal finance evidence |
| Metropolitan authorities | How to coordinate planning across municipalities | Coordination reviews |
该主题产生的产出
- Municipal capacity profiles for 风险治理
- Metropolitan coordination reviews
- City data inventories showing evidence gaps
- Briefs on fiscal and legal arrangements for local risk reduction
How municipal governance interface is modelled, measured and tested.
模型、其假设、数据和不确定性，以科学家或工程师会核查的形式呈现。结构遵循已发表的方法。所取数值仅为示意，不是研究发现。
系统模型
The couplings between the systems in municipal governance interface: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
专家提出的问题。
- 01
Who holds which powers?
How planning, building control, utilities and emergency management are divided between local, regional and national government.
- 02
Can cities act on evidence?
Whether municipalities have the mandate, revenue, data and staff to use risk information.
- 03
How is evidence used?
How risk assessments enter plans, budgets and permits, and where they are ignored.
- 04
Who is heard?
How residents, especially in informal areas, take part in local decisions.
What drives the risk.
Fiscal capacity limits action. Many cities depend on transfers from national government and have little own-source revenue to invest in drainage, retrofits or enforcement. Metropolitan areas often span many municipalities, fragmenting authority over shared risks such as river flooding.
Enforcement gaps matter as much as rules. Building codes and zoning reduce risk only when they are applied, which requires inspectors, procedures and political support.
Evidence enters decisions through people and processes. Risk information that arrives in the wrong format, at the wrong time or without a responsible owner is rarely used.
Electoral cycles and long-lived risks pull in different directions. Drainage and retrofits pay off over decades, while their costs fall within a single term. Institutions that outlast terms, such as statutory plans, independent technical units and ring-fenced budgets, help evidence persist across changes of leadership.
证据如何收集，以及止于何处。
| 方法或数据 | 显示内容 | 其局限 |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional mapping | Who holds which powers | Formal powers differ from practice |
| Budget analysis | Spending on 风险 | Spending is often not tagged by purpose |
| 案例研究 | How evidence influenced decisions | Context-specific |
| Participatory processes | Resident priorities | Can be captured by organised interests |
Where this page’s references lead.
阅读本页时所对照的机构和文件。状态和版本会变化；每个链接都指向发布机构。
问题与解答。
Why do cities struggle to reduce risk?
What is own-source revenue?
What is the Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities?
Does GCRI advise municipalities on decisions?
Why does governance belong on a science platform?
Where is urban governance convened?
从本页贡献证据。
报告 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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