GCRI · 仕事とスキルの未来
自動化と雇用
Automation, robotics and AI take over some tasks, assist others and create new ones. Whether this displaces workers, raises productivity and wages or does both depends on the tasks involved, how firms deploy technology and how institutions support transitions. This page sets out how automation affects jobs, how exposure and impact are measured, and what evidence serves the policymakers, employers and unions responsible.
Automation and jobs on the record.
Automation and jobs: how the risk develops.
AI/robotics impact and job redesign. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.
Tasks, not whole jobs
Most occupations combine tasks that can be automated with tasks that cannot. Automation reshapes jobs more often than it eliminates them outright.
Displacement and reinstatement
Technology displaces labour from some tasks and creates new tasks that need people. Net effects depend on the balance between the two.
Productivity gains may not reach wages
If gains accrue mainly to capital owners, automation can raise output while wages stagnate for exposed workers.
Transitions are costly for individuals
Displaced workers often face long unemployment or lower pay in new jobs, especially older workers and those in declining regions.
How automation and jobs is modelled, measured and tested.
モデル、その仮定、データ、不確実性を、科学者やエンジニアが確認する形で示します。構造は公表された手法に従っています。描かれた値は例示であり、知見ではありません。
システム・モデル
The couplings between the systems in automation and jobs: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Automation exposure differs by domain.
Findings are designed for the Exponential Technology series. The ILO’s 2023 working paper estimates exposure, which is not job loss.
- Firm adoption data.
- Worker surveys.
何を、どの程度うまく測定しているか。
各指標には、その単位、更新頻度、背後にある出典の種類、値が持つことになるエビデンスのラベルが付いています。値は表示しません：プログラムが自らの権限のもとで値を提供します。
| 指標 | 単位 | 周期 | 出典の種類 | ラベル |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment in occupations with high automation exposure | percent of employment | 評価ごと | Task-based exposure studies | 推定 |
| Firms using AI or robots | percent of firms | per survey | Business surveys | 報告値 |
| Displaced worker re-employment rate | percent re-employed within a year | per survey | Displaced worker surveys | 報告値 |
| Wage change after displacement | percent | per survey | Linked employer-employee data | 推定 |
| Labour share of income | GDP 比（%） | 年次 | 国民経済計算 | 推定 |
| New job titles emerging | 件数 | 年次 | Occupational classification updates and job postings | 観測 |
エビデンスの出所。
名前の明示された公開データセットと機関の記録。それぞれにライセンス区分があります。合意に基づく出典は、その条件のもとでのみ使用し、再公開することはありません。
| 出典 | 提供するもの | ライセンス区分 |
|---|---|---|
| ILO global studies on generative AI exposure | Occupational exposure estimates by country and gender | Public, ILO terms |
| OECD studies on automation and AI in the labour market | Evidence on exposure and adoption | Public, OECD terms |
| US Bureau of Labor Statistics Displaced Worker Survey | Outcomes of displaced workers | Public domain, US government |
| O*NET occupational task database | Task content of occupations used in exposure studies | オープン、CC BY 4.0 |
| Eurostat enterprise AI and robot use statistics | Adoption by firms | Open, Eurostat reuse policy |
誰が決め、エビデンスが何に役立つか。
Future of Work and Skills prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.
| 誰が決定するか | 質問 | このページが提供するエビデンス |
|---|---|---|
| Labour ministries | Which workers and regions need transition support | Exposure profiles; displacement evidence |
| Employers and unions | How to introduce technology and share gains | Adoption and wage evidence |
| Training providers | Which skills to build for new tasks | Emerging task evidence |
このトピックが生み出す成果物
- Task-based exposure profiles by occupation and group
- Displacement and re-employment analyses
- Evaluation designs for transition programmes
- Evidence notes for social dialogue on technology
What researchers ask about automation.
- Which tasks can current AI and robots perform reliably and at acceptable cost?
- When does technology substitute for workers and when does it complement them?
- How are productivity gains shared between firms, workers and consumers?
- How can jobs be redesigned so people keep meaningful, skilled work?
Displacement, productivity and new work.
Automation has a displacement effect, as machines take over tasks, and a productivity effect, as lower costs raise demand and employment elsewhere. Historically, new tasks and occupations have also emerged, reinstating demand for labour. The balance between these forces determines the net effect on employment and wages.
Industrial robots mainly automate physical, repetitive tasks in manufacturing and logistics. Generative AI reaches cognitive tasks such as drafting, summarising and coding. Evidence from early workplace studies suggests AI assistance can raise productivity, sometimes most for less experienced workers, but effects vary widely by task and implementation. What employers choose to automate, and how, matters as much as technical capability.
Evidence on automation and its limits.
- 01
Task exposure measures
Matching technology capabilities to occupational task descriptions, informed by 人工知能と機械学習 and robotics and automation. Measures depend on judgements about capability that age quickly.
- 02
Robot adoption studies
Linking robot installations to local employment and wages with 計量経済学. Results differ between countries and periods.
- 03
Workplace experiments
Randomised or natural experiments in firms adopting AI, using 社会・行動科学. Short-run effects may not reflect long-run change.
- 04
Job redesign case studies
How organisations reorganise work around new tools. Case studies illustrate possibilities rather than averages.
どのように研究され、手法が言えないことは何か。
Where this page’s references lead.
このページの読解の基準となる機関と文書。状態と版は変わります。各リンクは発行機関へ移動します。
このページがコンソーシアム全体でどこへつながるか。
質問と回答。
Will automation cause mass unemployment?
What is task-based analysis?
Who is most exposed to automation?
Is automation exposure the same as job loss?
Does AI help or hurt less experienced workers?
Can job redesign prevent displacement?
Does the platform advise firms on automation?
このページからエビデンスを提供する。
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