The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Model descriptions for Society and Human Development are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
Reviewed models and scenarios · Workspace WS-02
| Household survey | v5.6 | To check | SURVEY |
| Displacement tracking | v3.9 | Open | REPORTED |
| Social registry | v6.5 | To check | OFFICIAL |
| School records | v3.6 | Open | REPORTED |
share used vs alert level
Society and Human Development · PipelinePipeline, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.
Society and Human Development reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the society and human development field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as social and behavioural science as well as causal inference and impact evaluation. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density, daytime surface heat and true-colour imagery, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
People and exposure, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
For reviewed models and scenarios, in GCRI's spatial-intelligence reading, the map opens on population density, daytime surface heat and true-colour imagery, framed on Latin America and the Caribbean; every other NASA layer, live feed and forecast waits in the layer list.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date; indicators, not assessments of any place; claim ceiling INTEGRATED.
Layers and dates
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small-area estimation | Survey and census models | Local poverty | Census validation |
| Displacement models | Agent-based and statistical models | Movement after shocks | Observed displacement |
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Model card | A short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits. |
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Surrogate model | A fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.