GCRI · Campaigns
Decision analysis under uncertainty structures the choices communicators and the authorities they serve must make: whether to speak before evidence settles, which audiences and channels to prioritise, and when to adapt or end a campaign. It makes trade-offs between reach, equity, cost and the risk of harm explicit and open to scrutiny.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In information and public trust and society and human development, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Early communication with stated uncertainty is weighed against waiting for better evidence, using value-of-information reasoning and the risks of silence, so the timing choice and its assumptions are on record.
Options are scored against reach, accessibility, equity, cost and risk of harm, with weights elicited from stakeholders, and the ranking is tested for sensitivity to those weights.
Decision points are set in advance with the evidence that would trigger adapting, continuing or ending a campaign, so later choices are not driven by sunk costs or favourable metrics alone.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Campaigns · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-2791
| مردم دسترسی‌یافته | Lognormal | people, stated | استنباط کارشناسی |
| Knowledge gain | عادی | score change, stated | استنباط کارشناسی |
| Consent records complete | Lognormal | of participants, stated | استنباط کارشناسی |
| Preparedness actions taken | Beta | of households, stated | استنباط کارشناسی |
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| داده | نقش | برچسب |
|---|---|---|
| Expert elicitation records | Judgements where data are thin | برآوردشده |
| Stakeholder preference surveys | Weights on criteria such as reach, equity and cost | گزارش‌شده |
| Pre-test and evaluation results | Evidence on how options perform | مشاهده‌شده |
| Budget and resource records | What each option requires | آمارهای منتشرشده |
هر عامل زمانی عمل می‌کند که به‌اندازهٔ کافی از مخاطبانش عمل کرده باشند؛ تغییرهای کوچک در آستانهٔ میانگین یا پیشگامان اولیه تعیین می‌کند که رفتار محلی بماند یا در سراسر جمعیت آبشاری شود. مدل آموزشی با مقادیر تصویری اعلام‌شده، نه پیش‌بینی.
کنترل‌ها
خوانش‌ها
| گام | سهم کسانی که اقدام کرده‌اند (٪) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 |
| 2 | 22.5 |
| 3 | 40.0 |
| 4 | 55.8 |
| 5 | 69.8 |
| 6 | 83.0 |
| 7 | 92.5 |
| 8 | 97.5 |
| 9 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
در شش رکن، به رهبری Nexus Consortium
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| بررسی | How it is done |
|---|---|
| تحلیل حساسیت | Weights and probabilities are varied to show which of them drive the choice |
| Explicit value judgements | Each criterion and weight is recorded with who set it and why |
| Robustness across scenarios | Options are tested against several plausible futures, not one expected case |
| Retrospective review | Decisions are compared with what followed, separating the quality of the judgement from the luck of the outcome |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
مدل، مفروضات، داده‌ها و عدم قطعیت آن، به شکلی که دانشمند یا مهندس بررسی می‌کند. ساختارها از روش‌های منتشرشده پیروی می‌کنند. مقادیر ترسیم‌شده تبیینی‌اند، نه یافته.
The couplings between the systems in decision analysis for risk communication: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
مدیریت ریسک سامانه‌ای stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
گزارش‌ها is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
هرگز داده شخصی، جزئیات حساس زیرساخت یا چیزی را که حق اشتراکش را ندارید نفرستید. هر مشارکت پیش از استفاده داوری می‌شود؛ ارسال آن حق مؤلفی یا ویرایشی نمی‌دهد و حمایت مالی هرگز یافته‌ای را نمی‌خرد.
اطلاعات و درخواست‌ها امروز باز است. هر درخواست یک شمارهٔ پیگیری می‌گیرد و گام بعدی را مشخص می‌کند؛ درخواست‌های عضویت، پرداخت‌ها، تخصیص رایانش و ثبت‌نام‌ها تنها زمانی باز می‌شوند که تیم، شرایط و ظرفیت داوری آن‌ها فراهم باشد.
نقشه‌ها، داده‌ها و ارقام این سایت برای زمینه و اطلاعات عمومی نشان داده می‌شوند. توصیه، پیش‌بینی یا هشدار نیستند؛ حدود این اطلاعات در سلب مسئولیت‌ها و اعلامیه‌های داده بیان شده است.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information. We run no advertising. You can review your choices at any time through Privacy choices at the foot of every page.