GCRI · Campaigns
Decision analysis under uncertainty structures the choices communicators and the authorities they serve must make: whether to speak before evidence settles, which audiences and channels to prioritise, and when to adapt or end a campaign. It makes trade-offs between reach, equity, cost and the risk of harm explicit and open to scrutiny.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In information and public trust and society and human development, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Early communication with stated uncertainty is weighed against waiting for better evidence, using value-of-information reasoning and the risks of silence, so the timing choice and its assumptions are on record.
Options are scored against reach, accessibility, equity, cost and risk of harm, with weights elicited from stakeholders, and the ranking is tested for sensitivity to those weights.
Decision points are set in advance with the evidence that would trigger adapting, continuing or ending a campaign, so later choices are not driven by sunk costs or favourable metrics alone.
Layar yang akan digunakan sebuah tim untuk mengikuti metode ini: ukuran, status, dan keputusannya. Nama adalah contoh dan nilai bersifat ilustratif.
Campaigns · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-2791
| Orang yang dijangkau | Lognormal | people, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Knowledge gain | Normal | score change, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Consent records complete | Lognormal | of participants, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
| Preparedness actions taken | Beta | of households, stated | Elisitasi pakar |
Set data dan catatan yang digunakan oleh analisis keputusan dalam ketidakpastian di platform ini, beserta peran masing-masing dan label yang dibawa nilainya. Sumber dicantumkan dalam register sumber.
| Data | Peran | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Elisitasi pakar catatan | Judgements where data are thin | ESTIMASI |
| Stakeholder preference surveys | Weights on criteria such as reach, equity and cost | DILAPORKAN |
| Pre-test and evaluation results | Evidence on how options perform | TERAMATI |
| Budget and resource records | What each option requires | Statistik terbitan |
Setiap agen bertindak begitu cukup banyak kontaknya yang bertindak; perubahan kecil pada ambang rata-rata atau pada pelopor awal menentukan apakah perilaku tetap lokal atau berantai ke seluruh populasi. Model pengajaran dengan nilai ilustratif yang dinyatakan, bukan prediksi.
Kendali
Pembacaan
| Langkah | Pangsa yang telah bertindak (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 |
| 2 | 22.5 |
| 3 | 40.0 |
| 4 | 55.8 |
| 5 | 69.8 |
| 6 | 83.0 |
| 7 | 92.5 |
| 8 | 97.5 |
| 9 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Di seluruh enam pilar, dipimpin oleh Nexus Consortium
Analisis diperiksa melalui analisis sensitivitas, tinjauan sejawat, dan pengawasan pemangku kepentingan. Tinjauan retrospektif membandingkan keputusan dengan hasilnya.
| Pemeriksaan | Cara pelaksanaannya |
|---|---|
| Analisis sensitivitas | Weights and probabilities are varied to show which of them drive the choice |
| Explicit value judgements | Each criterion and weight is recorded with who set it and why |
| Robustness across scenarios | Options are tested against several plausible futures, not one expected case |
| Tinjauan retrospektif | Decisions are compared with what followed, separating the quality of the judgement from the luck of the outcome |
Hasil bergantung pada probabilitas dan preferensi hasil elisitasi yang mungkin bias. Ketidakpastian mendalam dapat membuat perbandingan nilai harapan menyesatkan.
Model, asumsi, data, dan ketidakpastiannya, dalam bentuk yang akan diperiksa ilmuwan atau insinyur. Strukturnya mengikuti metode yang dipublikasikan. Nilai yang digambar bersifat ilustratif, bukan temuan.
The couplings between the systems in decision analysis for risk communication: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Manajemen Risiko Sistemik mengelola analisis keputusan dalam ketidakpastian untuk Konsorsium dan meninjau cara penerapannya di berbagai platform.
Laporan is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Jangan pernah mengirim data pribadi, rincian infrastruktur sensitif, atau apa pun yang tidak berhak Anda bagikan. Kontribusi ditinjau sebelum digunakan. Mengirimkannya tidak memberikan hak kepenulisan atau editorial, dan sponsor tidak pernah membeli sebuah temuan.
Informasi dan pertanyaan sudah terbuka hari ini. Sebuah pertanyaan menerima nomor referensi dan menyebutkan langkah berikutnya; lamaran, pembayaran, alokasi komputasi, dan pendaftaran hanya dibuka ketika tim, ketentuan, dan kapasitas tinjauannya tersedia.
Peta, data, dan gambar di situs ini ditampilkan untuk konteks dan informasi umum. Semua itu bukan nasihat, prakiraan, atau peringatan; batasan informasinya dijelaskan dalam Penafian dan Pemberitahuan Data.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information.
This site uses only strictly necessary cookies to work and to remember your privacy choices. Nothing loads from other companies, and we never sell or share your personal information. We run no advertising. You can review your choices at any time through Privacy choices at the foot of every page.