GCRI · Campaigns
Decision analysis under uncertainty structures the choices communicators and the authorities they serve must make: whether to speak before evidence settles, which audiences and channels to prioritise, and when to adapt or end a campaign. It makes trade-offs between reach, equity, cost and the risk of harm explicit and open to scrutiny.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In information and public trust and society and human development, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Early communication with stated uncertainty is weighed against waiting for better evidence, using value-of-information reasoning and the risks of silence, so the timing choice and its assumptions are on record.
Options are scored against reach, accessibility, equity, cost and risk of harm, with weights elicited from stakeholders, and the ranking is tested for sensitivity to those weights.
Decision points are set in advance with the evidence that would trigger adapting, continuing or ending a campaign, so later choices are not driven by sunk costs or favourable metrics alone.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Campaigns · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-2791
| Mirovên gihîştî | Lognormal | people, stated | berhevkirina nêrînên pisporan |
| Knowledge gain | Normal | score change, stated | berhevkirina nêrînên pisporan |
| Consent records complete | Lognormal | of participants, stated | berhevkirina nêrînên pisporan |
| Preparedness actions taken | Beta | of households, stated | berhevkirina nêrînên pisporan |
Datasets and records used by decision analysis under uncertainty on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Dane | Rol | Nîşan |
|---|---|---|
| Expert elicitation records | Judgements where data are thin | TEXMÎNKIRÎ |
| Stakeholder preference surveys | Weights on criteria such as reach, equity and cost | REPORTED |
| Pre-test and evaluation results | Evidence on how options perform | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ |
| Budget and resource records | What each option requires | Statîstîkên weşandî |
Her ajan dema ku têra têkiliyên wê kiriye tevdigere; guherînên piçûk di sînora navîn an di yên pêşîn de diyar dikin ka tevger herêmî dimîne an di nav nifûsê de kaskade dibe. Modela hînkirinê bi nirxên ronîker ên diyarkirî, ne pêşbînî.
Kontrol
Xwendin
| Gav | Beşa yên ku çalakî kirine (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 |
| 2 | 22.5 |
| 3 | 40.0 |
| 4 | 55.8 |
| 5 | 69.8 |
| 6 | 83.0 |
| 7 | 92.5 |
| 8 | 97.5 |
| 9 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
Li seranserê şeş stûnan, bi pêşengiya Nexus Consortium
Analyses are checked through sensitivity analysis, peer review and stakeholder scrutiny. Retrospective review compares decisions with outcomes.
| Kontrol bikin | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Analîza hesasiyetê | Weights and probabilities are varied to show which of them drive the choice |
| Explicit value judgements | Each criterion and weight is recorded with who set it and why |
| Robustness across scenarios | Options are tested against several plausible futures, not one expected case |
| Retrospective review | Decisions are compared with what followed, separating the quality of the judgement from the luck of the outcome |
Results depend on elicited probabilities and preferences that may be biased. Deep uncertainty can make expected value comparisons misleading.
Model, texmînên wî, daneyên wî û nediyariya wî, bi şeweyê ku zanyar an endezyar kontrol bike. Avahî rêbazên weşandî dişopînin. Nirxên hatine xêzkirin nimûneyî ne, ne encam in.
The couplings between the systems in decision analysis for risk communication: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
Rêveberiya xetera pergalî stewards decision analysis under uncertainty for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
rêzeya Pergalên Stratejîk is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
Tu carî daneyên şexsî, hûrgiliyên binesaza hesas an tiştekî ku mafê we yê parvekirinê tune ne neşînin. Beşdarî berî bikaranînê tê nirxandin; şandina wê nivîskarî an mafên edîtorî nade û sponsorî tu carî encamekê nakire.
Agahî û pirs îro vekirî ne. Pirsek referansekê distîne û gava piştî wê dide nasîn; serlêdan, drav, veqetandina hesabkirinê û tomarkirin tenê dema ku tîm, mercên wê û kapasîteya vekolînê hebin vedibin.
Nexşe, dane û jimarên vê malperê ji bo çarçoveyê û agahiyên giştî têne nîşandan. Ew ne şîret, ne pêşbînî û ne hişyarî ne; sînorên agahiyê di Daxuyaniyên Berpirsiyariyê û Daxuyaniyên Daneyê de hatine diyarkirin.
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