GCRI · Campaigns
Decision analysis under uncertainty structures the choices communicators and the authorities they serve must make: whether to speak before evidence settles, which audiences and channels to prioritise, and when to adapt or end a campaign. It makes trade-offs between reach, equity, cost and the risk of harm explicit and open to scrutiny.
Decision analysis under uncertainty provides structured methods for choosing among options when outcomes are uncertain and objectives conflict. It makes trade-offs and value judgements explicit. In information and public trust and society and human development, decision analysis helps choose actions that perform acceptably across interconnected risks and uncertain futures. It clarifies when to act now and when to keep options open. The canonical description is on STEM Commons.
Early communication with stated uncertainty is weighed against waiting for better evidence, using value-of-information reasoning and the risks of silence, so the timing choice and its assumptions are on record.
Options are scored against reach, accessibility, equity, cost and risk of harm, with weights elicited from stakeholders, and the ranking is tested for sensitivity to those weights.
Decision points are set in advance with the evidence that would trigger adapting, continuing or ending a campaign, so later choices are not driven by sunk costs or favourable metrics alone.
この手法を追跡するためにチームが使う画面：その指標、状態、決定。名前は例であり、値はイメージです。
Campaigns · Decision analysis for risk · Run R-2791
| 到達した人数 | 対数正規 | people, stated | 専門家の意見聴取 |
| Knowledge gain | 平常 | score change, stated | 専門家の意見聴取 |
| Consent records complete | 対数正規 | of participants, stated | 専門家の意見聴取 |
| Preparedness actions taken | Beta | of households, stated | 専門家の意見聴取 |
| データ | 役割 | ラベル |
|---|---|---|
| 専門家の意見聴取 記録 | Judgements where data are thin | 推定 |
| Stakeholder preference surveys | Weights on criteria such as reach, equity and cost | 報告値 |
| Pre-test and evaluation results | Evidence on how options perform | 観測 |
| Budget and resource records | What each option requires | 公表統計 |
各エージェントは、十分な数の接触相手が行動したときに行動します。平均しきい値や初期の行動者のわずかな変化が、その行動が局所にとどまるか集団全体に連鎖するかを決めます。例示的な値を明記した教材用モデルであり、予測ではありません。
管理策
読み取り値
| ステップ | 行動した人の割合（%） |
|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 8.0 |
| 2 | 22.5 |
| 3 | 40.0 |
| 4 | 55.8 |
| 5 | 69.8 |
| 6 | 83.0 |
| 7 | 92.5 |
| 8 | 97.5 |
| 9 | 100.0 |
| 10 | 100.0 |
No observed data enters this model: it runs on the teaching values set by the controls, to be replaced with a programme’s own evidence.
6 本の柱を通じて、Nexus Consortium が主導
| 確認 | 実施方法 |
|---|---|
| 感度分析 | Weights and probabilities are varied to show which of them drive the choice |
| Explicit value judgements | Each criterion and weight is recorded with who set it and why |
| Robustness across scenarios | Options are tested against several plausible futures, not one expected case |
| 遡及的レビュー | Decisions are compared with what followed, separating the quality of the judgement from the luck of the outcome |
結果は、バイアスを含みうる聴取した確率と選好に依存します。深い不確実性のもとでは、期待値の比較が誤解を招くことがあります。
モデル、その仮定、データ、不確実性を、科学者やエンジニアが確認する形で示します。構造は公表された手法に従っています。描かれた値は例示であり、知見ではありません。
The couplings between the systems in decision analysis for risk communication: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.
報告書 is the Consortium’s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
個人データ、重要インフラの機微な詳細、共有する権利のないものは決して送らないでください。寄稿は利用前にレビューされます。送付によって著作者としての権利や編集上の権利が生じることはなく、スポンサーシップで調査結果を買うことは決してできません。
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